Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 In regards to the UKMET...DT says, "Let's first remember the British screwed-up most of the world today." LOL. No offense to our British friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Wes says UKMET is about on level terms with GFS, DT is meh on it. The show is finishing up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 So there's three of us here who live in Madison! We're taking over the board!!! Lots of places to sled here- Rainbow Mountain, for starters Sent from my KFTT HD Where is rainbow mountain? And I was thinking about heading to Madison Academy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I really don't need to stay up for the Euro but geez... it's tempting. This will be an important run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Where is rainbow mountain? And I was thinking about heading to Madison Academy. http://www.madisongreenways.org/Rainbow Madison Academy would also be good. Dublin Park has some decent slopes, but will likely be closed if it snows. Sent from my KFTT using Tapatalk HD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 http://www.madisongreenways.org/RainbowMadison Academy would also be good. Dublin Park has some decent slopes, but will likely be closed if it snows. Sent from my KFTT HD Cool. Thanks. Didn't even know that was up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 I really don't need to stay up for the Euro but geez... it's tempting. This will be an important run. I'm still up..lol..My boy is on a travel baseball team, its been so cold we havent even been on the field yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Another view of the 12z Euro clown: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GGEM snow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For the record: posting fake NWS products leading up to and during a storm is not only violating a board rule (either in spirit or letter), it's an incredibly low move. Nothing funny about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 12z GGEM snow: You can picture where that leaves the Valley if we are given the NW trend we desire. I'll take this setup any day. As it stands, it's still a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 For the record: posting fake NWS products leading up to and during a storm is not only violating a board rule (either in spirit or letter), it's an incredibly low move. Nothing funny about it. 100% agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Regardless of the outcome, this storm is only strengthening the "What are the models smoking?" narrative. Depending on which model you ask, we are between 24 and 72 hours away from onset and have yet to see much agreement on a solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2014 Share Posted February 9, 2014 Saw the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 9, 2014 Author Share Posted February 9, 2014 New weather girl on WBIR just mentioned possibility of 3"-6" on Wednesday if the low tracks just right....she'll learn to not mention accumulation this far out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Reading some people in the SE Forum getting ready for power outages. I was thinking about visiting my uncle in Greenville, SC for the snow, but they're getting about .4 of sleet and then half an inch of freezing rain after their snow. I'm pretty low maintenance but I do need electricity. Stovepipe - looking at their Cobb Data, their temps are similar to here, especially in the beginning, so why does their snow not go down so much like ours, if all this works out this way? Or would they have had a foot instead of 7 inches? I see the 1.5 inches vs the mean you posted in the storm thread and understand that (surprise!), but I was just curious if that goes for the Carolina's too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 on the 0z NAM.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 WEENIE RUN!!! WEENIE RUN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Oh Reb, I want that dog! Not his food bill, though. Wonder what he'd think of my two little poodles? They don't look like poodles because I do their hair like a normal dog, but they don't look like him either, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok, remind me when the Canadian and Euro run(I know the Euro is early morning). GFS begins rolling in about 30 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Not sure about the GGEM Carvers, its slow in the model site through American, so I usually scroll the southeast forum and watch for someone to post about it. It comes out just after the GFS, Euro rolls at 1:00am est Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Ok, remind me when the Canadian and Euro run(I know the Euro is early morning). GFS begins rolling in about 30 mins. Euro at 12:30am our time, if I'm not mistaken. Not sure on the Canadian. edit: And Nut proves me wrong. I may have to stay up for the Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 What if this verified? Northern Georgia would be a total mess. I'm checking the Cobb Data and I've never heard of inches of ice like that. I haven't looked at any in SC yet. 2-3 inches would just destroy stuff. It comes over a 10 hour period or so. Can it melt as it's falling or does it just add up? I've seen one small ice storm and I couldn't walk in it, but the power didn't go off or anything. Is it just ice on ice and so on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Reading some people in the SE Forum getting ready for power outages. I was thinking about visiting my uncle in Greenville, SC for the snow, but they're getting about .4 of sleet and then half an inch of freezing rain after their snow. I'm pretty low maintenance but I do need electricity. Stovepipe - looking at their Cobb Data, their temps are similar to here, especially in the beginning, so why does their snow not go down so much like ours, if all this works out this way? Or would they have had a foot instead of 7 inches? I see the 1.5 inches vs the mean you posted in the storm thread and understand that (surprise!), but I was just curious if that goes for the Carolina's too. I guess you'd have to check the soundings to be sure, the upper air temps. Cobb is just a good guess and often times better than just using a straight ratio like 10:1. In TYS's case on that 18z run, it may have been factoring in a bit of sleet or rain mixing in as well as compaction of the snow. Like I said, to get a better idea you'd want to study the text data and the skew-t charts which I've not even bothered to dig into today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 The only way for massive amounts of ice to accrue is for the rain to be light to moderate at most over a long period and the temp to be 30 or less usually. If the rain is heavier and the temp is 31 or 32, it will wash away the ice and the freezing process itself causes a bit of latent heat release. That's why uber damaging ice storms are very rare, though they do occur. The Plateau had one in December 1998, that was a black out Christmas here. 2 days of rain with a temp in the 26-28 degree range. Nashville compares it to the 1994 West Tennessee ice storm for their Plateau and Ky border counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 MRX must be doing some kind of ritual, their AFD isn't out yet and it's nearly 5 am. Usually they are out from 2;45-3:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 Here's the 5:14am update to MRX's HWO for any who may be interested. Calling for 3-5 in the mountains and light accumulation in the Valley. Of course they note this could change with the proper track. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOKNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN514 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-111015-CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-514 AM EST MON FEB 10 2014 /414 AM CST MON FEB 10 2014/THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NORTHCAROLINA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA..DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OFNORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND CENTRAL EAST TENNESSEE. SOME LIGHT SNOWACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THEHIGHER ELEVATIONS..DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY......SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGHWEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODEL FORECASTS CONTINUE TO POINT TOWARD THE POSSIBILITY OFSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAYNIGHT. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THENORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSSTHE GULF COAST STATES AND EASTERN CAROLINAS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAYNIGHT. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARDINTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OFPRECIPITATION.THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...BUT A MIXTUREOF SNOW AND RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN VALLEY ANDSOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THE BESTCHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE TUESDAY NIGHTTHROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE TENNESSEEAND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER. IN THIS AREA A GENERAL 3 TO 5 INCHSNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET MAY SEEHIGHER AMOUNTS.PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECAST CONCERNING THIS POTENTIALWINTER STORM AS THE FORECAST CAN CERTAINLY CHANGE. AT THIS TIME ALIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY.HOWEVER....THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALLACCUMULATION ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY IF THE STORM SYSTEM MOVESALONG A MORE FAVORABLE TRACK WHICH WOULD RESULT IN GREATERCOVERAGE OF HEAVY SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can't tell if MRX is playing the ostrich (head in the ground), or if they think ALL of the models are wrong and we will have serious BL temp issues. Tracking this storm is taking years off of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I've not checked the local TV mets but here is my guess: Hinkin - What storm? Slight chance of rain Aldrich - Hugging the Euro but geographically confused. Thinks storm will move in from the east. Howell - A sensible forecast based on a model blend. Potential for 2-4 in the valley, maybe more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 10, 2014 Share Posted February 10, 2014 I can't tell if MRX is playing the ostrich (head in the ground), or if they think ALL of the models are wrong and we will have serious BL temp issues. Tracking this storm is taking years off of my life. I don't see it as ostrich...it is just not clear yet, and I don't think they are doing a bad job...there is still plenty of time. And I can definitely see between the 00Z Euro and GFS why caution is in order.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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