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Monday snow event discussion/observations Feb. 3


Damage In Tolland

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Different districts do it in different ways. Many hire private contractors. Some use BOX. Some (cough cough Quabbin) use the Farmers Almanac it seems

LOL can you actually imagine if the farmers almanac was strictly used. That would be great.

But on a serious note, that makes sense. Private contractors never crossed my mind at first

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Walt Drag, yikes WINTER STORM WARNING EXPANDED NORTH AND WEST AND IF YOU BELIEVE

THE NAM...NOT ENOUGH! WE'LL AWAIT 00Z/3 GFS AND WWD GUIDANCE

BEFORE ANY MORE CHANGES. WE ADDED A TIER OF ADVISORY ON THE

SOUTHERN EDGE OF WARNING AREA BUT AM LESS CONFIDENT THERE OF

ADVY.

MY CONCERN IS PHILLY NORTH TO ALLENTOWN AND NEW BRUNSWICK.

ITS HARD TO BELIEVE THE VOLUME OF 00Z/3 NAM QPF.

SNOW GROWTH LOOKS VERY GOOD (20MB AT -14C) ON THE NAM NOW IN MOST

OF OUR AREA...E PA AND NW NJ CENTERED JUST NW OF I95 AT 12Z MOVES

JUST SE OF I95 AT 15Z AND OUT TO SEA AT 18Z. THIS HAS ME THINKING

A 2-3 HR OF 1/4 S+ IN MANY AREAS DURING THE MORNING. THE GFS NEEDS

TO CONFIRM BUT I AM PREPARED TO SEE THAT DEVELOP.

FOR THOSE QUESTIONING THE WARM THICKNESS AND FCSTG HEAVY SNOW...THAT

BOTHERS ME AS WELL BUT MY INTERPRETATION OF PCPN MICROPHYSICS IS

IF THE COLUMN IS AT OR BELOW ZERO AND SEEDED WITH CRYSTALS FROM

ABV... ANY ZL-/IP- ZR- CHANGES TO SNOW. THE THICKNESS IS HIGH

BECAUSE THE ONCOMING SHORT WAVE IS WEAK (70M HFC) AND HEIGHTS

(850-700 THICKNESS WARM) ARE HIGH LEAVING THE ENTIRE COLUMN AT

MARGINAL JUST SUBZERO IN THE I95 AREA NWD. CIRRUS UPSTREAM IN THE

OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS SEEN ON 02Z SATELLITE IMAGERY IS YOUR

SEEDER.

THE DRIVERS FOR THE LIFT APPEAR TO ME TO BE THE 180 KT 250MB JET

STREAK THRU MAINE AT 12Z MONDAY AND THE SW 850 WIND OF 50-55KT IN

W NC AT 12Z MONDAY PUSHING 9C 850 DEWPOINT OUR WAY...WITH

TREMENDOUS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE AT 12Z MONDAY.

WATCH FOR POSSIBLE POWER PROBLEMS IN THE 6 INCH WET SNOW ZONE DOWN

HERE SOMEWHERE IN S CENTRAL NJ WHERE POWER OUTAGES MAY DEVELOP?

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Wiz his Northern Zones translate to SCT on the NAM

I'm on mobile but besides QPF...how does lift look? Is there much stronger omega and VV's further north?

I've been pretty adament in my call...and unless I'm completely looking at everything wrong I just can't see us getting smashed beyond what I made my nap...if I end up being wrong I will not post in the winter again.

I just don't see what I'm misskng

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I think the GFS is going to come in even wetter.

 

This thing is super juicy. A weird storm where the lift and look is sort of meh but it is just loaded with moisture. 

 

It's a double edged sword for my area.  It's not that cold either so I think the "dry" aspect was overplayed by BOX.  So we may see some areas where temps are an issue but I don't understand the low totals earlier at all. 

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