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Monday snow event discussion/observations Feb. 3


Damage In Tolland

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Not sure yet.... I'm just getting up to speed. All of 4 viewers will catch my forecast at 6 p.m. up against the Super Bowl lol

Everyone will look to Twitter for their forecasts today. I can tell you in talking to parents at soccer today and bball yesterday.. No one had any idea we were going to see accumulating snow tomorrow
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Not sure yet.... I'm just getting up to speed. All of 4 viewers will catch my forecast at 6 p.m. up against the Super Bowl lol

 

Can't wait for bufkit to come out but looking at maps I don't really like those negative VV's in the lower levels...unless I'm just reading the scale wrong.  

 

I would be hesitant though on anything more than 1-3 widespread.  

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Everyone will look to Twitter for their forecasts today. I can tell you in talking to parents at soccer today and bball yesterday.. No one had any idea we were going to see accumulating snow tomorrow

 

I think we had accumulating snow in the forecast last night. 

 

How have the SREFs been with this? 

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The bump north in QPF really isn't all that great IMO.  It just means that some of us now have a shot to get 1-2''...perhaps a few spot 3'' amounts (which that is certainly better than nothing!) but this system is moving so quickly and we aren't really under this QPF long at all.  Maybe a few locals across coastal CT have a shot for 3'' amounts but further north...isolated but I don't think widespread.  

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48 even at ORH.

 

Post-frontal downslope dandy for most of SNE going on today. We never truly advect in a cold airmass before this Feb 3rd threat, so there could def be BL issues in the south coast initially...esp if the it is the 1 SM or greater vis light snow.

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Post-frontal downslope dandy for most of SNE going on today. We never truly advect in a cold airmass before this Feb 3rd threat, so there could def be BL issues in the south coast initially...esp if the it is the 1 SM or greater vis light snow.

 

Temp's dropped over 2.5* here in the last 30 minutes.

 

41.0/32 off a high of 43.7

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The bump north in QPF really isn't all that great IMO. It just means that some of us now have a shot to get 1-2''...perhaps a few spot 3'' amounts (which that is certainly better than nothing!) but this system is moving so quickly and we aren't really under this QPF long at all. Maybe a few locals across coastal CT have a shot for 3'' amounts but further north...isolated but I don't think widespread.

Its always been a 1-3 event until today where it's beefed up to 2-4
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Its always been a 1-3 event until today where it's beefed up to 2-4

 

I don't think it's always been a 1-3'' event for us.  While I agree we have continued to see the system and subsequently, QPF bump north, there was a time where it did appear the system would track just far enough south where we would miss out.  I know some of the in-house models (like Ryan's) since Friday showed 1-3'' statewide, but confidence then wasn't all that high.  

 

While I'll agree with the 1-3, I don't think there is enough evidence to support a 2-4'' event...I think 3-4'' totals would be very localized and won't be enough to really say "2-4".  

 

Although, honestly, there really isn't a tremendous difference between 1-3 and 2-4 really..pretty minute to really argue over anyway

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