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Central PA and The Fringes - February 2014


PennMan

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Just a devastating ice event for Central PA on the 12z GFS. The period from 1am to 7am Wed morning has over 1" of precip for a large area with temps only approaching freezing by daybreak. 

 

post-1406-0-11732500-1391271603_thumb.pn

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Imageanis.php

 

Of course if temps are 31-32 that would mean much of the heavy rain runs off instead of freezes...

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Just a devastating ice event for Central PA on the 12z GFS. The period from 1am to 7am Wed morning has over 1" of precip for a large area with temps only approaching freezing by daybreak. 

 

attachicon.gifScreen Shot 2014-02-01 at 11.19.22 AM.png

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Imageanis.php

 

Of course if temps are 31-32 that would mean much of the heavy rain runs off instead of freezes...

And that will depend where temps wind up when the ZR starts...

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I'm still not sold on big ice, at least up this way. I think the GFS is still getting rid of the cold at 850mb too fast. I like the 00z Euro solution better, which holds onto the cold longer and has not much precip left after 850s finally pop above 0°C.

 

And I still am not convinced Monday isn't coming further north.

 

So I have no problem discussing both storms.

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I'm still not sold on big ice, at least up this way. I think the GFS is still getting rid of the cold at 850mb too fast. I like the 00z Euro solution better, which holds onto the cold longer and has not much precip left after 850s finally pop above 0°C.

 

And I still am not convinced Monday isn't coming further north.

 

So I have no problem discussing both storms.

GGEM I believe also favors an ECM-style solution for 2/4-5, quicker transfer.

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seems like a solid 6-10 inch plaster bomb down our way.

I was thinking 6 was a definite possibility but after seeing the 12Z runs minus the Euro I now think 3-6 is a better call. 6-10 might be a bit premature, we would need another small jog north. Definitely don't want it to come more then 50 miles North. These storms tend to happen further north then originally modeled to begin with. Hope is there for another LSV special.

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I'm still not sold on big ice, at least up this way. I think the GFS is still getting rid of the cold at 850mb too fast. I like the 00z Euro solution better, which holds onto the cold longer and has not much precip left after 850s finally pop above 0°C.

 

And I still am not convinced Monday isn't coming further north.

 

So I have no problem discussing both storms.

 

That leads me to think that the third possibility is also entirely possible...lots o sleet.

 

We really need to see what is going on above 850mb to get the whole picture. 

 

Looking at the TwisterData Skew-Ts, the gridpoint to the SW of State College (around Huntington) is borderline snow/sleet at 90 hr, while the point nearest to Lock Haven is squarely snow. By 96, both locations are way above freezing at 700-900mb but near freezing at the surface.

 

Precip type will be a close call for many areas and it may not be settled until the event is underway.

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Wxbell should focus more on making their maps more realistic. They're plain awful. But they tell some what they want to hear.

With all due respect, I believe the WxBell maps are done quite well! One has to understand that their maps are simply an algorithm based on whatever the final output request might be. In terms of the snow maps, I believe this is done by accumulating EVERY flake of snow and most are quite aware this is not the case in the real world. One of their snowfall maps actually includes surface melting along with the accumulation (I believe the 12Km NAM). But for all of the critical remarks concerning the WxBell maps, personally I feel they are drawn very well and are one of the best available today. I also really utilize the College of DuPage, too.

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

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12z GFS for UNV:

 


140205/0300Z  87  11010KT  18.0F  SNOW   13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0140205/0600Z  90  10011KT  16.8F  SNOW    7:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.375    7:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.40  100|  0|  0140205/0900Z  93  09010KT  16.8F  SNOW   10:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.853    9:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.26  100|  0|  0140205/1200Z  96  13007KT  25.6F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.51|| 0.489    9:1| 11.3|| 0.00|| 0.51|| 1.74    0|  0|100----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---140205/1500Z  99  19005KT  26.9F  SNPL    7:1| 0.2|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.025    9:1| 11.5|| 0.03|| 0.51|| 1.77   36| 64|  0140205/1800Z 102  26011KT  35.1F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009    9:1| 11.5|| 0.03|| 0.51|| 1.78   56|  0| 44
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