CarlislePaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 38 degrees here with light rain. Had a moderate shower pass through a bit ago depositing 0.04". I can deduct that now from the storm's total liquid equivalent, and deduct a half-inch of snow from the storm too. What a night this has been of tracking and reading all these posts. Off to bed shortly since I know I am going to wake up early to see the ripping snow outside. I like wet snow from the standpoint that it sticks to everything and creates a beautiful landscape. BTW---regarding the KCXY ASOS readings. Their temperature sensor began malfunctioning about 3 days ago. It keeps randomly spiking the temp up by 10 to 20 degrees for brief periods of time, then appears to return to functioning normally. Right now it is malfunctioning with its 50 degree reading. Just refer to MDT for the closest reference temp. They're not all that far apart. Someone from State College is going to have to come down to repair it. They must be aware now of what it's been doing. Also, yesterday a few folks here were noticing that KUNV's temp and dewpoints were reading improperly. Someone pointed out about a 10-degree increase in the readings. I also noticed dew points were like 20 degrees too low. At one point yesterday afternoon their dew point was reading -10F while everyone else was in the positive teens including AOO. Maybe someone from the board who has contacts and can reach one of the CTP guys can relay this info to them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 37 & light drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hoping to wake up to a big thump in the morning. My gf is giving me the stink eye because I got her all excited for snow and now it's raining and 38 at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 36/36 -DZ, N@3 My gf is giving me the stink eye because I got her all excited for snow and it's raining and 38 at my house. Ditto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWxJr Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 All is quiet here in Mansfield...hope you all enjoy the snow. I'm looking forward to Wednesday! Just a little info I live in Carlisle and am currently going to Mansfield University. My dad posts all the time and I'm hoping to chip in here this week with some conditions if we get lucky up here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Rain is falling here, the temperature has been at 39.6 for an hour now. The radar is looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It's only 1230 all. Snow is not supposed to start till like 2-3am. This is just extra precip. Will help cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Steady precip starting to establish along the southern tier. Per 511pa cams, def steady snow at Johnstown with snow already looking like its starting to slush the roads a bit. Snow seems evident on Bedford and maybe Breezewood cams along the turnpike. Correlation coefficient product on radar seems to indicate that just east of there, some mixing is still occuring which of course is supported by some of your obs. As steadier/heavier precip continues to set up further east, it should turn over to snow fairly quickly. Flurries falling here, I'm ready to see what this storm does here locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Anyone got GGEM snowfall output for the next week, looks like many possible hits for the northeast. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just noticed it looks like BGM threw up advisories in their CWA to include the PA counties of Lackawanna, Luzerne, Pike, and southern Wayne. Could be a sign CTP may expand a bit. Pit likely needs to at least add Indiana to their advisory area given their snow map and overall trends. Don't know if the GFS/GEFS did enough for CTP to add a tier to the warning area, but if they don't expand warnings I expect they will be bringing their 4-6 and 2-4 areas northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Getting pretty heavy rain right now. 38.6/34.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Getting pretty heavy rain right now. 38.6/34.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ccx03_0552.png I'm not getting snow any time soon. Now short term models don;t have MD line areas turning over till like 5am. Rain away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Light flurry activity here in Altoona temp at 34.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warm air is going to win an keep down totals. Typical fail zone right over my county perfectly modeled now. I am in like a little 3-4" hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warm air is going to win an keep down totals. Typical fail zone right over my county perfectly modeled now. I am in like a little 3-4" hole. Wmsptwx and I will have a spot waiting for you in the complaint thread first thing in the morning Zack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Warm air is going to win an keep down totals. Typical fail zone right over my county perfectly modeled now. I am in like a little 3-4" hole. Wmsptwx and I will have a spot waiting for you in the complaint thread first thing in the morning Zack. You might get more snow than me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Zak...you are taking the output of the model and bringing it down to like a 5X5 square mile area that says 3-4. The rest of Franklin is 4-8". Do you honestly believe the model could nail absolutely