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Monday snow event discussion/observations Feb. 3


Damage In Tolland

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Euro and ens, cmc all bring up to an inch to the pike, a bit more south. Not sure what the fighting is about. Srefs trending that way as well. If you are tossing everything but the nam give us a tippified reason.

Discussing, clarification, no fighting, just making sure Jay knows most modeling is 1-3 right now. Pre event for the big dogs

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Discussing, clarification, no fighting, just making sure Jay knows most modeling is 1-3 right now. Pre event for the big dogs

Yeah I agree me and you are just discussing. I am very pessimistic on this one. Who knows. We'll have a better idea soon. I don't buy the north trend yet. Maybe it will verify or maybe it is a tease. Just leaning on the tease side.

I'm fairly certain he didn't look at it.

 

he's tried to get this one to miss us and on the Wed threat he's posted the pike south gets screwed. Wonder where he lives?

 

I don't see any reason why one wouldn't forecast 1-3 from the pike south based upon the good model agreement.

Your reasoning couldn't be more azz backwards? If I'm in Andover why would I be rooting the 3rd south? 

 

The 5th is a SWFE and those usually tend to be better north of the pike. Do you disagree or agree?

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it sounds like you have the weenie goggles on kev thats all. 

 

GFS is cape islands maybe extreme south coast. GGEM is .1-.2. Your going to tell me the Euro has been good this year? 

 

So realistically there is hardly a consensus at this stage for 1-3" ANYWHERE NEAR the pike. I'd say there is an outside chance with the current consensus that you see an inch and an even more extreme chance you see two inches.

You're tossing the euro into the cmc nogaps pile...lol. It's had some burps but on most events close in it won.

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Yeah I agree me and you are just discussing. I am very pessimistic on this one. Who knows. We'll have a better idea soon. I don't buy the north trend yet. Maybe it will verify or maybe it is a tease. Just leaning on the tease side.

Your reasoning couldn't be more azz backwards? If I'm in Andover why would I be rooting the 3rd south? 

 

The 5th is a SWFE and those usually tend to be better north of the pike. Do you disagree or agree?

What i am saying is there's been 2 very obvious trends the last 24 hours.

1) To get the Feb 3rd event with at least 1-2 inches up to the Mass pike. Every piece of guidance continues to come north

 

2)To trend the Feb 5th event colder,less amped and snowier..with less in the way of ice. Now maybe it trneds back north or maybe it doesn't..but across the board it is now a colder solution for everyone. 24 hours ago it was a rain event for the cape 

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What i am saying is there's been 2 very obvious trends the last 24 hours.

1) To get the Feb 3rd event with at least 1-2 inches up to the Mass pike. Every piece of guidance continues to come north

 

2)To trend the Feb 5th event colder,less amped and snowier..with less in the way of ice. Now maybe it trneds back north or maybe it doesn't..but across the board it is now a colder solution for everyone. 24 hours ago it was a rain event for the cape 

I agree with both 1 and 2. Do not buy either yet. Would I like to? Absolutely.

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Can you feel the love tonight? The new Kevin is the much older Kevin, I like

It's hard to bite my tongue and not have fun or make jokes..even when I see all the other posters joining in on the charades..but I  said i will abide by the new rules and I will.

 

This event reminds me of that early/mid Dec event. I don't remember the exact date..but there was a nice stripe of 2-4 inch snows from ENY over to about NW Ri. There was a decent fronto band in that one..and this looks like it has the same basic premise

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It's hard to bite my tongue and not have fun or make jokes..even when I see all the other posters joining in on the charades..but I  said i will abide by the new rules and I will.

 

This event reminds me of that early/mid Dec event. I don't remember the exact date..but there was a nice stripe of 2-4 inch snows from ENY over to about NW Ri. There was a decent fronto band in that one..and this looks like it has the same basic premise

12/10, yea be cool.

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Man I haven't done well betting against the north trend lol. Just when it looks like it should not happen...it does.

 

May have to start going against your forecast like I do with JB.  ;)

 

Looks like another nice general snowfall. Cutoff won't be as sharp with this one.  1-3/2-4 seems pretty safe...actually very "safe" conservative for now with 2 days to go.

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I can think of 3 storms this year where in Ct anyway..it started as the kids were getting on the bus..or like 30 minutes after that.. I'd guess they send home early..and then called off Wed.

Love this pattern.. Less cold and more snow

During the 2-7" event on cape cod the other day there wasn't a delay aside of the vineyard. Roads were a mess. They'll be more cautious this time.

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Boundary will be sagging S over the day tomorrow so initial precip may be rain for some before we cool.  Think most S of the Pike see at least a little snow out of this.  1", perhaps 2" right now.  This has some similarities to the other day minus the antecedent airmass.  Modeled QPF looks similar.

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Boundary will be sagging S over the day tomorrow so initial precip may be rain for some before we cool.  Think most S of the Pike see at least a little snow out of this.  1", perhaps 2" right now.  This has some similarities to the other day minus the antecedent airmass.  Modeled QPF looks similar.

I'll take a nice coating to prep for the Tues/Wed event; was not expecting anything up this way, so I'll take what I can get

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