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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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0z European has the classic C-PA dip in 850 0C line for Wednesdays storm. UNV looked to have stayed all snow on it.. 0 line gets just barely above MDT. North Central and Wsptwx get slammed. 6 hour frame of 0.5-0.75" up there. Gotta love it, they'll be taking headlines down after this current storm moves out later today and probably quickly replacing them with watches for everyone.

 

Mag, so what type of profile does it present for us near Harrisburg?  If we are barely above zero at 850 how do the other layers look as far as snow vs sleet vs freezing rain?  Is the Euro painting a snowier picture for around here compared to the GFS?  Thanks for any info you can provide!

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Mag, so what type of profile does it present for us near Harrisburg?  If we are barely above zero at 850 how do the other layers look as far as snow vs sleet vs freezing rain?  Is the Euro painting a snowier picture for around here compared to the GFS?  Thanks for any info you can provide!

 

GFS and Euro are pretty close at 850, with the GFS and it's ensembles just a tad warmer. Both models would suggest most of us are going to see a pretty good front end dump of snow before mixing sets up wherever it decides to set up. I still like more of a sleet vs widespread freezing rain outcome above the turnpike with mixed precip given the track of the low staying generally under PA with a transfer to the coast. Think the highest outright freezing rain threat resides along the MD border counties. Again.. this is likely after a period of snow. Don't feel the NAM/SREFs are grasping this storm thermally quite yet. 

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GFS and Euro are pretty close at 850, with the GFS and it's ensembles just a tad warmer. Both models would suggest most of us are going to see a pretty good front end dump of snow before mixing sets up wherever it decides to set up. I still like more of a sleet vs widespread freezing rain outcome above the turnpike with mixed precip given the track of the low staying generally under PA with a transfer to the coast. Think the highest outright freezing rain threat resides along the MD border counties. Again.. this is likely after a period of snow. Don't feel the NAM/SREFs are grasping this storm thermally quite yet. 

 

Wednesday storm already got me worried for power. 

 

Down to 35.5. A few flakes mixing in, but mainly rain. .07" per hr rates. .14" total so far. 

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The side road near my house is covered but the main road out front is just wet, but looking at radar, shouldn't take too long before that is covered as well.

 

It's gettin there slowly. Been like pulling teeth to get the better precip solidly into northern halves of Blair/Cambria/Huntingdon thus far. I'd wager Tyrone just 7 miles up the road from me could probably count the amount of fallen flakes on one hand to this point. Just a dusting here.

 

Meanwhile Somerset/Bedford/Fulton/Southern Huntingdon are gettin slammed.

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Snow pack too, Tuesday's highs are going to underperform, the thermal mass of 3-10" of wet dense snow is just incredible.

I was always under the impression that the models take into account snow cover. Or are you referring to the fact that maybe they do not differentiate between a light fluffy snow with very little water content vs. a dense and heavy snow pack?

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