ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think the 00z ECMWF qpf totals will end up too aggressive. I like the 12z NAM as something pretty close to reality. I'm expecting about an inch, maybe two, in the pike region with advisory amounts in the 2-4/3-5 range for N CT, N RI and SE MA..though some spots in SE MA south of BOX may get in on slightly higher jacks as well as S RI and parts os S CT...esp just inland with a couple hundred feet of elevation. It will be interesting to watch though. The stuff in N PA/C PA is looking healthier in recent frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think the 00z ECMWF qpf totals will end up too aggressive. I like the 12z NAM as something pretty close to reality. I'm expecting about an inch, maybe two, in the pike region with advisory amounts in the 2-4/3-5 range for N CT, N RI and SE MA..though some spots in SE MA south of BOX may get in on slightly higher jacks as well as S RI and parts os S CT...esp just inland with a couple hundred feet of elevation. It will be interesting to watch though. The stuff in N PA/C PA is looking healthier in recent frames. Death band is robbing moisture north of about Long Island. Could be a problem if it continues. So far not effecting things in se ma but it could monkey with totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think the 00z ECMWF qpf totals will end up too aggressive. I like the 12z NAM as something pretty close to reality. I'm expecting about an inch, maybe two, in the pike region with advisory amounts in the 2-4/3-5 range for N CT, N RI and SE MA..though some spots in SE MA south of BOX may get in on slightly higher jacks as well as S RI and parts os S CT...esp just inland with a couple hundred feet of elevation. It will be interesting to watch though. The stuff in N PA/C PA is looking healthier in recent frames. BOX actually lowered snow amounts and dropped the advisory in Windham CTY..Wonder if they will re-issue it and expand it to Mass border like it should have been from the get go..or just let it ride. Interesting stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That's basically what I am hoping for..a couple of inches. Someone in int SE MA will do real well as Will alluded to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Steady light snow has begun here. Visibility dropping steadily to probably about 1 mile now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 BOX actually lowered snow amounts and dropped the advisory in Windham CTY..Wonder if they will re-issue it and expand it to Mass border like it should have been from the get go..or just let it ride. Interesting stuff Funny thing is they finally put out advisories for the cape. Not the best showing out of Taunton. Win some you lose someCaution is warranted in some areas. Moisture piling up south and over Long Island but having hard time getting out of coastal ct 0z euro IMO has little hope of verifying to the north unless this really erupts about now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Steady flurries in Wrentham. Make that steady light snow, Efficient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Light to moderate snow. Mediocre growth at the moment. 1.5" otg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwoman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 light snow and 3" in Ansonia Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 000FXUS61 KBOX 031500AFDBOXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA1000 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL PASS WELLSOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TOIMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BELOWNORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE AROUND NEXT SUNDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...10 AM UPDATE...MAIN BAND OF SNOW ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOUTH OFNEW ENG WITH NORTHERN EDGE INTO THE SOUTH COASTAL REGION OF RI ANDMA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FORCING AND FGEN WILL NOTADVANCE MUCH FURTHER N FROM WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY SO EXPECT ASHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.TEMPS ALOFT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND RAIN CHANGED TO SNOWSHORTLY AFTER ONSET DUE TO DIABATIC/DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES.BUT DO HAVE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES...MAINLY OVER THE ISLANDSWHICH WILL CUT BACK ON SNOW ACCUM DESPITE HEAVIER QPF.WE LOWERED AMOUNTS N OF IJD-PVD-TAN WHERE A SHARP CUT OFF ISEXPECTED GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OFFRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR NE CT ANDNORTHERN RI...BUT ADDED CAPE COD WHERE SOME 2-4" AMOUNTSLIKELY...ESPECIALLY HYA WEST. GENERALLY 2-4" IN THE ADVISORY AREAALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS INTERIOR SWRI AND S COASTAL MA. 1-2" N CT...N RI AND INTERIOR SE MA WITHLESS THAN 1" MASS PIKE NWD.