jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 tys MON 06Z 10-FEB 2.4 0.3 1019 90 80 0.00 559 543 MON 12Z 10-FEB 1.9 -0.9 1020 99 98 0.12 557 540 MON 18Z 10-FEB 1.3 -2.4 1022 97 97 0.15 557 539 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 1.7 -4.2 1022 81 51 0.01 557 539 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.8 1.8 1022 62 69 0.00 562 544 WED 12Z 12-FEB 1.0 1.0 1019 98 100 0.20 560 545 WED 18Z 12-FEB 2.1 0.2 1016 97 99 0.26 557 544 THU 00Z 13-FEB 1.2 -0.6 1013 99 89 0.19 552 542 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.8 -2.0 1013 99 87 0.01 549 539 THU 12Z 13-FEB 0.6 0.4 1014 99 10 0.01 551 540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 mem SUN 18Z 09-FEB 8.7 5.8 1020 73 34 0.00 565 549 MON 00Z 10-FEB 7.7 3.5 1018 80 51 0.00 563 549 MON 06Z 10-FEB 3.8 3.1 1020 93 66 0.05 562 546 MON 12Z 10-FEB -0.6 0.8 1022 92 62 0.04 562 544 MON 18Z 10-FEB 0.5 -0.9 1025 63 62 0.00 562 542 TUE 00Z 11-FEB -1.8 -0.4 1025 61 72 0.06 561 542 TUE 06Z 11-FEB -3.1 -0.7 1026 55 61 0.00 561 540 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -6.5 -0.5 1027 60 60 0.00 562 541 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 0.3 0.4 1027 48 70 0.00 563 542 WED 00Z 12-FEB -0.1 1.7 1023 54 96 0.00 563 544 WED 06Z 12-FEB -0.7 0.2 1021 69 99 0.03 561 544 WED 12Z 12-FEB -2.3 -0.2 1018 88 96 0.09 556 541 WED 18Z 12-FEB -1.1 -0.1 1017 84 97 0.03 555 541 THU 00Z 13-FEB -0.9 0.0 1016 87 70 0.00 553 540 THU 06Z 13-FEB -0.4 2.8 1015 78 6 0.00 556 544 THU 12Z 13-FEB -2.2 4.3 1015 86 10 0.00 558 546 THU 18Z 13-FEB 6.1 6.5 1014 74 21 0.00 560 549 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 5.4 8.0 1010 83 29 0.00 561 553 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 4.1 6.7 1010 89 27 0.00 562 554 FRI 12Z 14-FEB 2.4 7.2 1010 97 7 0.00 563 555 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 cha MON 12Z 10-FEB 3.8 2.1 1019 96 78 0.03 560 544 MON 18Z 10-FEB 2.9 -0.3 1022 94 75 0.07 560 543 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 3.1 -0.8 1022 81 49 0.00 560 542 TUE 06Z 11-FEB 1.0 0.3 1023 71 66 0.01 560 541 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -1.7 0.2 1024 67 59 0.00 561 541 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 5.2 -0.4 1025 55 54 0.00 563 543 WED 00Z 12-FEB 4.9 0.4 1023 74 71 0.00 564 545 WED 06Z 12-FEB 2.8 2.0 1021 93 98 0.05 563 546 WED 12Z 12-FEB 2.6 1.4 1018 99 97 0.28 561 546 WED 18Z 12-FEB 3.2 1.3 1015 98 99 0.21 557 545 THU 00Z 13-FEB 2.7 0.6 1012 99 93 0.06 554 544 THU 06Z 13-FEB 2.5 -1.1 1013 99 96 0.02 551 540 THU 12Z 13-FEB 1.8 1.6 1014 99 9 0.00 554 543 THU 18Z 13-FEB 6.9 3.8 1014 75 3 0.00 558 547 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 4.9 5.8 1012 87 9 0.00 559 550 FRI 06Z 14-FEB 2.0 6.1 1012 98 27 0.00 560 550 FRI 12Z 14-FEB 1.6 3.4 1014 98 33 0.00 561 550 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 tys MON 06Z 10-FEB 2.4 0.3 1019 90 80 0.00 559 543 MON 12Z 10-FEB 1.9 -0.9 1020 99 98 0.12 557 540 MON 18Z 10-FEB 1.3 -2.4 1022 97 97 0.15 557 539 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 1.7 -4.2 1022 81 51 0.01 557 539 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.8 1.8 1022 62 69 0.00 562 544 WED 12Z 12-FEB 1.0 1.0 1019 98 100 0.20 560 545 WED 18Z 12-FEB 2.1 0.2 1016 97 99 0.26 557 544 THU 00Z 13-FEB 1.2 -0.6 1013 99 89 0.19 552 542 THU 06Z 13-FEB 0.8 -2.0 1013 99 87 0.01 549 539 THU 12Z 13-FEB 0.6 0.4 1014 99 10 0.01 551 540 Thanks. Looks like a sloppy rain/snow mix with nothing on the ground to show for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 tri MON 06Z 10-FEB 1.0 -0.6 1019 91 54 0.00 557 542 MON 12Z 10-FEB 0.6 -3.0 1020 99 99 0.09 554 538 MON 18Z 10-FEB 1.7 -4.9 1022 91 97 0.15 554 536 TUE 00Z 11-FEB 0.1 -6.4 1023 82 51 0.02 554 536 TUE 06Z 11-FEB -2.4 -5.4 1025 64 43 0.00 554 534 TUE 12Z 11-FEB -5.3 -4.4 1027 65 39 0.00 555 534 TUE 18Z 11-FEB 4.6 -3.6 1026 30 37 0.00 557 537 WED 00Z 12-FEB -1.3 -1.5 1025 59 34 0.00 560 539 WED 06Z 12-FEB -1.1 0.0 1024 65 32 0.00 561 541 WED 12Z 12-FEB -1.2 0.3 1022 