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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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SREF snow amounts way up for KUNV on Wed.

09z mean: 3.7"

15z mean: 7.8"

 

SREFs are FINALLY starting to catch on to the colder idea.

 

EDIT: Huge difference on the ptype plots...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140203&RT=15&PRM=Ptype-POP&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=39.96423077501272&mLON=-80.42188323364257&mTYP=roadmap

 

Also, more precip.

 

18z NAM colder, too, though a little drier. Still, most everyone near or above 0.75". Still brings the 850mb 0C line north of KUNV, but a lot closer, now. Only one or two more of those kinds of trends and it'll be in line with the Euro/GFS.

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It does look that way. The sounding for 12z Wednesday has the entire layer from 900 to 700 mb above freezing and below freezing from the surface to 900 mb. I suspect it may even be a bit colder that forecast in the near surface layer due to the fresh snow cover and ageostrophic northerly flow.

Yup, this is exactly what I've been feeling. The high liquid ratio content of the snow combined with the cold air being funneled down on Tuesday basically acts as a refrigerator component and cools the surface even further. The level that will be critical is the 700-900 mb you mentioned. The profile depicts a relatively bullish ZR signal. Will be playing a game of atmospheric chicken if you will on whether the warm nose can successfully erode out the surface

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