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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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This might have a shot at being Harrisburg's biggest event of the season, surpassing the 4.7" mark. Holding out hope ...

Me too!  I only need 4.3" to exceed my biggest event which was back on 1/2-3.

 

If I remember from earlier posts I think by Mag, he said the Euro gave MDT between 0.7" and 0.8" of liquid.  As I zoom into the GGEM snow map to 400% (lol) I can pretty much make out that I am on the edge of 20mm...0.78" which squarely matches the Euro.  Gotta be feeling better and better about this actually.  Let's ride the Euro through storms 2 and 3 and build up our glacier.

 

JB just said that the upcoming stormy pattern can be likened to Feb 1994.  The favorite analog keeps going.

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I might be getting ahead myself...but dare I say it...is an all snow event possible Wednesday??

 

Some of those earlier runs this week were reminding me of a better CAD version of the Nov 26/27th event with the significant freezing rain/ice storm, but the last few runs look more like Dec 14th v2.0. GFS is getting there wrt to the colder Canadian/Euro, still looks mix-y at hour 84 with 850 0 line running through northern Penn and IPT. Probably could argue a sizeable front end dump for the rest of C-PA regardless. Given good CAD, predominant mix type probably going to be sleet over freezing rain.. although I'm sure there will be a least a thin corridor of decent ice. 

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Some of those earlier runs this week were reminding me of a better CAD version of the Nov 26/27th event with the significant freezing rain/ice storm, but the last few runs look more like Dec 14th v2.0. GFS is getting there wrt to the colder Canadian/Euro, still looks mix-y at hour 84 with 850 0 line running through northern Penn and IPT. Probably could argue a sizeable front end dump for the rest of C-PA regardless. Given good CAD, predominant mix type probably going to be sleet over freezing rain.. although I'm sure there will be a least a thin corridor of decent ice. 

So far it looks like even more QPF than 14 December - was there a GoM connection with that storm like this one appears to have?

 

Also, how long off are we from the key pieces of the upper-air pattern being onshore?

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Really?? GFS gives you like 10" Wednesday.

I think you must have the wrong idea about where I live. First I never look ahead when models can't get tomorrow right. Who knows what wed will be by then. Second gfs gives me about 3" before 850s go above 0c. Then ice and I hate ice. Next weekend looks amazing but that's fiction range. I'm focused on Monday and it was a buzzkill. I need one more morth trend and it went south.
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