73 99 0.05 560 542 WED 18Z 12-FEB -0.3 0.2 1017 87 97 0.28 558 544 THU 00Z 13-FEB -1.1 -3.0 1014 92 89 0.27 552 540 THU 06Z 13-FEB -5.3 -2.6 1013 92 79 0.00 549 539 THU 12Z 13-FEB -5.6 -1.7 1014 93 74 0.00 549 537 THU 18Z 13-FEB 5.2 1.7 1013 65 7 0.00 554 543 FRI 00Z 14-FEB 0.9 3.8 1012 85 7 0.00 556 546 FRI 06Z 14-FEB -1.9 4.1 1011 87 22 0.00 556 546 FRI 12Z 14-FEB -1.0 1.2 1013 90 34 0.00 556 546 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 At TYS, if I am looking at this right, it is very close to being a pretty big event. We are just talking about 1-2 degrees in the upper atmosphere. I'm actually encouraged by seeing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Maybe some better over running for tonights event comparing the rap at 2pm to the current radar Edit:thats 2cst,our zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We don't have to stay in banter hehe. I just try to keep the silly clowns over here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Never bet against the warm nose Vol4Life, it usually wins. At least MANY we are in the game though! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 We don't have to stay in banter hehe. I just try to keep the silly clowns over here. lol..i didnt even know i was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Happy hour NAM, it's a lock lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Never bet against the warm nose Vol4Life, it usually wins. At least MANY we are in the game though! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Warm nose has ruined many a storm in the valley. You know, I have shared before I lived in Knoxville in 95-96. I remember these sliders and storms that just barely turned the corner. KTRI would just get pounded. I would drive home and there would be snow piled up in the parking lots 20' high. I was like, dang. Anyway, this pattern this week is beginning to have that feel. Could easily be wrong. And I am not calling for a blizzard in the TRI area. Just saying the cut-off may be a pain. I have been on the other side of it. No fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 The warm nose often rides up to around the Anderson/Campbell County line. Though JKL mentioned earlier that the warm nose from this event may even cover Eastern Kentucky. That said, I'll have a dish of the 6-8 inches the NAM is serving up. That's actually an amazingly consistent look with it's DGEX output from a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 After being up here for 12 years...it is par for the course...I often wonder how the long term average got to be so high for CHA and TYS...One of the first forecasts I made for some ZR back in 02 or 03 was scoffed at by a valley native....I learned the hard way how things shakedown in the eastern valley. That is why more often than not I get a marked as a warminista. But facts are facts... Never really considered you a warminista. Realistic, yes. The eastern valley is a royal pain in the neck to forecast. Sometimes I think of it like a kicker have to figure the wind direction in one of those old bowl shaped stadiums. Just so many variables. What is happening in the upper deck isn't necessarily what is happening at field level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I was hoping the warm nose wouldn't be as big of a problem on the overrunning event. The 12z Euro ensemble mean seems to show no issues with the 850 temps for that, I can't see the surface temp mean map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I will say this, I've been a weather fan and follower for a bit over 30 years. I can count on one hand the times I can recall seeing precip types do what MRX is forecasting. That is, switch from rain to snow to rain to snow just based on it being day or night. I've always found that if it's cold enough to snow, it will generally stay snow until the precip rate lessens or a major warm nose arrives. If a warm nose actually changes it to rain, it will stay rain, even after dark until the system