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Monday snow event discussion/observations Feb. 3


Damage In Tolland

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good time tomorrow aftn. NAM/ HiresNAM and RGEM look about the same. SREFs not as robust.

 

SREFs now that the WRF component replaced earlier ETA runs...should just be flipped off during the winter.  It's totally useless.

 

new GFS is .25 Pike south...with .5 tickling the south coast.  There will be at least one nice band in the area between the pike and south coast that's going to dump significantly more than is forecast.  Temps could be the problem here but I fully expect 4-8" totals with spot 5-10" where cold isn't an issue.

 

Those areas are now currently forecast to receive an inch or maybe two.

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GFS is way wetter.  RGEM way wetter, NAM way wetter.

 

Time for advisories or warnings.  This was my fear earlier.  Most of the public will wake up to ZERO advance notice. 

 

My mom works for a school district in C NJ, and she already got a call today at 8pm that schools are closed tomorrow.

 

maybe SNE general public might be ill prepared, though.

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I'm still perplexed by what Box is worrying about in many of their zones.  Sure coastal PYM may have an issue with temps.  But Bristol CTY and all of RI and interior SE CT is going to get cold fast and pound. 

 

They're waiting on a fuller set of data but the first drops/flakes start flying soon. 

 

Geez...they sound like me with the sun angle stuff.

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I'm still perplexed by what Box is worrying about in many of their zones.  Sure coastal PYM may have an issue with temps.  But Bristol CTY and all of RI and interior SE CT is going to get cold fast and pound. 

 

They're waiting on a fuller set of data but the first drops/flakes start flying soon. 

 

Geez...they sound like me with the sun angle stuff.

Scott little treat, today because of the Super Bowl, nested Nam run.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

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Scott little treat, today because of the Super Bowl, nested Nam run.

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/

Suppose at this point that might as well wait until the euro. Damage is done and people are in bed. May as well stick the landing so to speak.

That .5 line is about where I think the best banding is going to set up.

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Need some sleep before tomorrow's big snowstorm. NWS waiting for EURO to come in and then likely issue warnings for South Coast of MA, and RI zones.

You and I may still have temp issues. Just to my west should clean up. We may be okay too.

Advisories should at the very least be going up. Snows into tomorrow evening here

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The RAP and the HRRR just crush central NJ tomorrow morning. Ouch.

Not a huge fan of the hrrr it was too far south the last few systems with the heaviest band here. Rap somehow was better. But I still think this will come in a little north in the end.

Southern Rhode Island into interior southern Bristol county may be the jackpot in the box zones with 4-8 or 5-10

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