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Monday snow event discussion/observations Feb. 3


Damage In Tolland

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both RAP and HRRR ticking the PA/NY total snowfall north ~ 10-20 miles for past several runs... extrapolating the most recent 5Z HRRR / 6Z RAP runs puts southeast MA comfortably in 3-4"

Yeah was just noticing that too.

Box going for advisories but not on the cape. 2-4" southern Bristol and Plymouth and RI. Still seems low to me but oh well. Better than what's been in place up until now.

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It's a bizarro world. All I can figure is they think much is eaten up by rain. Otherwise it makes no sense.

 

yeah the AFD comments on iffy boundary layer but per upstream obs in the northwest Philly burbs temps came down and switch occurred pretty quickly

 

"Plenty of support for precipitation but borderline temperatures limit confidence

in precipitation type. Surface temperatures are starting in the 30s but are below

freezing above 1000 feet...and the air is dry enough for temperatures to

cool to 30-32 degrees once the precipitation starts. Expect most of the

precipitation to be snow...but some rain possible at the start especially

along the South Coast and the islands. This rain would hold down

accumulations from full potential. But the available precipitation will be

highest near the coast and to the south over the ocean."

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It looks good down south. I'm a little up in the air with how far this bumps north. Your call looks good for now.

It's tricky..if you look at radar you can see it fill in off to my NW..I think 1-2 inches gets at least to ORH to BOS line. the Euro has .40 up to that line..so you've pretty much got to ride it. 

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I'm very skeptical of anything more than light to moderate pushing north to the Boston metro despite the overnight runs pushing some modest QPF up here. But if it does make it up here, wet bulbs are right around freezing so if it comes down with any intensity it'll have no problem accumulating.

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Euro seems a little too bullish to me.

 

 

Agreed...but we'll find out in about 2-3 hours.

 

It took the other guidance to the woodshed in this after doing it on the weekend system (taking that over Toronto when the GFS was trying to give us snow)....might be getting its mojo back. Hope its right about that final 20 mile push north, but I'm mostly thinking an inch or two of slop near the pike vs advisory stuff.

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Agreed...but we'll find out in about 2-3 hours.

 

It took the other guidance to the woodshed in this after doing it on the weekend system (taking that over Toronto when the GFS was trying to give us snow)....might be getting its mojo back. Hope its right about that final 20 mile push north, but I'm mostly thinking an inch or two of slop near the pike vs advisory stuff.

 

I'll be really impressed if it nails this.

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