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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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By the way, not that it's extremely relevant, but it's "surprise snowing" with a little snow shower in Portland, OR right now. And the weekend storm out here could be occurring near the same time or just after a possible overrunning snow event in Portland as well. And if I remember correctly, one of our bigger snow events this season (in December?) happened when the Portland area was seeing a little snow as well. Maybe there's an unseen connection between Portland and central PA. :P

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They trimmed the ice a lot more then I thought down here, wonder why? More sleet?

 

Most likely, Euro 925 temps easily stay below freezing and 850 temps don't surge very high with the storm transferring more underneath us. Other models like the Canadian today have had more sleet in the south central. This has been why I haven't been big on the widespread freezing rain other than for the southern tier. The only thing that really has been suggesting big freezing rain has been the NAM/SREFs and I think they're still too warm aloft. 

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Most likely, Euro 925 temps easily stay below freezing and 850 temps don't surge very high with the storm transferring more underneath us. Other models like the Canadian today have had more sleet in the south central. This has been why I haven't been big on the widespread freezing rain other than for the southern tier. The only thing that really has been suggesting big freezing rain has been the NAM/SREFs and I think they're still too warm aloft.

From your keystrokes to god' sears. I hope you're right.
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Hmmm...no crippling ice storm down here after all.  (Not meant as an "I told you so"!)  I just thought the models were trending away from freezing towards frozen precip predominantly (not all snow down here).

Let's hope that trend continues...good for all of us...more snow up here and less damaging ice in the south.  Will have to watch the 850 low track on the 00z runs tonight...should give us a better idea as to where the sleet/snow line ends up.

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Does anybody have a text output on the Euro for KLNS. I get the feeling the LSV, if there is any freezing rain, will be down in this neck of the woods towards the MD line around Shrewsbury. Would be greatly appreciated. Soundings on GFS look like pingers and ZR for Millersville

KLNS:WED 00Z 05-FEB  -2.8    -2.2    1028      75      31    0.00     566     544    WED 06Z 05-FEB  -3.1    -4.0    1023      90     100    0.03     563     545    WED 12Z 05-FEB  -1.7     1.3    1014      94      98    0.57     559     548    WED 18Z 05-FEB   1.4     2.6    1006      88      80    0.20     550     544    THU 00Z 06-FEB   0.0    -7.3    1013      87      41    0.01     546     536  
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Warning canceled... 30mins later. Watch issued. got to love it.

 

PAZ024>028-033>036-056-057-059-063>066-040615-
/O.EXB.KCTP.WS.A.0002.140205T0000Z-140206T0400Z/
CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-
FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JOHNSTOWN...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...
MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...
MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...
LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER
312 PM EST MON FEB 3 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING.

* HAZARD TYPES...SIGNIFICANT WINTRY MIX.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 4 INCHES.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TENTH TO ONE HALF INCH.

* TIMING...WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND END
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE PERIOD OF MOST INTENSE SNOW OR ICE
WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY.

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KLNS:WED 00Z 05-FEB  -2.8    -2.2    1028      75      31    0.00     566     544    WED 06Z 05-FEB  -3.1    -4.0    1023      90     100    0.03     563     545    WED 12Z 05-FEB  -1.7     1.3    1014      94      98    0.57     559     548    WED 18Z 05-FEB   1.4     2.6    1006      88      80    0.20     550     544    THU 00Z 06-FEB   0.0    -7.3    1013      87      41    0.01     546     536  

Thanks Heavy. Wow, that looks just awful for ice this way. Probably sleet to ZR. Granted it does show plain rain to end it, but these types of situations are always tricky with CAD holding on longer. I'd probably say RT 30 will be the ZR line. South of line may be more prone to ZR and Northwest could be more pinger. I really wish I could see a bufkit of Euro, but this will do

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I don't want another Valentines Day 07 sleet storm... Was terrible. Sleeted for like 8hrs and got 5" of sleet. Had sleet piles off my roof like over a foot deep. All I heard all night was sleet raping my window. lol

V-Day was probably the craziest winter storm of my life. 1' snow, 3-4" sleet, temps plummeting to near-zero afterward...set the stage for a snow pack that would last until late March.

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SREF snow amounts way up for KUNV on Wed.

09z mean: 3.7"

15z mean: 7.8"

 

SREFs are FINALLY starting to catch on to the colder idea.

 

EDIT: Huge difference on the ptype plots...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140203&RT=15&PRM=Ptype-POP&SID=PSB&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=39.96423077501272&mLON=-80.42188323364257&mTYP=roadmap

 

Also, more precip.

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Thanks Heavy. Wow, that looks just awful for ice this way. Probably sleet to ZR. Granted it does show plain rain to end it, but these types of situations are always tricky with CAD holding on longer. I'd probably say RT 30 will be the ZR line. South of line may be more prone to ZR and Northwest could be more pinger. I really wish I could see a bufkit of Euro, but this will do

 

It does look that way. The sounding for 12z Wednesday has the entire layer from 900 to 700 mb above freezing and below freezing from the surface to 900 mb. I suspect it may even be a bit colder that forecast in the near surface layer due to the fresh snow cover and ageostrophic northerly flow.

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V-Day was probably the craziest winter storm of my life. 1' snow, 3-4" sleet, temps plummeting to near-zero afterward...set the stage for a snow pack that would last until late March.

That might have been one of the worst winter storms as far as impacts in PA history. What highway was it where the people were trapped on? I think it was up your way. 

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