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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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You used to work with Eric Horst, right? He is calling the ice potential tomorrow night "scary." That is his word...I'm sticking with him.

Correct.  I have yet to experience one ice storm that has proved to be more than a nuisance for roads or power outages though.  I don't consider things scary until you're on day 4 without power and it's not just lines down but snapped poles and destroyed transformers.  Working in the OEM field has made me numb to the 4 hour outage inconvenience or day of no school / work / closed government, etc.  

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I'll get an official measurement once the baby wakes from her nap, but my guess would be 5-6 inches here. Can't help but think how huge this would have been with cold temps from the start.

GFS ensembles with some good hits for the weekend, no? Really looking forward to hearing the mets discuss that possible event.

 

Very much so. In fact, P008 is pretty much a central PA weenie's dream come true. Looks like 2.5-3" of qpf here in State College, all of it snow (and probably good ratios to boot). If only... ;)

 

 

 

2nd one over on the bottom. Thanks. 

 

Haha, exactly! P008!

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Correct. I have yet to experience one ice storm that has proved to be more than a nuisance for roads or power outages though. I don't consider things scary until you're on day 4 without power

and it's not just lines down but snapped poles and destroyed transformers. Working in the OEM field has made me numb to the 4 hour outage inconvenience or day of no school / work / closed government, etc.

I basically agree with you...ice I think has often been overhyped, which is why for someone like Eric to make that comment is pretty telling...

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I don't see those ZR amounts verifying in Centre County.  Even without the colder trend that seems to be ongoing, these type of events tend to be more Snow vs Sleet up here.  Now for the Laurels and Lehigh Valley... that's another story.

 

Ya, I think it's probably just a little on the "broadbrushed" side right now. They'll probably narrow it down as we get closer.

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Seems like the 12z NAM has finally started to cool the temp column for Wednesday's storm towards where the GFS and Euro and associated ensembles have been at. New GFS ensembles keep the 0C line below UNV. Given the setup my opinion remains that the warning level freezing rain sticks to the southern tier counties along the turnpike with mixing of predominantly sleet and a bit of freezing rain between the turnpike and I-80. Canadian keeps things sleet for awhile all the way to Zacks neck of the woods. In short, I don't buy the warning level freezing rain driving all the way into the heart of central PA. With the low staying largely under PA now with it's transfer to the coast I just feel that such things are Central PA 101. 

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Joking aside, nice to see 8/12 ensemble members in agreement of something significant

 

Agreed. Much better model and ensemble agreement for that storm that we had for this or Wednesday's storms at the same range... like night and day, really. Still some major details to be worked out, though, so it's certainly quite possible we could end up seeing nothing or not much out of it, yet.

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