mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam @ 39h is faster and warmer fwiw, 6z RGEM looked that way to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam @ 39h is faster and warmer That's the problem. the farther north and wetter the wave gets, the warmer it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 NAM looks fine to me as long as the north trend stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Uh oh nam is looking warm surface freezing line doesn't make it to dc for the best precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 51 is a shellacking...freezing sfc barely..850's below 0. Way too close for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 This has the potential to be the biggest storm of the year for many of us. Crazy trends in the qpf numbers overnight. I hope the front makes it through quickly for all of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam looks good to me, snowfall map on instant weather shows 5" by hr 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wow that is certainly a lot of precip, if that cold air makes it in we could get a serious pasting and if doesn't another epic fail, edge of your seat fun this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol..NAM has this weird surface freezing depiction...unless the graphics are messed up. 32 line runs through DC, then curves NORTH for western areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 LOL at the changes to the NAM over the past 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam 48 hrs DCA Date: 48 hour Eta valid 12Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1012 57 0.7 0.4 98 0.3 0.6 17 8 272.9 273.6 273.1 283.4 3.89 1 1000 151 0.1 0.0 99 0.1 0.1 22 13 273.2 273.9 273.2 283.6 3.82 2 950 561 -1.2 -1.4 99 0.1 -1.3 45 23 275.9 276.6 274.5 285.9 3.64 3 900 993 -0.7 -0.9 99 0.2 -0.8 41 14 280.8 281.4 277.6 291.8 3.98 4 850 1450 -0.2 -0.3 100 0.1 -0.3 81 5 285.9 286.7 280.6 298.4 4.40 5 800 1937 0.9 0.8 99 0.1 0.8 217 20 292.1 293.0 284.1 306.7 5.05 6 750 2454 -0.6 -0.6 100 0.0 -0.6 222 34 296.0 296.9 285.5 310.4 4.89 7 700 3005 -1.8 -1.8 100 0.0 -1.8 223 39 300.5 301.4 287.1 314.9 4.80 8 650 3593 -4.0 -4.2 98 0.3 -4.1 221 51 304.5 305.3 288.0 317.7 4.30 9 600 4222 -6.6 -7.1 96 0.5 -6.8 222 64 308.5 309.2 288.8 320.3 3.75 10 550 4897 -10.1 -10.8 94 0.7 -10.4 225 74 312.2 312.7 289.3 321.9 3.06 11 500 5624 -14.4 -15.4 92 1.0 -14.7 228 78 315.5 316.0 289.7 323.1 2.31 12 450 6416 -19.8 -21.2 89 1.4 -20.2 229 77 318.3 318.6 289.9 323.6 1.57 13 400 7279 -26.2 -27.6 88 1.4 -26.5 228 78 320.9 321.1 290.1 324.4 0.99 14 350 8229 -33.9 -35.3 87 1.4 -34.1 228 77 323.0 323.1 290.3 325.0 0.54 15 300 9288 -43.1 -45.9 74 2.8 -43.2 228 81 324.7 324.7 290.4 