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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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Ya but I like 4" of wet snow over 6" of dry anyways. Looks nicer and lasts longer.

Yup!  Plus for down here with more ice and wetness coming mid week the pack could "drink more" and has a better shot at survival versus being washed away instantly.  Still have almost 100% ambient snow cover here but a few small patches opened up with the warmth.  Give me concrete I can keep a little longer and that is icing on the winter cake.

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LWX has watches up just to the south now. 

 

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS
ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY
EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY...AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 MONDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY...MAKING
TRAVEL DIFFICULT DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW WILL
REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES.

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I think just a Special Weather Statement should be put out for this system for some light snow and 1-3 inches. Advisory not needed, snow will have difficult time sticking to paved roads after 3 days in the low to mid 40s and marginal temps on Monday.

Road temps wont be that warm, and regardless of road temps rates will overcome ANY MARGINAL surface warmth. It will accumulate fast. Watches will be needed down here.
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I think just a Special Weather Statement should be put out for this system for some light snow and 1-3 inches. Advisory not needed, snow will have difficult time sticking to paved roads after 3 days in the low to mid 40s and marginal temps on Monday.

ground is still solid frozen... tried to work at an ice issue here from ground water coming up that has built up the past two weeks and didnt get far at all despite mid 40s and some sun... 2-3 days in the low to mid 40s isnt going to warm it enough after nearly 2 weeks below freezing to prevent snow from accumulating

 

once again... this monday event is a wave moving along the front... the only way it will "jump north" is if the front does not push south east as quickly late tomorrow... I really dont see it pushing southeast quicker than the models either as MAG explained above

 

I also wouldnt put a lot of weight into the 18z NAM for the Tuesday/Wednesday event at that range and with this Monday system first...

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ground is still solid frozen... tried to work at an ice issue here from ground water coming up that has built up the past two weeks and didnt get far at all despite mid 40s and some sun... 2-3 days in the low to mid 40s isnt going to warm it enough after nearly 2 weeks below freezing to prevent snow from accumulating

 

once again... this monday event is a wave moving along the front... the only way it will "jump north" is if the front does not push south east as quickly late tomorrow... I really dont see it pushing southeast quicker than the models either as MAG explained above

 

I also wouldnt put a lot of weight into the 18z NAM for the Tuesday/Wednesday event at that range and with this Monday system first...

 

I'd never put weight into the NAM. Maybe at like 6hrs out. I'd make a forecast based of the barometer like they did in the old days before i'd use the NAM. lol

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Hope Yorkpa doesn't work for penndot. He later edited it to add he was just joking.

 

I was gonna say, if he wanted to work the whole "it's too warm for it to accumulate on roads" reasoning he should've mentioned sun angle... It is Feb 1st after all lol. 

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CTP Disco:

 

THE HIGH CONFIDENCE OUTCOME IS A SWATH OF 1-3/2-4" OVER THE SRN

1/3 OF THE CWA WITH SOME LCL AMTS OF PERHAPS 4-6" OVER THE HIGHER

TERRAIN OF THE LAURELS AND NEAR THE MASON DIXON LINE/S OF RT 30.

THE SNOW SHOULD IMPACT THE MONDAY AM COMMUTE ALONG THE PA TURNPIKE

AND IN THE LSV METRO AREAS.

 

 

Also

 

CONSIDERED ISSUING WINTER STORM WATCH FOR POSSIBLE

6" IN 12HRS OVER THE FAR SRN TIER ADJ TO LWX/PHL BUT WITH SOME

UNCERTAINTY ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE PCPN SHIELD AND SREF/GEFS MEANS

STRONGLY SUPPORTING LESSER/HIGH-END ADVY AMTS..OPTED TO KEEP

MENTION IN HWO AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO ISSUE WSW IF NECESSARY.

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