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Monday snow event discussion/observations Feb. 3


Damage In Tolland

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I think the 00z ECMWF qpf totals will end up too aggressive. I like the 12z NAM as something pretty close to reality. I'm expecting about an inch, maybe two, in the pike region with advisory amounts in the 2-4/3-5 range for N CT, N RI and SE MA..though some spots in SE MA south of BOX may get in on slightly higher jacks as well as S RI and parts os S CT...esp just inland with a couple hundred feet of elevation.

 

It will be interesting to watch though. The stuff in N PA/C PA is looking healthier in recent frames.

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I think the 00z ECMWF qpf totals will end up too aggressive. I like the 12z NAM as something pretty close to reality. I'm expecting about an inch, maybe two, in the pike region with advisory amounts in the 2-4/3-5 range for N CT, N RI and SE MA..though some spots in SE MA south of BOX may get in on slightly higher jacks as well as S RI and parts os S CT...esp just inland with a couple hundred feet of elevation.

It will be interesting to watch though. The stuff in N PA/C PA is looking healthier in recent frames.

Death band is robbing moisture north of about Long Island. Could be a problem if it continues. So far not effecting things in se ma but it could monkey with totals.

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I think the 00z ECMWF qpf totals will end up too aggressive. I like the 12z NAM as something pretty close to reality. I'm expecting about an inch, maybe two, in the pike region with advisory amounts in the 2-4/3-5 range for N CT, N RI and SE MA..though some spots in SE MA south of BOX may get in on slightly higher jacks as well as S RI and parts os S CT...esp just inland with a couple hundred feet of elevation.

 

It will be interesting to watch though. The stuff in N PA/C PA is looking healthier in recent frames.

BOX actually lowered snow amounts and dropped the advisory in Windham CTY..Wonder if they will re-issue it and expand it to Mass border like it should have been from the get go..or just let it ride.

 

Interesting stuff

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BOX actually lowered snow amounts and dropped the advisory in Windham CTY..Wonder if they will re-issue it and expand it to Mass border like it should have been from the get go..or just let it ride.

Interesting stuff

Funny thing is they finally put out advisories for the cape. Not the best showing out of Taunton. Win some you lose some

Caution is warranted in some areas. Moisture piling up south and over Long Island but having hard time getting out of coastal ct

0z euro IMO has little hope of verifying to the north unless this really erupts about now

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000
FXUS61 KBOX 031500
AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
1000 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL PASS WELL
SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW
ACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO
IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.
ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE AROUND NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
10 AM UPDATE...
MAIN BAND OF SNOW ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOUTH OF
NEW ENG WITH NORTHERN EDGE INTO THE SOUTH COASTAL REGION OF RI AND
MA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FORCING AND FGEN WILL NOT
ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER N FROM WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY SO EXPECT A
SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TEMPS ALOFT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW
SHORTLY AFTER ONSET DUE TO DIABATIC/DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES.
BUT DO HAVE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES...MAINLY OVER THE ISLANDS
WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON SNOW ACCUM DESPITE HEAVIER QPF.

WE LOWERED AMOUNTS N OF IJD-PVD-TAN WHERE A SHARP CUT OFF IS
EXPECTED GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR NE CT AND
NORTHERN RI...BUT ADDED CAPE COD WHERE SOME 2-4" AMOUNTS
LIKELY...ESPECIALLY HYA WEST. GENERALLY 2-4" IN THE ADVISORY AREA
ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS INTERIOR SW
RI AND S COASTAL MA. 1-2" N CT...N RI AND INTERIOR SE MA WITH
LESS THAN 1" MASS PIKE NWD.


&&

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000

FXUS61 KBOX 031500

AFDBOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA

1000 AM EST MON FEB 3 2014

.SYNOPSIS...

LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVING ALONG A STALLED FRONT WILL PASS WELL

SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW

ACROSS THE REGION. A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS EXPECTED TO

IMPACT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. BELOW

NORMAL TEMPERATURES THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

ANOTHER WINTER STORM IS POSSIBLE AROUND NEXT SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

10 AM UPDATE...

MAIN BAND OF SNOW ASSOCD WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS IS SOUTH OF

NEW ENG WITH NORTHERN EDGE INTO THE SOUTH COASTAL REGION OF RI AND

MA. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MID LEVEL FORCING AND FGEN WILL NOT

ADVANCE MUCH FURTHER N FROM WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY SO EXPECT A

SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT ACROSS SNE.

TEMPS ALOFT PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND RAIN CHANGED TO SNOW

SHORTLY AFTER ONSET DUE TO DIABATIC/DYNAMIC COOLING PROCESSES.

BUT DO HAVE SOME BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES...MAINLY OVER THE ISLANDS

WHICH WILL CUT BACK ON SNOW ACCUM DESPITE HEAVIER QPF.

WE LOWERED AMOUNTS N OF IJD-PVD-TAN WHERE A SHARP CUT OFF IS

EXPECTED GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF

FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING. WE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR NE CT AND

NORTHERN RI...BUT ADDED CAPE COD WHERE SOME 2-4" AMOUNTS

LIKELY...ESPECIALLY HYA WEST. GENERALLY 2-4" IN THE ADVISORY AREA

ALONG THE SOUTH COAST WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS INTERIOR SW

RI AND S COASTAL MA. 1-2" N CT...N RI AND INTERIOR SE MA WITH

LESS THAN 1" MASS PIKE NWD.

&&

They need a geography lesson. They keep excluding upper Barnstable county from their advisories this winter. We will make their forecast min within the hour. Leads to bad decisions by school planners in Bourne and Plymouth. Plymouth will often follow Bourne and when the area over the bridges that keeps getting pounded has no advisory....

Happening multiple systems in a row. Not good. Barnstable county extends over the bridge......

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Baffling..Maybe they'll reissue it and uncancel the cancel?

Well i was surprised but they are the pros

Maybe messenger has better case for Barnstable county.

Best banding i see north of s coast to se mass right now is near Springfield ma ..downstream BGM looks sorta weak and upton is ok.

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Glad for the southern folks getting in on this, but I gotta admit..It has been a brutal month north of the pike.  It's one thing that we have not had a storm in over a month, but all the more frustrating is how close all four of them came and stopped just short.  Pattern of persistence.  Philly - CNJ - Montauk - Taunton.  Lather-Rinse-Repeat.

 

Hopefully we break our string of being on the NW fringe tomorrow but my goodness enough already with these southern sliders.

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