Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 By the way, not that it's extremely relevant, but it's "surprise snowing" with a little snow shower in Portland, OR right now. And the weekend storm out here could be occurring near the same time or just after a possible overrunning snow event in Portland as well. And if I remember correctly, one of our bigger snow events this season (in December?) happened when the Portland area was seeing a little snow as well. Maybe there's an unseen connection between Portland and central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 They trimmed the ice a lot more then I thought down here, wonder why? More sleet? Most likely, Euro 925 temps easily stay below freezing and 850 temps don't surge very high with the storm transferring more underneath us. Other models like the Canadian today have had more sleet in the south central. This has been why I haven't been big on the widespread freezing rain other than for the southern tier. The only thing that really has been suggesting big freezing rain has been the NAM/SREFs and I think they're still too warm aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 snow stopped here... temp now up to 35... snow just dropping out of the trees... my final measurement is just under 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Agreed, not sure where the widespread .25+ was coming from. My primary worry remains potentially underforecast WAA resulting in sleet. EDIT: CTP seems to be banking on that with a forecast of 4-6" Yeah. And I still think CAD is going to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Most likely, Euro 925 temps easily stay below freezing and 850 temps don't surge very high with the storm transferring more underneath us. Other models like the Canadian today have had more sleet in the south central. This has been why I haven't been big on the widespread freezing rain other than for the southern tier. The only thing that really has been suggesting big freezing rain has been the NAM/SREFs and I think they're still too warm aloft.From your keystrokes to god' sears. I hope you're right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm rooting for the I-80 crew this time around. You *more* than deserve this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hmmm...no crippling ice storm down here after all. (Not meant as an "I told you so"!) I just thought the models were trending away from freezing towards frozen precip predominantly (not all snow down here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hmmm...no crippling ice storm down here after all. (Not meant as an "I told you so"!) I just thought the models were trending away from freezing towards frozen precip predominantly (not all snow down here). Storm hasn't happened yet. lol. Things can change more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Does anybody have a text output on the Euro for KLNS. I get the feeling the LSV, if there is any freezing rain, will be down in this neck of the woods towards the MD line around Shrewsbury. Would be greatly appreciated. Soundings on GFS look like pingers and ZR for Millersville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Also, bring on the weekend storm. You want bullish Zack, here you go. I'm woofing big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Also, bring on the weekend storm. You want bullish Zack, here you go. I'm woofing big time. I like the looks of that one. Even if it goes a bit more west, the strong confluence and high to the north will still keep it snowy to ice even if it went into Ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hmmm...no crippling ice storm down here after all. (Not meant as an "I told you so"!) I just thought the models were trending away from freezing towards frozen precip predominantly (not all snow down here). Let's hope that trend continues...good for all of us...more snow up here and less damaging ice in the south. Will have to watch the 850 low track on the 00z runs tonight...should give us a better idea as to where the sleet/snow line ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't want another Valentines Day 07 sleet storm... Was terrible. Sleeted for like 8hrs and got 5" of sleet. Had sleet piles off my roof like over a foot deep. All I heard all night was sleet raping my window. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This last little bit of this storm... Awesome Dendrites Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This last little bit of this storm... Awesome Dendrites I'm telling you. What a great way to end it. Over 8" on campus. Will go for finally tally right as snow stops to make sure I beat the compaction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Does anybody have a text output on the Euro for KLNS. I get the feeling the LSV, if there is any freezing rain, will be down in this neck of the woods towards the MD line around Shrewsbury. Would be greatly appreciated. Soundings on GFS look like pingers and ZR for Millersville KLNS:WED 00Z 05-FEB -2.8 -2.2 1028 75 31 0.00 566 544 WED 06Z 05-FEB -3.1 -4.0 1023 90 100 0.03 563 545 WED 12Z 05-FEB -1.7 1.3 1014 94 98 0.57 559 548 WED 18Z 05-FEB 1.4 2.6 1006 88 80 0.20 550 544 THU 00Z 06-FEB 0.0 -7.3 1013 87 41 0.01 546 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warning canceled... 30mins later. Watch issued. got to love it. PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-040615-/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.A.0002.140205T0000Z-140206T0400Z/CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER312 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGHWEDNESDAY EVENING.* HAZARD TYPES...SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MIX.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH.* TIMING...WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND ENDWEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW OR ICEWILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING.* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS ANDREDUCED VISIBILITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 KLNS:WED 00Z 05-FEB -2.8 -2.2 1028 75 31 0.00 566 544 WED 06Z 05-FEB -3.1 -4.0 1023 90 100 0.03 563 545 WED 12Z 05-FEB -1.7 1.3 1014 94 98 0.57 559 548 WED 18Z 05-FEB 1.4 2.6 1006 88 80 0.20 550 544 THU 00Z 06-FEB 0.0 -7.3 1013 87 41 0.01 546 536 Thanks Heavy. Wow, that looks just awful for ice this way. Probably sleet to ZR. Granted it does show plain rain to end it, but these types of situations are always tricky with CAD holding on longer. I'd probably say RT 30 will be the ZR line. South of line may be more prone to ZR and Northwest could be more pinger. I really wish I could see a bufkit of Euro, but this will do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Voyager this watch is for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 now that this event has ended and we are over 1200 posts, should we start a new thread in next hour or so since the focus will turn to tomorrow night now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I don't want another Valentines Day 07 sleet storm... Was terrible. Sleeted for like 8hrs and got 5" of sleet. Had sleet piles off my roof like over a foot deep. All I heard all night was sleet raping my window. lol V-Day was probably the craziest winter storm of my life. 1' snow, 3-4" sleet, temps plummeting to near-zero afterward...set the stage for a snow pack that would last until late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 now that this event has ended and we are over 1200 posts, should we start a new thread in next hour or so since the focus will turn to tomorrow night now? i agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 SREF snow amounts way up for KUNV on Wed. 09z mean: 3.7" 15z mean: 7.8" SREFs are FINALLY starting to catch on to the colder idea. EDIT: Huge difference on the ptype plots... http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140203&RT=15&PRM=Ptype-POP&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=39.96423077501272&mLON=-80.42188323364257&mTYP=roadmap Also, more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Thanks Heavy. Wow, that looks just awful for ice this way. Probably sleet to ZR. Granted it does show plain rain to end it, but these types of situations are always tricky with CAD holding on longer. I'd probably say RT 30 will be the ZR line. South of line may be more prone to ZR and Northwest could be more pinger. I really wish I could see a bufkit of Euro, but this will do It does look that way. The sounding for 12z Wednesday has the entire layer from 900 to 700 mb above freezing and below freezing from the surface to 900 mb. I suspect it may even be a bit colder that forecast in the near surface layer due to the fresh snow cover and ageostrophic northerly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 V-Day was probably the craziest winter storm of my life. 1' snow, 3-4" sleet, temps plummeting to near-zero afterward...set the stage for a snow pack that would last until late March. That might have been one of the worst winter storms as far as impacts in PA history. What highway was it where the people were trapped on? I think it was up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Up to 36 here, melting quickly. Back down to 3" already with melting and compacting. Come on get dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This last little bit of this storm... Awesome Dendrites Yeah how about it. That last burst really started adding up quickly. Huge fluffy flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That might have been one of the worst winter storms as far as impacts in PA history. What highway was it where the people were trapped on? I think it was up your way. 81 was a parking lot that night. Lots of motorists stranded especially from AVP on north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That might have been one of the worst winter storms as far as impacts in PA history. What highway was it where the people were trapped on? I think it was up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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