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 000 FXUS61 KBOX 031500 AFDBOX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1000 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL PASS WELL SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE AROUND NEXT SUNDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 10 AM UPDATE... MAIN BAND OF SNOW ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOUTH OF NEW ENG WITH NORTHERN EDGE INTO THE SOUTH COASTAL REGION OF RI AND MA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FORCING AND FGEN WILL NOT ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER N FROM WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY SO EXPECT A SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS SNE. TEMPS ALOFT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW SHORTLY AFTER ONSET DUE TO DIABATIC/DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES. BUT DO HAVE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES...MAINLY OVER THE ISLANDS WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON SNOW ACCUM DESPITE HEAVIER QPF. WE LOWERED AMOUNTS N OF IJD-PVD-TAN WHERE A SHARP CUT OFF IS EXPECTED GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR NE CT AND NORTHERN RI...BUT ADDED CAPE COD WHERE SOME 2-4" AMOUNTS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY HYA WEST. GENERALLY 2-4" IN THE ADVISORY AREA ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS INTERIOR SW RI AND S COASTAL MA. 1-2" N CT...N RI AND INTERIOR SE MA WITH LESS THAN 1" MASS PIKE NWD. && They need a geography lesson. They keep excluding upper Barnstable county from their advisories this winter. We will make their forecast min within the hour. Leads to bad decisions by school planners in Bourne and Plymouth. Plymouth will often follow Bourne and when the area over the bridges that keeps getting pounded has no advisory....Happening multiple systems in a row. Not good. Barnstable county extends over the bridge...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Dropped advisory from ne ct to n ri ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Dropped advisory from ne ct to n ri ? Baffling..Maybe they'll reissue it and uncancel the cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Getting into some nice snow now..Moderate..Viz down under a mile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Down to 1/2mi. SPECI KTAN 031511Z AUTO 36004KT 1/2SM SN FG SCT007 OVC014 01/M01 A3018 RMK AO2 P0002 T00061006 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Down to 1/2mi. SPECI KTAN 031511Z AUTO 36004KT 1/2SM SN FG SCT007 OVC014 01/M01 A3018 RMK AO2 P0002 T00061006 Best north push commencing near okx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Baffling..Maybe they'll reissue it and uncancel the cancel? Well i was surprised but they are the pros Maybe messenger has better case for Barnstable county. Best banding i see north of s coast to se mass right now is near Springfield ma ..downstream BGM looks sorta weak and upton is ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 In Plainfield CT 1 new, moderate snow, visibility very low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I am perplexed, NE CT already at advisory level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Intensity has picked up a bit. Solidly moderate currently. Noticed that OKX has issued a watch for Wednesday. Really fun to be under advisories for two separate events concurrently. That doesn't happen two often. And then there's that weekend potential . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 In Plainfield CT 1 new, moderate snow, visibility very low In Bedford MA 0 new, visibility orgasmic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Next to nothing on the ground over here. Not even a 1/4 inch and it's been snowing for almost 2 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I am perplexed, NE CT already at advisory level Ktan pulling a Peyton manning with this one. Too worried about the next play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leesun Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I am perplexed, NE CT already at advisory level And much of N. CT that they have 1-2" are already there. I think 2-4" is a reasonable call across the northern half of CT north of 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I am perplexed, NE CT already at advisory level There's already an average of 3 inches new in Windham county? That would be advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yukon Cornelius Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Light snow has commenced. 29F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Radar looking better quickly out of Taunton and okx. Nice bulge into sw coastal ct too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 In Bedford MA 0 new, visibility orgasmic.regression to the mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmarkbuoy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Glad for the southern folks getting in on this, but I gotta admit..It has been a brutal month north of the pike. It's one thing that we have not had a storm in over a month, but all the more frustrating is how close all four of them came and stopped just short. Pattern of persistence. Philly - CNJ - Montauk - Taunton. Lather-Rinse-Repeat. Hopefully we break our string of being on the NW fringe tomorrow but my goodness enough already with these southern sliders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KartAnimal29 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 And much of N. CT that they have 1-2" are already there. I think 2-4" is a reasonable call across the northern half of CT north of 84 I think I'll be lucky to get 2 inches with the way it's coming down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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