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February Banter


Vol Man

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Hope everyone is ok after dealing with the squall line last night and I hope no one on our board, or their families suffered any damage. I don't know if it was much of an event in the Tri-Cities. I am guessing it wasn't, as I don't see any reports of damage on FB or the local media outlets. I was FAST asleep and only heard rain this morning (with no thunder) as I awoke.

The models didn't look too good overnight, in taking a step away from the wintry looks they had been providing, but I agree with Carvers in that I think the pattern has real potential as early as late next week. I am excited to track one more snow/ice event and then I will be ready for spring. I thought this last storm got it all out of me, but evidently I can be a little greedy, PLUS I really want more in the TN Valley to experience a snow event (especially the Nashville area)

Would be nice

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Hope everyone is ok after dealing with the squall line last night and I hope no one on our board, or their families suffered any damage.  I don't know if it was much of an event in the Tri-Cities.  I am guessing it wasn't, as I don't see any reports of damage on FB or the local media outlets.  I was FAST asleep and only heard rain this morning (with no thunder) as I awoke.

The models didn't look too good overnight, in taking a step away from the wintry looks they had been providing, but I agree with Carvers in that I think the pattern has real potential as early as late next week. I am excited to track one more snow/ice event and then I will be ready for spring.  I thought this last storm got it all out of me, but evidently I can be a little greedy, PLUS I really want more in the TN Valley to experience a snow event (especially the Nashville area)

 

What the 00Z taketh away the 12z giveth back WRT late next week...

 

The squall line woke us up...but everything seemed in order and the power never went out. Also, interestingly, SPC and MEG for that matter pounded the straightline wind drum which looked good from the model perspective but when it came right down to issuing the watches, out came the TOR boxes....Not a single verified tornado in the TN Valley either....

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If they have rotation on the radar, I would never fault them for the TOR Warning. I have seen presentations in the past on the very subtle rotations that were actual tornadoes that caused significant damage and loss of life. I think in a threatening situation the inconvenience of a tornado warning is far less a thing for an hour or two than if they neglected it and it turned out to be real. I just find it interesting that they would not do a SVR box after the days of discussion about this being a straightline event. I know to the general public it is all a wash anyway...they don't really know the differences...

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QLCS tornados are a tough thing. The spin ups are often there one frame and gone the next - so WFO start warning on any sign of organized tight rotation. Because the last thing they want to deal with is someone dying from an ef1 or ef2 that's on the ground for a minute because people weren't taking shelter.

 

Maybe its time we break down the warning products where a warning is "a tornado could form at any time" and start using exclusively "tornado emergency" language for those storms that have a confirmed tornado on the ground.

 

And while we're at it, can we talk about how in Nashville we are still doing county wide sirens when any part of a polygon touches the county? And in the case of last night, the sirens were still going off in Davidson County after all warning products had expired and 90% of the county had been in the clear for 45minutes or more?

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Finally made it to Oklahoma a bit ago for my sons meet tomorrow,this is him on the horse last weekend when he had a meet at Atlanta,he finished 3rd overall on the horse

 

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=727262807306905&set=vb.100000695779866&type=2&theater&notif_t=like

 

 

Hopefully i can get a pic of him with Bart Conner tomorrow

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Split flow is a tight rope. There is a fine line between phasing streams and confluent flow. Unfortunately confluence aloft looks to hamper all 2-3 systems this week. On the bright side, we had our fun a couple weeks ago. That was a great snow!

 

Speaking of bright, this has been the sunniest winter I've experienced in the Valley. It is my fourth winter here. I can deal with cold if it is sunny - just like my Plains homeland. The northwest flow was bad for storms but great for sunshine. Even the two prior mild winters were not as sunny. Last year was close, but it had some cloudy stretches. This year, with the exception of 10 days in December, clouds came and went quickly with systems. Here is a toast to sun. :sun:

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The Euro was insane from the Plateau west and across most all of Kentucky except for SE KY. Heavy rain/snow/freezing rain etc. Provided of course wunderground's map is remotely close to correct, NW TN looks to get probably 8+ inches on there, Northern half of Kentucky would get close to 2 feet.  Lot's of other precip and sub freezing surface air across the western Valley that would probably be icy mix.  Once again, provided Wunderground's maps are not screwed up.

 

Then the Euro goes bonkers with the cold over that snow pack with temps 5 to -5 across NW Tennessee and most of Kentucky. The -15c line looks to run along I-40 on Wunderground's euro maps. This is a 2m, not 850.

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The WxBell Euro clowns are similar to 12z for the Monday storm:

 

0z Operational:

KWvB55j.jpg

 

0z Control Run:

BP4Q0QP.jpg

 

The ensembles are a bit more bullish statewide.  The mean snow totals are up from yesterday.  Of course, those could be including some freezing rain on the backside of this thing as it certainly looks like the surface hits the freezing mark as the storm moves across the state.

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I just want everyone to know that I was mowing my yard last year at this time.  Right now, the grass isn't even thinking about coming out of hibernation.  #dormant

I believe I was about a week away from that here North of Nashville; incidentally, I have a Southern Magnolia that has a serious case of leaf burn; the only other time I saw this happen was in 1985 when Nashville was -17 we haven't been that cold but the sustained nature of the cold this year is having an impact on things; the leaves may all drop before the Spring - if we can get that before May! 

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I believe I was about a week away from that here North of Nashville; incidentally, I have a Southern Magnolia that has a serious case of leaf burn; the only other time I saw this happen was in 1985 when Nashville was -17 we haven't been that cold but the sustained nature of the cold this year is having an impact on things; the leaves may all drop before the Spring - if we can get that before May!

Have several plants/shrubs as well that normally stay green all winter that were just fried in January with the below zero temps here. Leaves were burned for sure....

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Have several plants/shrubs as well that normally stay green all winter that were just fried in January with the below zero temps here. Leaves were burned for sure....

This comment may go in a different section of the forum but I am afraid that I will forget it if I dont pen it in now.

 

What are the thoughts from yuou guys on the Winters of the last few years? I am a believer in global cooling, the wane in sunspots, etc., having an impact.

 

If I consider the last four Winters here in Middle TN, granted, none of them saw alot of snow, but all of them aside from 12/13 were extremely different than Winters in the 90's or even early 2000's; this year has been off the charts, if we had had a good snow in the early part of January it would have had a good chance of still being on the ground today.

 

My question is, do we think that this is the start of a period of more cold Winters or is this a momentary blip on the radar of climatology.

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Looking at the WPC's day 4-7 gridded forecast, its showing maybe some decent snow sometime Monday through Tuesday for my most of east ky, swva and appears the upper part of NE TN.....Don't know how accurate that is, but it looks interesting.

 

Yes, looks kind of interesting..Don't know if we get rain/snow/sleet/ice or mix..Hopefully someone with Euro access can give us a run down for this afternoon's run.

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