precisely where all the final accumulations will be? The output has moved the axis of the heaviest considerably both north and south during the past 6 hours. You are under a Warning for 6 to 8". You yourself have predicted 6-9". Don't you have faith in your own forecasts? Don't go all to pieces on us now. Always remain optimistic, and remember the upcoming storms...especially the weekend storm. Plenty to look forward to. Just keep looking at the radar and how great it looks to our southwest. It's headed our way and will be well underway in less than 6 hours! So, just go to bed now and then wake up at 7 and enjoy the snow coming down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Zak...you are taking the output of the model and bringing it down to like a 5X5 square mile area that says 3-4. The rest of Franklin is 4-8". Do you honestly believe the model could nail absolutely precisely where all the final accumulations will be? The output has moved the axis of the heaviest considerably both north and south during the past 6 hours. You are under a Warning for 6 to 8". You yourself have predicted 6-9". Don't you have faith in your own forecasts? Don't go all to pieces on us now. Always remain optimistic, and remember the upcoming storms...especially the weekend storm. Plenty to look forward to. Just keep looking at the radar and how great it looks to our southwest. It's headed our way and will be well underway in less than 6 hours! So, just go to bed now and then wake up at 7 and enjoy the snow coming down. For here ya. Every time there is a hole over my house, I am like that can't be right.. it is, every dang time. With it being 38 at 1:23 and raining. No I don't think 6-9" here. 3-5" I think is more likely, you will still be fine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 You might get more snow than me. lol That changeover is making progress, it looks like it is pressing SE to along/near a Shippensburg-Chambersburg-Carisle-Harrisburg line now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That changeover is making progress, it looks like it is pressing SE to along/near a Shippensburg-Chambersburg-Carisle-Harrisburg line now. 37.8/34 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Steady snow has arrived here, light dusting so far. Now snowing hard in Bedford and Breezewood as per 511 cams with snow on the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That changeover is making progress, it looks like it is pressing SE to along/near a Shippensburg-Chambersburg-Carisle-Harrisburg line now. Plain rain in midtown Harrisburg and 37 degrees. Looks like changeover is imminent on radar, but I suspect that rain/snow line is not accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 The side road near my house is covered but the main road out front is just wet, but looking at radar, shouldn't take too long before that is covered as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That changeover is making progress, it looks like it is pressing SE to along/near a Shippensburg-Chambersburg-Carisle-Harrisburg line now. Wow Mag, are you reading that from the dual pole radar? You are absolutely correct. My temp is down to 36.3 and wet snowflakes are now mixing in with the rain. My experience has shown me that whenever a change from rain to snow is going to occur, it usually occurs when the temp drops to close to 36. That's exactly what it did back on the Halloween storm as I dropped from around 41 down to 31.5 and then got 6" of snow from that storm. Take note, Zak, your changeover is imminent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Man it is poring and those are some big rain drops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow Mag, are you reading that from the dual pole radar? You are absolutely correct. My temp is down to 36.3 and wet snowflakes are now mixing in with the rain. My experience has shown me that whenever a change from rain to snow is going to occur, it usually occurs when the temp drops to close to 36. That's exactly what it did back on the Halloween storm as I dropped from around 41 down to 31.5 and then got 6" of snow from that storm. Take note, Zak, your changeover is imminent! You are significantly more north than me. It will take much longer to get here. I suspect another 2hrs at min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z European has the classic C-PA dip in 850 0C line for Wednesdays storm. UNV looked to have stayed all snow on it.. 0 line gets just barely above MDT. North Central and Wsptwx get slammed. 6 hour frame of 0.5-0.75" up there. Gotta love it, they'll be taking headlines down after this current storm moves out later today and probably quickly replacing them with watches for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0z European has the classic C-PA dip in 850 0C line for Wednesdays storm. UNV looked to have stayed all snow on it.. 0 line gets just barely above MDT. North Central and Wsptwx get slammed. 6 hour frame of 0.5-0.75" up there. Gotta love it, they'll be taking headlines down after this current storm moves out later today and probably quickly replacing them with watches for everyone. just checked the quick forecast on NWS site and it shows 4-8" just for tuesday night for my area? hope i can squeeze out a 6"+ storm this year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 euro tonight was redic. 1.3" qpf over southern tier. Makes nam look dry. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.