passes and the winds shift directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I will say this, I've been a weather fan and follower for a bit over 30 years. I can count on one hand the times I can recall seeing precip types do what MRX is forecasting. That is, switch from rain to snow to rain to snow just based on it being day or night. I've always found that if it's cold enough to snow, it will generally stay snow until the precip rate lessens or a major warm nose arrives. If a warm nose actually changes it to rain, it will stay rain, even after dark until the system passes and the winds shift directions. Rarely do I criticize MRX, but I thought the same thing. There might be a good explanation for why they are saying this. Maybe they are just trying to get continuity w/ other offices. Might just be hedging there bets. But right...almost never see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Well, on the bright side, the 18z doesn't have a problem w/ the warm nose. Instead, it just gives everyone the middle finger. Since when did the 18z become Dr. No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 I wouldn't be surprised at all if the GFS shows another huge Miller A beyond 200 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Wasn't it Mr. Yes a couple weeks ago? Seems like it kept blasting us with a huge storm that would get less and less from 00 to 06 to almost nothing at 12 then back to a big hit at 18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2014 Share Posted February 7, 2014 Two things that seem to have really given the models fits this winter. 1. +PNA 2. Arctic cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I see ENERGY JEFF lurking! How big of a dusting are you seeing for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Stovepipe, according to what's on MRX's forecast now, we should/maybe get a little snow tonight and in the morning before it turns to rain. Less than half an inch tonight plus less than half an inch in the morning equals zero to less than one inch, I guess, lol. If so, take a picture for me because I'll be up late tonight (but not 4 a.m.) and may not be up by 11ish when the rain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Stovepipe, according to what's on MRX's forecast now, we should/maybe get a little snow tonight and in the morning before it turns to rain. Less than half an inch tonight plus less than half an inch in the morning equals zero to less than one inch, I guess, lol. If so, take a picture for me because I'll be up late tonight (but not 4 a.m.) and may not be up by 11ish when the rain starts. There's a joke in there somewhere but I'm not touching it with a 10 inch pole.... A surprise dusting to less than 1 inch would be awesome, if it happens I'll be outside with a flashlight, magnifying glass, DSLR camera, iphone, and any other equipment I can find to document the stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 You're a nut Stovepipe, lol. But please do take a picture however it is you take it. I'm looking forward to that bit of dandruff on your deck railing. I'd give up my dusting to add to the Middle TN guys' dusting and it might come close to covering their ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Our banter threads should win some kind of award. We have made the best of a not-so-snowy winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Stovepipe, got a clown map for the 6z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 Honestly, for the growth of the board...would love for this winter storm to drop some heavy snow on Knoxville, Chatt, Nashville, and Memphis. All four would be great. Might double or triple the number of people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 8, 2014 Share Posted February 8, 2014 I see ENERGY JEFF lurking! How big of a dusting are you seeing for next week? LOL...I might have to show this around the office! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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