jaxjagman Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Congrats Jax, awesome! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Thanks,we are excited for him being he's the youngest on the team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 For our Nashville peeps - The Snowdome. Someone asked on the football board how much snow everyone got and a poster from Nashville posted this. I heard they dismantled the Memphis and Nashville snow domes today to allow in all of the spring rainfall and put them in storage until next year. This may turn out to be a huge mistake on their part! Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Don't know if it comes to fruition...but the pattern middle of next and onward is loaded for bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 David Aldrich says he thinks there's going to be at least one more shoveling level event for East Tennessee this winter. More and more model excitement in the 8-15 day range. Hope it keeps pulling closer and closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 From the SE forum the Euro weeklies may be hearkening to a mini March 1960. PV trapped over the GL, west based -NAO, -AO blocking in place as we head through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 From the SE forum the Euro weeklies may be hearkening to a mini March 1960. PV trapped over the GL, west based -NAO, -AO blocking in place as we head through March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think he was mistakenly discussing the Euro control and not the weeklies. Either way, what he was painting was very cold (and probably stormy) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I think he was mistakenly discussing the Euro control and not the weeklies. Either way, what he was painting was very cold (and probably stormy) The weekly EPS (at least on WeatherBell) has maps for both a control run and an ensemble mean going out 32 days. It does indeed look very cold towards the end on the control. Bouts of cold are shown on the mean as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 12z Euro now showing some snow for next Tues/Wed: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Who are the severe weather experts here? This will be our first spring here in North Alabama and I was just curious about how the future weather patterns are shaping up for severe weather this year. I'm use to having 4-5 days to prep for a hurricane, not 4-5 minutes to take shelter from a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 12z Euro now showing some snow for next Tues/Wed: this would mean our snow dome got blown up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Interesting severe wx setup for Thursday evening/night in the valley. Looks like a stout QLCS for now...would have to watch for an embedded supercell or two based off shear vectors and the fact that we will actually have some instability to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Interesting severe wx setup for Thursday evening/night in the valley. Looks like a stout QLCS for now...would have to watch for an embedded supercell or two based off shear vectors and the fact that we will actually have some instability to work with. Thanks! See you are a GA at UAH. I'm getting my ChemE degree from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I have good news my friend. Who are the severe weather experts here? This will be our first spring here in North Alabama and I was just curious about how the future weather patterns are shaping up for severe weather this year. I'm use to having 4-5 days to prep for a hurricane, not 4-5 minutes to take shelter from a tornado. You still get the 4-5 days for the big ones counting SPC outlooks, local forecasts, watches and warnings. Only difference is you definitely shelter in place for a warning. Prepare your room of choice when the watch is issued. Relocation should be accomplished before even a watch is issued. Most tornadoes, 98-99%, are less than EF-4. Interior room will hold up, even if you see blue sky on the EF-3. Law of numbers strongly favors sheltering in place even for an EF-4/5. Only a fraction of the tornado will cause EF-4/5 damage, the suction vorticies. The chance of one of those going over your house is quite small even within the larger tornado. The chance of dying in your car is magnitudes higher. If still not comfortable, invest in a storm shelter. For $2,000 you can buy priceless piece of mind. Never drive away during a tornado warning. Never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Geez I can't imagine ANOTHER snow. Sure feels like it should be spring already(almost is). I will take it though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Who are the severe weather experts here? This will be our first spring here in North Alabama and I was just curious about how the future weather patterns are shaping up for severe weather this year. I'm use to having 4-5 days to prep for a hurricane, not 4-5 minutes to take shelter from a tornado. You definitely moved into a bulls-eye zone. Tornado alley gets all the publicity because you get the highly visible tornadoes sweeping across miles of farm land and it makes for great pictures and videos. Now the Southeast is finally getting recognized for it's dangerous tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Further Valley area tornado risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Thanks for the info John, you've been on a roll lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 Interesting severe wx setup for Thursday evening/night in the valley. Looks like a stout QLCS for now...would have to watch for an embedded supercell or two based off shear vectors and the fact that we will actually have some instability to work with. Glad to see you posting here Tony! I have good news my friend. You still get the 4-5 days for the big ones counting SPC outlooks, local forecasts, watches and warnings. Only difference is you definitely shelter in place for a warning. Prepare your room of choice when the watch is issued. Relocation should be accomplished before even a watch is issued. Most tornadoes, 98-99%, are less than EF-4. Interior room will hold up, even if you see blue sky on the