nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 High res nam has snow jackpot south of DC. 7AM dc temp 35 10AM dc temp 32 1PM dc temp 33 10A SIM radar is nice...30+ DBZ over DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 what is is for just west of DC say Fairfax.. western burbs pretty uniform. 33 @ 7am and 32 by 10AM. MD burbs to nw stay at 32 @ 1pm. VA burbs 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What is the timing look like from start to finish with this Monday event..? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA looks about half frozen here. http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=VA&stn=KDCA&model=nam&time=2014020112&field=prec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Cool. Enjoy the snow up there in the tundra. Invite Fozz over. Not sure what you want me to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Id rather have this than colder and drier exactly. I'll take my chances with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 9z SREF seems to like the idea of a paste bomb. DC now just within the 0.5" area for 6 hrly precip totals. Sfc freezing line mean looks to be right near/over DC. I will definitely take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Not sure what you want me to say? Randy, I'm sending you $1200 for a new MacBook Air? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 exactly. I'll take my chances with this.Yes, let's all check off a period of heavy snow from the list. I did well on 1/21 but it was pulsing. This has downpour potential. I'm in. Gonna be some heavy thermo staring all evening and night tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 9z SREF seems to like the idea of a paste bomb. DC now just within the 0.5" area for 6 hrly precip totals. Sfc freezing line mean looks to be right near DC. Did you hear? Seattle Seahawks are going to the superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think upping precip totals is the biggest trend. All guidance is a close call on temps. I may be far enough nw but I'm still close as heck to pain. With that said, I can totally live with heavy wet snow and 34-35*. That seems worst case for me as of right now. A bit anxious for the gfs. Nam bounces around too much outside of 48 to feel confident with any solution when riding the line. Same here. The increase in QPF is pretty astonishing, and if we can get those rates, those of us a little north and west of the cities and with just a little elevation may do OK. I hope the city folk do well, but we're all walking a fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Randy, I'm sending you $1200 for a new MacBook Air? Mmmmm, sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Id rather have this than colder and drier I'd rather have colder and wetter. It needs to stop going north or even JYO will torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Did you hear? Seattle Seahawks are going to the superbowl. The 12th man will make it snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yes, let's all check off a period of heavy snow from the list. I did well on 1/21 but it was pulsing. This has downpour potential. I'm in. Gonna be some heavy thermo staring all evening and night tomorrow. This isn't as cold of air mass coming as that one was. I too did well but this one i think is trickier than that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Did you hear? Seattle Seahawks are going to the superbowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCWeatherGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feel bad for the local DC mets on this one. "It might be a lot of snow. Or some snow. Or some snow and some rain. Or a wintery mix. Or just a lot of rain." Question for those far wiser than I: Do we need to consider the fact that each of the last two meaningful snow events had featured across-the-board modelling which was significantly off the mark (to the low side)? My gut reaction when I see models spitting out 31s and 32s for DC is to assume those are going to end up being 35s and 36s. But I have no scientific basis for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This isn't as cold of air mass coming as that one was. I too did well but this one i think is trickier than that one. I'm nervous for sure but totally digging the trends towards a mini-precip bomb now. As long as the heaviest period falls as snow I can deal with melting potatoes on contact. My post my mostly about the possibility of a few hours of low vis heavy snow. Stickage is a whole different discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feel bad for the local DC mets on this one. "It might be a lot of snow. Or some snow. Or some snow and some rain. Or a wintery mix. Or just a lot of rain." Question for those far wiser than I: Do we need to consider the fact that each of the last two meaningful snow events had featured across-the-board modelling which was significantly off the mark (to the low side)? My gut reaction when I see models spitting out 31s and 32s for DC is to assume those are going to end up being 35s and 36s. But I have no scientific basis for that. Again, they need to forecast like they do in Alaska. Chance of rain and snow. Highs 30-45. Chance of precip 60%. Snow accumulations 1-12 inches. That forecast would probably nail Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feel bad for the local DC mets on this one. "It might be a lot of snow. Or some snow. Or some snow and some rain. Or a wintery mix. Or just a lot of rain." Question for those far wiser than I: Do we need to consider the fact that each of the last two meaningful snow events had featured across-the-board modelling which was significantly off the mark (to the low side)? My gut reaction when I see models spitting out 31s and 32s for DC is to assume those are going to end up being 35s and 36s. But I have no scientific basis for that. Every weather system is different so no, its not wise to assume that...At this time, the main factor is dynamical cooling..DC will almsot undoubtly be upper 30s in the dawn hr time period BUT the heavy rates could make it 32 by 10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Feel bad for the local DC mets on this one. "It might be a lot of snow. Or some snow. Or some snow and some rain. Or a wintery mix. Or just a lot of rain." Question for those far wiser than I: Do we need to consider the fact that each of the last two meaningful snow events had featured across-the-board modelling which was significantly off the mark (to the low side)? My gut reaction when I see models spitting out 31s and 32s for DC is to assume those are going to end up being 35s and 36s. But I have no scientific basis for that. Fwiw, 1/2 was colder than modeled. Precip was supposed to start at rain but instead was all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gunna' be bombs away post 48 hrs on the RGEM if it's right, temps the issue as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 really impressive UVV's on the RGEM at 48 hrs too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Did you hear? Seattle Seahawks are going to the superbowl. It'll either be snowing or raining skittles. Temps TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Here is your clown map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 gunna' be bombs away post 48 hrs on the RGEM if it's right, temps the issue as well Canada needs to move out of the Magellan era with those god awful maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bastardi all over it..says his idea of 2 days ago fits with the nam..showing heaviest axis though DCA/ NOVA/ Philly..paints about 7 inches..hmm he said the heaviest snows would creep a bit more north, to rt 6 in pa and give NYC 3-6, thinks dc is out of heaviest snowfall. Who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Here is your clown map I just had to adjust myself after looking at this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Canada needs to move out of the Magellan era with those god awful maps The dude who has to draw them by hand with a #2 pencil every 6 hours is very sad with your post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 hmm, just checked soundings at READY and it does NOT have the warm layer at 48 hrs at 800 mb like that other link I wonder 1013. 51. 0.3 0.1 22.2 4.2 1000. 156. -0.3 -0.4 29.6 7.1 975. 358. -1.7 -1.9 40.6 10.3 950. 565. -1.9 -2.2 46.0 10.0 925. 777. -1.8 -2.0 45.5 7.1 900. 995. -1.5 -1.6 36.7 6.3 875. 1219. -0.9 -1.0 18.8 4.8 850. 1451. -0.8 -0.9 9.0 1.6 825. 1690. -0.3 -0.3 203.9 4.8 800. 1936. -0.5 -0.4 220.8 8.7 775. 2190. -0.8 -0.8 229.6 13.0 750. 2452. -0.9 -0.9 230.8 17.3 725. 2723. -1.1 -1.2 232.3 19.7 700. 3003. -1.7 -1.8 237.0 21.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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