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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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I'm with MAG when it comes down to the ultimate track. I would imagine the actual track would come farther north than currently modeled because a cold front with a developing wave on it almost always is slower than progged. Southern counties should do fine with this one.

Agreed. It has been the MO all winter it seems. I say bring it

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I'm jealous of all these pictures. I don't have them anymore because they were on an old camera I had. One was from my backyard after 2/10/10 where my yardstick was completely submerged in 40+" of snow. The best one was all the cars on my block the morning of 2/5-6/10 were completely buried including my neighbors Ford F350 Superduty!!!  I was totally stunned

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I am having a hard time buying any serious snow accumulations this week in the LSV. With a string of warm days and the every increasing February sun angle, we need snow to start well before sunrise and it to remain heavy through the daylight hours. The storms this week don't seem to have too much punch or energy with them.

lol, sun angle talk on February 1st.
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Awesome 2010 pics, everyone!

 

These two are form this year. Dec 8-9 storm. It was slamming.

 

The death band from that storm was as amazing as anything I've ever seen, including any HECS. I was just stunned when I measured 3.5", while just 45 minutes earlier, it was a coating that wasn't even covering the grass. Ended up with nearly 6".

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The NAM is such a terrible model. The track is great for MD/PA line north up to HBG, but the main bulk of the precip is confined right around the low which has been an issue with this model for awhile now at certain times. Granted, it still produced a good snowfall in the same spots as before. My view is to take the NAM qpf bulk and shield and extend it North by 25-50 miles. That has worked out well for me so far this winter, so I'll do the same. Still no changes from me. I like I81 east to Philly. Frederick, MD on a line NE to MD/PA line up through York and Lancaster counties. 4-8" for the region outlined. North of the boundary, totals will drop off quickly but a general 1-4" might be seen up to just south of UNV. South of the jackpot, I can see 2-4" down to Baltimore, but anything south of there will be tough to accumulate. I can see BWI being the last bastion of hope for 1", then south might get the screw zone. 

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The NAM is such a terrible model. The track is great for MD/PA line north up to HBG, but the main bulk of the precip is confined right around the low which has been an issue with this model for awhile now at certain times. Granted, it still produced a good snowfall in the same spots as before. My view is to take the NAM qpf bulk and shield and extend it North by 25-50 miles. That has worked out well for me so far this winter, so I'll do the same. Still no changes from me. I like I81 east to Philly. Frederick, MD on a line NE to MD/PA line up through York and Lancaster counties. 4-8" for the region outlined. North of the boundary, totals will drop off quickly but a general 1-4" might be seen up to just south of UNV. South of the jackpot, I can see 2-4" down to Baltimore, but anything south of there will be tough to accumulate. I can see BWI being the last bastion of hope for 1", then south might get the screw zone. 

 

I think the NAM is garbage in winter. HPC taking a euro/gfs mix. 

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