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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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Ya I don't agree at all. 

 

Newest nam on GGEM/euro train now. 

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM EST
MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 3 PM
EST MONDAY.

* LOCATIONS...SOUTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

* HAZARD TYPES...RAIN-SNOW MIX CHANGING TO ALL SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MORNING
COMMUTE.

* WINDS...NORTH AROUND 5 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.

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CTP going with 2-4". Philly has 4-8" and LWX has this for Hagerstown. 4-9"

 

  •  chance of rain before 1am, then rain and snow likely between 1am and 4am, then snow after 4am. Low around 31. North wind 7 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
  • Snow, mainly before 1pm. High near 32. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
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Hello all. Living in Hanover Pa it is nice to see a forum that deals with the no mans land that south central PA seems to be on these boards. Been following this board through its many transitions since the 96 blizzard and basically gave up posting last year due to the immature/nasty nature of some on the Mid Atlantic Forum to those on the MD/PA border. So this is a welcome relief to find considering, at the least, the next week or 2 shows a lot of promise with a very active pattern.

 

As far as this storm coming up tonight and tomorrow it is very encouraging to see the the Euro spitting out some fairly hefty numbers for precip more so then seeing the 06Z NAM ramp up, which will probably be showing purples by the 12 or 18Z runs.

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Hello all. Living in Hanover Pa it is nice to see a forum that deals with the no mans land that south central PA seems to be on these boards. Been following this board through its many transitions since the 96 blizzard and basically gave up posting last year due to the immature/nasty nature of some on the Mid Atlantic Forum to those on the MD/PA border. So this is a welcome relief to find considering, at the least, the next week or 2 shows a lot of promise with a very active pattern.

 

As far as this storm coming up tonight and tomorrow it is very encouraging to see the the Euro spitting out some fairly hefty numbers for precip more so then seeing the 06Z NAM ramp up, which will probably be showing purples by the 12 or 18Z runs.

 

Welcome back. Got to love those purples. 

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f78.gif

 

I'm definitely more concerned now for Wednesday's event than I was previously. I think once you get into some higher elevations out west and north (of Harrisburg), you're looking at less ZR and more IP/SN...it's the valleys along the Susquehanna, that are at risk for significant icing should this trend continue...

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Welcome back. Got to love those purples. 

Thanks. Still follow the Mid Atlantic Forum to get some insight from some of the very knowledgeable mets that visit which is nice.

I will be a :weenie: for a moment and say that from my 45 years of experience living in the MD/PA area I have had a gut feeling for the last 2-3 weeks (Even when the models had gone to crap) that this February as well as March have the potential to be very memorable for those N and W of the 95 corridor (Think even the 95 corridor will potentially cash in on occasion as well). I like the fact that the SS is ramping up and we have had cold on our side of the globe to work with virtually most of the winter. Considering that most of the winter has featured a trough in the Eastern US is a plus as well. Seen hints of a -Nao on the models lately and would not be surprised that we actually see one in a week or 2 that has some staying power and is not just transitional (Think that will be dependent on how the Strato warming plays out on whether we get that blocking or not). Would be nice to have the -Nao versus depending on the position of the PV for any blocking. All in all I am looking forward to following the next 6+ weeks.

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The 00z Euro has a potent 200 kt jet streak at 250 mb over southern Quebec for 05z Wednesday. This feature actually strengthens considerably from Tuesday into Wednesday as it moves poleward. The fact that the jet strengthens and has a magnitude 2-3 standard deviations above normal means that there will be an intense ageostropic circulation in the entrance region, with the lifting branch over parts of PA.

 

There should be some intense snowfall rates for areas of PA that stay cold enough. The 06z GFS is still a bit farther north with some mixing with sleet suggested for UNV on the BUFKIT sounding. One thing to watch out for, especially for Central PA is the possibility of a local min in the frontogenesis fields at 850 and 700 mb as the low begins to redevelop offshore. There may be some enhanced banding potential in the comma head of the secondary low, however the models at this time are suggesting that this feature will be more into the southern tier of NY.

 

In any case, the overall setup is pretty interesting for many in central PA. We'll have to see how the models converge towards the final track but it looks as if several inches is probable for these areas.

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North of hburg it's a good idea to focus on Wed as the northern cutoff on the Monday event will continue to sharpen as it gets closer.

 

I'm not sure UNV and places north were really ever favored in this setup for more than an inch at most. It actually has pretty good upper-level support though with the right entrance region of a 160 kt jet streak in Southern PA and MD.

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