Mr Bob Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Appreciate many of you staying up and posting through the overnight runs...it is easier to come on here and catch up than go through the normal routine! As for DT...he focuses on his area and is a little more than sloppy on the southeastern edges of his map. I would not take it at face value for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Appreciate many of you staying up and posting through the overnight runs...it is easier to come on here and catch up than go through the normal routine! As for DT...he focuses on his area and is a little more than sloppy on the southeastern edges of his map. I would not take it at face value for our area. It was fun, but I'm paying for it this morning. I posted DT's map in banter for that very reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 We've gotten about a half inch to an inch here in Madison. The heaviest stuff hasn't got here yet. Hopefully this stuff doesn't melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just curious, typically how long do power outages and roads stay covered if this is a (hypothetically) huge event (6-12")? It seems that plowing roads would become difficult the higher the snow amount gets. Getting kind of nervous thinking about a worst case snow scenario for the tri cities (looking at you, Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I am still amazed at the differences between the American modeling and the European modeling. We can't even use the trump card of it being the NAM in the long range. I would hate to be a meteorologist right now, knowing the difference is between just a little snow and potentially crippling amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just curious, typically how long do power outages and roads stay covered if this is a (hypothetically) huge event (6-12")? It seems that plowing roads would become difficult the higher the snow amount gets. Getting kind of nervous thinking about a worst case snow scenario for the tri cities (looking at you, Euro). Back in 1998, Johnson City Had a 24+ inch snowfall that knocked out power to virtually the entire city. Roads were okay within a couple of days, the power was out for between one and two weeks for a lot of people. I don't think this is that type of event, but there would be some power outages if we had 6-8 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Tnweathernut...what did the latest NAM show for East TN? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I'm done with the stupid NAM. 12z was weak, but even if it blows up later there just isn't any consistency at all. Like John I'm ignoring the friggin thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Tnweathernut...what did the latest NAM show for East TN?Here you go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Back in 1998, Johnson City Had a 24+ inch snowfall that knocked out power to virtually the entire city. Roads were okay within a couple of days, the power was out for between one and two weeks for a lot of people. I don't think this is that type of event, but there would be some power outages if we had 6-8 inches of snow Thanks for the information! The biggest snow I have witnessed (as an adult) was the snow of 2009 here in Johnson City so that's all I really had to go by. It wasn't too bad for me (no power outages) luckily. I remember the Blizzard of 93' when I was a kid, but obviously I did not pay any attention to the damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BamaChemE Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What's going on with this second wave? Not at a computer to look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zippity Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 What's going on with this second wave? Not at a computer to look. In Madison/HSV, we may get another one-two inches, according to the WAAY 31 meteorologist. HSV NWS map shows 1/2 to one inch overnight, then 1-3 tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WCYB at noon is going with 1-3 for the Tri-Cities and they showed the FutureCast model. Does anyone know what short range model that is based off of? WJHL is going with 1-3 Wednesday evening with an additional 1-3 during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 11, 2014 Author Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dave Dierks was showing 2-6 last nite...wonder why the decrease when most of the modeling seems to have held steady or even increased. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 WCYB at noon is going with 1-3 for the Tri-Cities and they showed the FutureCast model. Does anyone know what short range model that is based off of? WJHL is going with 1-3 Wednesday evening with an additional 1-3 during the night. Tri-Cities mets historically hug the GFS/NAM or their silly in-house suites. Some, I imagine, don't even look at the international models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA-Vol Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Tri-Cities mets historically hug the GFS/NAM or their silly in-house suites. Some, I imagine, don't even look at the international models I agree. Little surprised at WCYB with this one. Maybe they know something we don't know, but they're bordering on negligence if we get what many of the models have consistently predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It is tough to be a met in this crowd! MRX and all the TV guys get hammered up and down! I can only imagine what would happen to Jeff and me if our stuff was public and we did not post.... I realize everyone wants to the Euro to be correct but it is a possibility the GFS/NAM suite could be somewhat correct too. We won't know until verification time... I think MRX has played this very well. I don't follow any of the locals but so far, no one is wrong yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Dave Dierks does a really good job most of the time. No one is perfect obviously. He is often more precise with his wording and interpretations of what might happen. I have seen him go against the grain many times (away from a heavier snow) and be right. He has a lot of experience and I am confident he looks at all the models. What is more amazing to me is that we are within 24 hours of start time and we STILL don't have model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Just got a text alerting me that the TRI area (at least Hawkins and Sullivan Counties) have now been placed under a Winter Storm Warning. Almost game time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Cracking up at the WBIR headline that said "Winter Storm Warning Issued for much of East Tennessee, except for Southeast Kentucky.' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Goodness, its really going to happen now isn't it? Just saw the winter storm warnings posted for East TN. We hardly ever get those, so they must be very confident that a major event is going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 The extra moisture seen on radar seems to fit the trend this year for storm systems having much more moisture to work with and precip shields extending back further west than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 It is tough to be a met in this crowd! MRX and all the TV guys get hammered up and down! I can only imagine what would happen to Jeff and me if our stuff was public and we did not post.... MRX is a dead horse at this point, and I am as guilty as anyone for holding the stick. I have the utmost respect for the difficulties forecasters face; it is regretful that I find it so easy to participate in armchair quarterbacking. East TN rags on MRX just as the majority of GA rags on FFC, etc. By no means is it right. Constructive criticism is one thing; bashing is another. I am guilty of both. As for TV mets, Nut hit the nail on the head wrt Dave Dierks. He has been solid for a long, long time. Mark Reynolds is fairly accurate, but he never seems interested in explaining his rationale. His station in particular has pimped VIPIR for so long it feels like that's all I see. That's really where my criticism lies. Amazing the nit-picking one does when sleep-deprived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Good to see you here Jed. Building activity here is very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I've been walking around in that "late night Euro" haze all day. Couldn't sleep much from the excitement haha. Finally got a nap in, wake up to a friggin Warning! Shiz is gettin real! We need to soak all of this up and enjoy it, knowing how weather has been the past 15 years or so, it could be another decade before we see this much excitement, at least in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 MRX is a dead horse at this point, and I am as guilty as anyone for holding the stick. I have the utmost respect for the difficulties forecasters face; it is regretful that I find it so easy to participate in armchair quarterbacking. East TN rags on MRX just as the majority of GA rags on FFC, etc. By no means is it right. Constructive criticism is one thing; bashing is another. I am guilty of both. As for TV mets, Nut hit the nail on the head wrt Dave Dierks. He has been solid for a long, long time. Mark Reynolds is fairly accurate, but he never seems interested in explaining his rationale. His station in particular has pimped VIPIR for so long it feels like that's all I see. That's really where my criticism lies. Amazing the nit-picking one does when sleep-deprived. MRX has had it tough as nails this year, they've been right most of the time but a few swings and misses both ways. I can't blame them, it's been pretty chaotic this year trying to forecast East Tennessee. Which is tough anyway with all the small scale climates in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Ridge Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Knox County schools are closed Wednesday, according to WBIR. Good for them. Less to worry about once the storm is under way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Matt Hinkin talking up the rain/snow mix because of course he is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Bob Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 I was keeping mine at home if not! This is a no brainer tho as much as I would like to take a shot at the superintendent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvskelton Posted February 11, 2014 Share Posted February 11, 2014 Being reported by Kingsport Times-News that Delta and US Airways have cancelled flights in/out of the TRI. Last departure was around 1pm today. Several US Airways flights will be arriving this afternoon but will not be leaving. Can't get more real than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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