jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 GFS 0.5 Degree FORECAST FOR: ATL LAT= 33.65 LON= -84.42 ELE= 1034 18Z FEB11 * - APPROXIMATED 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKTUE 18Z 11-FEB 2.7 1.6 1025 91 98 566 546 WED 00Z 12-FEB 1.0 1.5 1025 93 97 0.03 566 546 WED 06Z 12-FEB 0.3 2.1 1024 94 99 0.18 565 545 WED 12Z 12-FEB -0.4 2.5 1022 96 98 0.53 564 546 WED 18Z 12-FEB -1.2 2.8 1018 95 96 0.45 561 547 THU 00Z 13-FEB -2.1 2.9 1013 95 98 0.24 555 545 THU 06Z 13-FEB -1.7 0.0 1012 96 99 0.22 548 539 THU 12Z 13-FEB -0.8 -1.4 1011 97 93 0.03 546 537 Atlanta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I still can't believe this is happening. Its very pretty out in Johnson City right now. Little cool, but the sun is shining brightly. The calm before the storm I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I still can't believe this is happening. Its very pretty out in Johnson City right now. Little cool, but the sun is shining brightly. The calm before the storm I suppose. Same in Kingsport, Silas. It was a great day to work outside to be sure. I kept thinking about what it'll be like tomorrow. Welcome to the board! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am baffled by AFD and how different mets see different things in the same models. Nashville mentions the NAM as one of it's reasons not to believe the models that show snow over a much bigger portion of their area. The WPC says they strongly recommend throwing out today's NAM runs when making a forecast because they are too flat, too fast and too dry. JKL mentions the consistency of the EURO for the 3rd day in a row, says that it shows Warning criteria 3-4 counties west from VA in their CWA but also says the GFS has been consistent, only shows warning criteria for their VA border counties so that's where they issue them. WPC mentions that the GFS has actually been folding towards the Euro run after run, but that it's still to flat. so they're going with the GFSEns because they line up more with the Euro/UKie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Same in Kingsport, Silas. It was a great day to work outside to be sure. I kept thinking about what it'll be like tomorrow. Welcome to the board! Thanks for the welcome! Yeah it started out being pretty cold this morning, but by the time I was leaving campus this afternoon it was nice out. Yeah I can't stop thinking about it either. I think I dreamed of snowfall models all night since I've been looking at them so much lately. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 And as soon as I post that I look at the GFS and wonder how JKL gets that it puts out warning criteria for them on either 12z or 18z. At 12z it had .10-.25 qpf over NE TN and only showed 2 inches of snow at the Tri. It rebounded a little at 18 and now has Tri around 3-4 inches. It's on an island at this point with pretty much every other model output being much higher over NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton7204 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I feel so left out! lol Dickenson and Buchannan co. are under a winter weather advisory, while the rest of swva is under a winter storm warning. Even the border counties of E. KY are under a winter storm watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 tnweathernut, Johnson City had TWO FEET of snow in '98? Wow! I didn't know that. I loved living up there near Erwin. I like Knoxville, but I like the weather there better, though a power outage like that would drive me nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jax, is that a bunch of ice for Atlanta? I haven't read the SE Forum today and I'm almost scared to. I hope you get some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Jax, is that a bunch of ice for Atlanta? I haven't read the SE Forum today and I'm almost scared to. I hope you get some snow! Lots of ice,but who knows if the GFS is right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Read a little in the SE Forum and now it sounds like Atlanta is going from more snow to sleet with lots of ice. GaWx is posting mind-blowing totals for Atlanta and Athens. Like 6-8 inches of sleet with a couple of ice possibly as part of that. Scary. The big GFS map over there doesn't make me happy at all. It looks more like 2-3 inches here. With forecasts changing so fast in their areas, I don't know what that does to us. I need map readers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Since this storm seems to be coming through mainly during the daytime Wed, how much will that affect snowfall amounts and changeovers to rain... seems like all of the bigger Chattanooga snows I recall happened at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 My post above about GaWx is all sleet mostly, not freezing rain and was based off the Canadian. I didn't check closely enough from what I read earlier and didn't want to misrepresent what he said. He thinks sleet+snow could set records there (6-8"). Whatever happens here, it will be interesting to watch there. Is sleet almost as bad as freezing rain in large amounts? I was reading the Memphis AFD and their warning criteria for sleet is just one half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I've never seen this. I spend half my time here googling words and phrases you all use to keep from asking too many stupid questions. Right now, if I google anything with the word weather in it, a big East Tennessee Winter Storm