stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Definitely NAM'd between 51-60. Upstairs is def cold enough..it's the pesky surface... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If it is marginal at DCA, you gotta like your chances anywhere to the North... seems the trends are positive. At this time tomorrow morning we will have a Watch if the models stay consistent. I agree but actually think, all things considered, models have been as consistent as they can be considering we started tracking this thing at 5 days the details are now coming out now that we're 48 hrs away; some details we will like and others not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This will be a rush hour disaster for many if it happens as depicted and people don't take heed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm glad at least it's going to be cloudy Sunday, otherwise I'd be afraid we pop into the 60s LOL. This one could further extend the extreme discrepancy between total winter snowfall for DC and areas just an hour north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think upping precip totals is the biggest trend. All guidance is a close call on temps. I may be far enough nw but I'm still close as heck to pain. With that said, I can totally live with heavy wet snow and 34-35*. That seems worst case for me as of right now. A bit anxious for the gfs. Nam bounces around too much outside of 48 to feel confident with any solution when riding the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Well, the good news for you guys is that the 975 temps look good. The bad news is that the surface dews are around freezing even at 15z. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 no clown maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nah, I enjoy not having to get in a car to get groceries and my corner bars Snow is nice, but it's only a quarter of the year. Well down here, 4 weeks. Ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 no clown maps? Flawed Wxbell says dc jackpot. On phone so can't post. 6-8"? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 no clown maps? Clown maps are for clowns, but I'll post the coolwx totals when they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 If the NAM were to verify WRT to temps and precip amounts, I'd be fine with that. Start as rain showers then flip to heavy wet snow paste during the heaviest rates. It'd probably be like 3-4" with QPF over 1"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 no clown maps? Plenty of clowns. I hope everyone knows that's an affectionate remark. I just can't get over the NAM. You have to know somewhere there are people in southern Va wondering what the NAM did with yesterday's snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ok Cool. Enjoy the snow up there in the tundra. Invite Fozz over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Plenty of clowns. I hope everyone knows that's an affectionate remark. I just can't get over the NAM. You have to know somewhere there are people in southern Va wondering what the NAM did with yesterday's snow storm. I think there are two scenarios (for us city folks).....it's going to be snowing with wet streets and barely sticking on grassy areas....or ripping like a mofo with significant accumulations. Models all seem to agree that upstairs, we're fine... but then again, they had me at 22 at the beginning of the last storm and I was at 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Which one has a warm bias, the GFS or the NAM....it seems both have the r/s line about the same place..as the storm rides the front the line drops south a bit..getting NOVA in the nice blues.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM is a carp load of precip either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Temps are a concern but its not like it hasnt snowed and accumulated at 33 or 34F before...I like where we stand at the moment, but yeah deff no more north than it is now on NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I could see this moving a hair north, but it can't really go any more north, however I also could see it trend a bit wetter..this 12z will be telling for the GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 With 36 hours, will end up Trenton To Harrisburg to Morgantown Special.Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Temps are a concern but its not like it hasnt snowed and accumulated at 33 or 34F before...I like where we stand at the moment, but yeah deff no more north than it is now on NAM. every inch north you can get in N MD helps....I have a neighbor 6 houses to my north I'm planning on staying with on Monday... ok, maybe not, but the thought crossed my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I could see this moving a hair north, but it can't really go any more north, however I also could see it trend a bit wetter..this 12z will be telling for the GFS.. What are you, nostradamus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I could see this moving a hair north, but it can't really go any more north, however I also could see it trend a bit wetter..this 12z will be telling for the GFS.. it's limited on how far north it can go too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 High res nam has snow jackpot south of DC. 7AM dc temp 35 10AM dc temp 32 1PM dc temp 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 every inch north you can get in N MD helps....I have a neighbor 6 houses to my north I'm planning on staying with on Monday... ok, maybe not, but the thought crossed my mind And up too.... elevation could be a huge factor this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Id rather have this than colder and drier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bastardi all over it..says his idea of 2 days ago fits with the nam..showing heaviest axis though DCA/ NOVA/ Philly..paints about 7 inches..hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 every inch north you can get in N MD helps....I have a neighbor 6 houses to my north I'm planning on staying with on Monday... ok, maybe not, but the thought crossed my mind I might go from Essex to Perry Hall on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 High res nam has max stripe of precip just south of DC. DC in the .7-.8 contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 High res nam has snow jackpot south of DC. 7AM dc temp 35 10AM dc temp 32 1PM dc temp 33 what is is for just west of DC say Fairfax.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BWI: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kbwi.txt DCA: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt IAD:http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt warm at 800mb at all locations at 48 hrs, then it cools IAD and BWI it's only .2C and .3C respectively while DCA is .9C IAD and BWI, verbatim would likely overcome that IF the rates are good (and they are) and the layer is thin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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