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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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I'm having a hard time seeing how we have a crippling ice storm down here IF the EURO's text data comes true.  For MDT it shows close to 6" of snow followed by a rapid transition to rain near the very end with less than 0.2" total liquid after the transition.  Seems to me there would have to be some major warm tongue between 850 and the surface to create the heavy ZR scenario.

 

I'm not trying to discount all the other model's and especially if Horst is worried, but the EURO along now with the UKIE try to keep 850 near or even slightly below zero during the meat of the storm in vicinity of MDT.

 

I'll have 925 mb (approx 3k feet) temp data here in a bit when I am able to see the full Euro. But if it is anything like the 0z run, 925 temps were quite cold..especially in the central third of the state. At 60 hrs with the best precip we had -4C temps dipping all the way the the MD border. The 0C line ran just above the MD border in the LSV. The cold 925 temps in the central third of the state were highly indicative of more of a sleet outcome. 

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thing with text data is that the .2 C for 850 temp at 12z doesnt let us know when that transition from below 0 to above 0 occurs... we could see most of the 6 hour precip as snow or it could transition in the middle of that period... plus it only shows 850 and surface temps so when there is a warm layer at 800 we dont see it on the text data

 

really coming down now in what I have a feeling is the final burst here... much drier snow so the best ratios we have seen all morning occurring now

Yea I noticed that the snow is drier the last couple hours. You can actually see the drier snow on top of the concrete snow on trees and rounded surfaces.

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I'm an over achiever today :D 1.5" of snow wasn't expecting to break an 1"  Some maintenance on my snow blowers today.

Is it Wednesday yet?

Happy to see everyone getting some decent totals....But has to be a PITA to clean up.

oh it is. I plowed earlier, but let an older guy plow this afternoon, i shoveled. Chits like shoveling concrete. Is it to early to start drinking? with the other snows, it was brutal cold out, but today  its warm enough to work up a serious case of swamp A$$

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These storms seem to trend somewhat north as we near them. Of course I should shut up or else Tue night's storm does that....

 

Yeah, don't jinx it, Jamie! :P

 

Seriously, though... I like where we stand so far with the weekend storm. But we've got a long way to go with it still.

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i can't wait to see some your numbers for those of you who do ratio's. Still light snow in Harrisburg and i'm putting this in my book as 6.25" as that was my last measurement. I know it can't be correct with the compaction, but thats all i have to go by. i understand downed trees and power lines are still an issue. Thank god there was no wind associated with this.

 

I honestly never thought i would have my highest snowfall to date today. I was expecting 3, 5 tops. Awesome surprise.

 

edit to add- http://www.pennlive.com/midstate/index.ssf/2014/02/power_outages_snow_storm.html#incart_river_default

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Now this is a little bit more in the line of what I was thinking ice wise, probably with probably more towards warning levels in the LSV as well.

 

attachicon.gifStormTotalIce.png

Agreed, not sure where the widespread .25+ was coming from. My primary worry remains potentially underforecast WAA resulting in sleet.

 

EDIT: CTP seems to be banking on that with a forecast of 4-6"

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