CT Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I was surprised at how juicy the GFS QPF was... not bad! Widespread >0.25" for CT/RI/SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I was surprised at how juicy the GFS QPF was... not bad! Widespread >0.25" for CT/RI/SE Mass. It really beefed up on QPF, NWS Taunton is going to have to change their thinking with regards to the QPF output. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 I was surprised at how juicy the GFS QPF was... not bad! Widespread >0.25" for CT/RI/SE Mass.You thinking 2-4 north and 3-6 south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You thinking 2-4 north and 3-6 south? Not sure yet.... I'm just getting up to speed. All of 4 viewers will catch my forecast at 6 p.m. up against the Super Bowl lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not sure yet.... I'm just getting up to speed. All of 4 viewers will catch my forecast at 6 p.m. up against the Super Bowl lolEveryone will look to Twitter for their forecasts today. I can tell you in talking to parents at soccer today and bball yesterday.. No one had any idea we were going to see accumulating snow tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't see temps as being an issue with this coastal storm. 3-6" seems reasonable. It would be snow, but it may be like a 34F snow to start out is what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not sure yet.... I'm just getting up to speed. All of 4 viewers will catch my forecast at 6 p.m. up against the Super Bowl lol Can't wait for bufkit to come out but looking at maps I don't really like those negative VV's in the lower levels...unless I'm just reading the scale wrong. I would be hesitant though on anything more than 1-3 widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Everyone will look to Twitter for their forecasts today. I can tell you in talking to parents at soccer today and bball yesterday.. No one had any idea we were going to see accumulating snow tomorrow I think we had accumulating snow in the forecast last night. How have the SREFs been with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not sure yet.... I'm just getting up to speed. All of 4 viewers will catch my forecast at 6 p.m. up against the Super Bowl lollol watch Frozen race from SR on NBC at 4 I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah Scott, I see what you mean. CTRain the SREFs have been pretty steady since yesterday the .25" line tickles the South Coast of New England. Not much more than that, with the .5" line not far from the .25" line, so its a real tight gradient. 12z GFS is actually further north than the SREFs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think we had accumulating snow in the forecast last night. How have the SREFs been with this? Theyve actually been tame with Qpf but I think the nam members were skewing them since the nam had been so far south of all other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The bump north in QPF really isn't all that great IMO. It just means that some of us now have a shot to get 1-2''...perhaps a few spot 3'' amounts (which that is certainly better than nothing!) but this system is moving so quickly and we aren't really under this QPF long at all. Maybe a few locals across coastal CT have a shot for 3'' amounts but further north...isolated but I don't think widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice move for the southern folks. Looks like some flurries up here. Would be funny if this came way far north and suprrised folks. I'll keep my hopes on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Scott makes valid points about the issues with surface temps maybe limiting accumulations. With that concern excluded until later in the day it looks like 2-4 or 3-5" here, IMO. But will have to monitor, it is torching today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 48 even at ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 48 even at ORH. Post-frontal downslope dandy for most of SNE going on today. We never truly advect in a cold airmass before this Feb 3rd threat, so there could def be BL issues in the south coast initially...esp if the it is the 1 SM or greater vis light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 48 even at ORH. Downslope dandy. I am skeptical of more than a trace imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Post-frontal downslope dandy for most of SNE going on today. We never truly advect in a cold airmass before this Feb 3rd threat, so there could def be BL issues in the south coast initially...esp if the it is the 1 SM or greater vis light snow. Temp's dropped over 2.5* here in the last 30 minutes. 41.0/32 off a high of 43.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 The bump north in QPF really isn't all that great IMO. It just means that some of us now have a shot to get 1-2''...perhaps a few spot 3'' amounts (which that is certainly better than nothing!) but this system is moving so quickly and we aren't really under this QPF long at all. Maybe a few locals across coastal CT have a shot for 3'' amounts but further north...isolated but I don't think widespread.Its always been a 1-3 event until today where it's beefed up to 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Its always been a 1-3 event until today where it's beefed up to 2-4 I don't think it's always been a 1-3'' event for us. While I agree we have continued to see the system and subsequently, QPF bump north, there was a time where it did appear the system would track just far enough south where we would miss out. I know some of the in-house models (like Ryan's) since Friday showed 1-3'' statewide, but confidence then wasn't all that high. While I'll agree with the 1-3, I don't think there is enough evidence to support a 2-4'' event...I think 3-4'' totals would be very localized and won't be enough to really say "2-4". Although, honestly, there really isn't a tremendous difference between 1-3 and 2-4 really..pretty minute to really argue over anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Whoa! Euro is super juiced tomorrow. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Whoa! Euro is super juiced tomorrow. Wow. Yeah just saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Juiced and cold! I may have to pay more attention... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 0.25 to almost BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Half inch near Meriden CT to CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 South coast get nailed on the Euro. Looks like 0.5-0.6" QPF. Almost warning criteria Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NYC looks in he crosshairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Euro would give 3-6 to border and 4-8 s ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Half inch near Meriden CT to CC. What are 6-HR QPF totals like (or 12-HR totals)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Get the wsw up!! Model blend is only ~0.3" on the south coast. 0.1" for you.Temps near 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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