Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Taunton will need to get off the stick soon. People need to know what's incoming. Dude how can we trust the NAM at all, Geez man that's a pounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 There will be 6+ inch surprises tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Dude how can we trust the NAM at all, Geez man that's a pounding according to some in the NYC subforum it is inline with the hi-res short range models. however Im smart enough to know the NAM is known for having a QPF crap during a storm threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Dude how can we trust the NAM at all, Geez man that's a pounding Rgem and euro were very good hits too especially with banding figured in. I've got temp issues as Scott has mentioned but interior se areas should be good for 4-8 etc. And maybe ri and ct too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I looked back 3 days, 350 mile shift N on the GFS alone, what the heck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 i hope i get in on the goods....im gonna go crazy if theres a foot in south central ct or ri and less than an inch up here....my god i think the snow reign of lower ct is about to continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I looked back 3 days, 350 mile shift N on the GFS alone, what the heck Every marginal threat this year has done the same. This will have a band of 5/10 on the northern fringe. Like I said time to get off the stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Every marginal threat this year has done the same. This will have a band of 5/10 on the northern fringe. Like I said time to get off the stick My p&c has accumulations of around an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Every marginal threat this year has done the same. This will have a band of 5/10 on the northern fringe. Like I said time to get off the stick 5 to 10? On n fringe.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connecticut Appleman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It surely seems like a lot of people are going to be caught off guard tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Don't schools rely on box for forecasts and information? If so, many are probably unaware of potential if of what's coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Don't schools rely on box for forecasts and information? If so, many are probably unaware of potential if of what's comingDifferent districts do it in different ways. Many hire private contractors. Some use BOX. Some (cough cough Quabbin) use the Farmers Almanac it seems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Different districts do it in different ways. Many hire private contractors. Some use BOX. Some (cough cough Quabbin) use the Farmers Almanac it seems LOL can you actually imagine if the farmers almanac was strictly used. That would be great. But on a serious note, that makes sense. Private contractors never crossed my mind at first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Lol dave Banding tomm am, what do Ratiio's look like 700 temps -6 to -8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 My uncle was a super in S RI a few years back. He watched the TV mets and would drive around the district at 4-5 AM before calling it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Walt Drag, yikes WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST AND IF YOU BELIEVE THE NAM...NOT ENOUGH! WE'LL AWAIT 00Z/3 GFS AND WWD GUIDANCE BEFORE ANY MORE CHANGES. WE ADDED A TIER OF ADVISORY ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WARNING AREA BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE OF ADVY. MY CONCERN IS PHILLY NORTH TO ALLENTOWN AND NEW BRUNSWICK. ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE VOLUME OF 00Z/3 NAM QPF. SNOW GROWTH LOOKS VERY GOOD (20MB AT -14C) ON THE NAM NOW IN MOST OF OUR AREA...E PA AND NW NJ CENTERED JUST NW OF I95 AT 12Z MOVES JUST SE OF I95 AT 15Z AND OUT TO SEA AT 18Z. THIS HAS ME THINKING A 2-3 HR OF 1/4 S+ IN MANY AREAS DURING THE MORNING. THE GFS NEEDS TO CONFIRM BUT I AM PREPARED TO SEE THAT DEVELOP. FOR THOSE QUESTIONING THE WARM THICKNESS AND FCSTG HEAVY SNOW...THAT BOTHERS ME AS WELL BUT MY INTERPRETATION OF PCPN MICROPHYSICS IS IF THE COLUMN IS AT OR BELOW ZERO AND SEEDED WITH CRYSTALS FROM ABV... ANY ZL-/IP- ZR- CHANGES TO SNOW. THE THICKNESS IS HIGH BECAUSE THE ONCOMING SHORT WAVE IS WEAK (70M HFC) AND HEIGHTS (850-700 THICKNESS WARM) ARE HIGH LEAVING THE ENTIRE COLUMN AT MARGINAL JUST SUBZERO IN THE I95 AREA NWD. CIRRUS UPSTREAM IN THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SEEN ON 02Z SATELLITE IMAGERY IS YOUR SEEDER. THE DRIVERS FOR THE LIFT APPEAR TO ME TO BE THE 180 KT 250MB JET STREAK THRU MAINE AT 12Z MONDAY AND THE SW 850 WIND OF 50-55KT IN W NC AT 12Z MONDAY PUSHING 9C 850 DEWPOINT OUR WAY...WITH TREMENDOUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AT 12Z MONDAY. WATCH FOR POSSIBLE POWER PROBLEMS IN THE 6 INCH WET SNOW ZONE DOWN HERE SOMEWHERE IN S CENTRAL NJ WHERE POWER OUTAGES MAY DEVELOP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah Steve...down his way it looks very good...very impressive lift and forcing...that's where the good amounts will be...someone will get near 10"" in that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm very impressed with things. This is sort of a weird storm but it has a lot of things going for it. Really nice moisture connection, good PWAT anomalies, and decent snow growth/efficient precip production for the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah Steve...down his way it looks very good...very impressive lift and forcing...that's where the good amounts will be...someone will get near 10"" in that areaWiz his Northern Zones translate to SCT on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wiz his Northern Zones translate to SCT on the NAM I'm on mobile but besides QPF...how does lift look? Is there much stronger omega and VV's further north? I've been pretty adament in my call...and unless I'm completely looking at everything wrong I just can't see us getting smashed beyond what I made my nap...if I end up being wrong I will not post in the winter again. I just don't see what I'm misskng Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Drag is on the ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z rgem pushes .4+ into sne. It's well north of the 12z. Assuming 10 to 1 and banding they need to put up advisories for 3-6 or even 4-8. Spot 5-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just to clarify, with the push north is this still primarily a CT/RI/SEMA situation for plowable snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think the GFS is going to come in even wetter. This thing is super juicy. A weird storm where the lift and look is sort of meh but it is just loaded with moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think the GFS is going to come in even wetter. This thing is super juicy. A weird storm where the lift and look is sort of meh but it is just loaded with moisture. It's a double edged sword for my area. It's not that cold either so I think the "dry" aspect was overplayed by BOX. So we may see some areas where temps are an issue but I don't understand the low totals earlier at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think the GFS is going to come in even wetter. This thing is super juicy. A weird storm where the lift and look is sort of meh but it is just loaded with moisture. Nam Bufkiit is 4.2 BDL 7.2 IJD 9.3 Stamford 8.2 GON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS is way wetter. RGEM way wetter, NAM way wetter. Time for advisories or warnings. This was my fear earlier. Most of the public will wake up to ZERO advance notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 good time tomorrow aftn. NAM/ HiresNAM and RGEM look about the same. SREFs not as robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 good time tomorrow aftn. NAM/ HiresNAM and RGEM look about the same. SREFs not as robust. What are your thoughts for us? I was thinking 1-2 earlier, starting to think that may be quite low now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Okx went WSW for LI NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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