Warning is at the top in a box before the rest of the results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Biggest storm of the year...crickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 tnweathernut, Johnson City had TWO FEET of snow in '98? Wow! I didn't know that. I loved living up there near Erwin. I like Knoxville, but I like the weather there better, though a power outage like that would drive me nuts. Yes Tabby, we actually had between 24 and 36 inches over a 25 mile radius from JC. In fact, the 90s............for as warm a decade as you will see had THREE big snows. The one I mentioned in 1998, the blizzard of 96 (which was very cold afterward - seems like it stuck around forever), and of course the Blizzard of 1993. We haven't had a 10 inch snow since 1998 in Johnson City. It's "time", hope we can hit the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Biggest storm of the year...crickets. I just got my kids to bed, time to eat Rolaids and watch the radar and rap! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I haven't been this excited about a storm in a long, long time. Rapidly evolving down to the wire. Can't wait to see Robert's next update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 tnweathernuts, was your '96 blizzard in late Jan, maybe the 1st of Feb? I loved that winter. The last good winter we had until maybe this year. We had snow three Thursday nights in a row and that one it stayed cold all week. I think I wrote before that I broke my arm in two places that next Monday and we went to UT's ER on Kingston Pike and it was still hard snow even though it had been salted. I never expected to see that much snow and ice almost four days later. It was still on the ground and in parking lots that Wed when I went back to the ortho Dr. Is that the one that was your blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I think it was Tabby, but to be honest I was in college then and don't remember very many specifics from that year........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 96 was fantastic. 3 8+ inch events in about 28 days, jackpot here was February 2nd with 15 inches. Parts of Knox and Union went over 20 inches with that one. I think Tri got slammed January 7th 1996. I'm still holding out hope on crossing 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Ha, I hate to say so, but I was through college by a decent bit by then. It was a great snow. That was the only time the place that I worked closed for salary workers ever. They'd close for hourly, but make us come in anyway. It was monthly closing time (accountant) and I had to pick up some work to meet our press release deadlines and my boyfriend and I drove there to pick it up and got stuck big time in the parking lot. My car was like a bulldozer without a plow. Luckily, some IT guys that just stayed through the snow to keep our southern stores' registers etc running, came out and helped push us out. I thought for sure I had a long walk home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 That's the one, John. Feb 2nd and I spent many hours that next Monday in the ER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I just check the Weather Channel for the 1st time to see what's up in Atlanta and their Weather on the Eights for me says one inch Edit: Their map for Knoxville still says 3-5, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machetemoonlight Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 starting to think bust for Chattanooga.. (yeah, I'm a pessimist). Can't recall a daytime snowstorm with marginal temps like we're going to have tomorrow doing any good around here, except for maybe above 1500 ft elevation. It might snow hard, but it will mix with rain and melt in a couple of hours. Next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Remember folks, keep any "bust" calls in banter. In storm mode those aren't allowed in the storm thread. Just hate to see any of our peeps get a timeout or anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 I want to believe! At the very least I can take solace in the fact that Lookout and Signal Mountains will have ample snow to go see if it doesn't pan out for the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Someone mind deciphering what Robert just put out for me? I have no clue what he is talking about. I see the line as the freezing point, but is he referring to just for tonight, or for the entirety of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 A few miles can make a difference. If I go to the zone forecast and click on where I am, a few miles south of Pellissippi Pkwy, it says 2-4 and then 1-3. Just three miles away it says 1-3 and 1-3. Stove, we might be on the right side of Knox Co for a change. Assuming any of this works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tabbycat Posted February 12, 2014 Share Posted February 12, 2014 Bama, on Facebook? I understand (down in the comments) that he's saying the rain/snow line forecast was too far north (that blue line he said). I can't tell on the "Actual" which is the comparable line, though. I see sort of blue, sort of purple, but more than one. It may be my monitor. But he said the line is more south than forecast, so that's good. Edit: That blue line looks purple to me. Maybe someone that understands can screenshot it and draw a line for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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