EF-3. Law of numbers strongly favors sheltering in place even for an EF-4/5. Only a fraction of the tornado will cause EF-4/5 damage, the suction vorticies. The chance of one of those going over your house is quite small even within the larger tornado. The chance of dying in your car is magnitudes higher. If still not comfortable, invest in a storm shelter. For $2,000 you can buy priceless piece of mind. Never drive away during a tornado warning. Never. Really some good advice there Jeff, it's good to put risk into perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Said it yesterday and will say it again today...when I look at the pattern for the next three weeks, beginning next week we are loaded for bear. That same isotherm that buried Kentucky during early and mid winter looks to be about 200 miles further south with an active jet based on the past three days of models. I don't see a storm system per say. But if one looks at the pattern, man, it's there to be had on multiple occasions. I am not one to hype and we all know these patterns can fail or be falsely modeled. But would be surprised, if by the end of March, the TN Valley does not see at least two more winter events in the lower elevations. I think the mountains are going to get pounded. Ski resorts in the southern Apps would appear to be sitting pretty. Here is a cool fact...KTRI has recorded a trace or more of snow in October, November, December, January, and February. I think KTRI has a real chance to record snow in March and early April. I can say this, as a child that grew up in the 70s, this type of streak would have been good even then. FWIW, I think the muted solar cycle we are in has coincided nicely w/ the increased snowfall over the eastern valley during the past 6-7 years. Monsters snows are fewer, but the frequency of 4-8" events has increased in Kingsport since 07' IMO in relation to the 90s. It just seems the upcoming pattern is conducive to big March snows. Until the cold in Canada decreases, we could easily wind-up in a winter pattern without much notice. Head and shoulders, this winter has been better than last winter. For our middle and west TN friends, in normal climo years are you all more prone to snow early? Just seems as a kid, when I lived in Knoxville, that middle and west would normally get the year's first snows and we would get the last. Definitely seems Memphis would score earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Jeff, did I just see where you work for TVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Jeff, did I just see where you work for TVA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Lol. Just wondering how hard it is to get an engineering internship with them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mempho Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 For our middle and west TN friends, in normal climo years are you all more prone to snow early? Just seems as a kid, when I lived in Knoxville, that middle and west would normally get the year's first snows and we would get the last. Definitely seems Memphis would score earlier. Memphis rarely get a snow in December but ice is fairly common then. Memphis only has 1 December snow on record in excess of a foot. Also, Memphis averages more snow in March than December. December has more events but they are generally pretty small. Most of Memphis 's biggest events come in March. The 2 biggest snows on history (18.5 and 17 inches) both occurred after March 16th. In addition, the 2 largest snow IMBY since living in Memphis - 6 inches and 10 inches occurred on Feb 28/Mar 1 and March 7/8. The climo towards big storms is definitively weighted towards late season in Memphis. Sent from my SCH-L710 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 19, 2014 Share Posted February 19, 2014 Lol. Just wondering how hard it is to get an engineering internship with them. It is tight right now because TVA is in the middle of several rounds of layoffs. However it goes in cycles. Now they are long people. In a few years when some people retire TVA will be short people. Anyway you are at a good school in a high tech environment. I'll be at Weather Fest. Hope to meet you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 20, 2014 Share Posted February 20, 2014 Well I learned something today. There is a town named Cooter in the boot heel of Missouri.http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cooter,_Missouri Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
valkhorn Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 From Morristown's Weather.gov site: In 1993, tornadoes hit east TN. 75 injured across 9 counties.1 died in Loudon County. Today we have a severe weather outbreak, and we all know what happened in March of 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 From Morristown's Weather.gov site: Today we have a severe weather outbreak, and we all know what happened in March of 1993. Why not?Every other weird thing has happened this winter..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 Hope everyone is ok after dealing with the squall line last night and I hope no one on our board, or their families suffered any damage. I don't know if it was much of an event in the Tri-Cities. I am guessing it wasn't, as I don't see any reports of damage on FB or the local media outlets. I was FAST asleep and only heard rain this morning (with no thunder) as I awoke. The models didn't look too good overnight, in taking a step away from the wintry looks they had been providing, but I agree with Carvers in that I think the pattern has real potential as early as late next week. I am excited to track one more snow/ice event and then I will be ready for spring. I thought this last storm got it all out of me, but evidently I can be a little greedy, PLUS I really want more in the TN Valley to experience a snow event (especially the Nashville area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 21, 2014 Share Posted February 21, 2014 I'll take what the 6z GFS is peddling: Over 3 inches of snow next Wednesday, high Thursday of 22 degrees, low of 10. Yes please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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