325.5 0.21 16 250 10484 -53.5 -57.0 66 3.4 -53.6 234 99 326.5 326.5 290.8 326.8 0.07 17 200 11894 -58.8 -72.0 17 13.1 -59.0 245 119 339.6 339.6 294.2 339.6 0.01 18 150 13718 -57.4 -84.0 2 26.6 -57.7 253 113 371.1 371.1 300.8 371.1 0.00 19 100 16205 -70.1 -81.8 16 11.8 -70.1 247 82 392.4 392.4 304.2 392.4 0.00 51 hrs cold enough for snow but..... Date: 51 hour Eta valid 15Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1014 57 0.1 -0.1 99 0.2 -0.0 7 10 272.1 272.8 272.4 282.2 3.73 1 1000 169 -0.7 10 16 272.5 2 950 577 -1.9 -2.1 98 0.2 -2.0 32 22 275.3 275.8 273.8 284.7 3.44 3 900 1007 -1.8 -2.0 98 0.2 -1.9 24 16 279.6 280.3 276.6 289.8 3.66 4 850 1462 -1.9 -2.1 99 0.1 -2.0 39 10 284.1 284.8 279.1 295.0 3.86 5 800 1945 -1.5 -1.5 99 0.1 -1.5 216 8 289.6 290.4 282.1 301.9 4.27 6 750 2459 -2.1 -2.1 100 0.1 -2.1 235 23 294.3 295.1 284.2 307.2 4.37 7 700 3006 -3.3 -3.4 99 0.1 -3.4 231 34 298.8 299.5 285.8 311.5 4.24 8 650 3591 -4.8 -5.3 97 0.4 -5.0 244 43 303.5 304.2 287.3 315.7 3.98 9 600 4217 -8.4 -9.8 90 1.3 -8.9 249 45 306.4 306.9 287.3 315.9 3.03 10 550 4887 -12.5 -13.9 89 1.4 -12.9 242 52 309.3 309.7 287.7 316.9 2.37 11 500 5609 -16.6 -18.3 87 1.7 -17.1 233 70 312.8 313.2 288.3 318.7 1.81 12 450 6392 -22.6 -30.4 49 7.8 -24.0 227 80 314.8 315.0 287.8 317.2 0.68 13 400 7243 -29.7 -39.6 38 9.9 -30.8 228 86 316.4 316.5 287.9 317.5 0.31 14 350 8181 -36.0 -41.0 60 5.0 -36.4 232 107 320.2 320.3 289.2 321.3 0.30 15 300 9237 -42.5 -54.0 27 11.6 -43.0 234 116 325.5 325.5 290.5 325.8 0.08 16 250 10450 -49.2 239 117 333.0 17 200 11889 -55.5 240 100 345.0 18 150 13720 -58.0 248 109 370.1 19 100 16197 -69.6 252 85 393.3 54hrs Date: 54 hour Eta valid 18Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1015 57 0.4 -1.1 89 1.5 -0.2 2 10 272.4 273.0 272.2 281.8 3.47 1 1000 176 -0.9 -1.7 95 0.8 -1.2 6 14 272.2 272.8 271.9 281.4 3.37 2 950 584 -2.7 -3.0 98 0.3 -2.9 18 21 274.4 274.9 273.0 283.2 3.21 3 900 1012 -3.0 -3.3 97 0.3 -3.1 13 16 278.5 279.0 275.5 287.7 3.33 4 850 1466 -2.7 -2.9 98 0.2 -2.7 357 9 283.4 284.0 278.4 293.6 3.63 5 800 1947 -2.6 -2.9 98 0.2 -2.7 268 11 288.3 289.0 281.1 299.5 3.87 6 750 2458 -3.4 -3.5 99 0.1 -3.4 262 21 292.9 293.6 283.1 304.4 3.93 7 700 3003 -4.8 -5.1 98 0.3 -4.9 255 30 297.2 297.9 284.7 308.4 3.75 8 650 3584 -6.6 -7.7 92 1.1 -7.0 249 41 301.5 302.1 285.9 311.6 3.29 9 600 4205 -10.5 -12.5 85 2.0 -11.2 249 52 304.0 304.5 285.9 311.7 2.45 10 550 4869 -15.0 -19.2 70 4.2 -16.1 243 66 306.3 306.6 285.8 311.2 1.52 11 500 5583 -19.2 -30.3 37 11.1 -21.2 237 77 309.6 309.7 285.9 311.7 0.61 12 450 6358 -24.7 -42.4 18 17.7 -26.6 237 79 312.2 312.2 286.4 312.9 0.20 13 400 7205 -30.3 -57.8 5 27.5 -31.9 240 82 315.6 315.6 287.3 315.8 0.04 14 350 8141 -36.3 -63.7 4 27.4 -37.4 244 87 319.8 319.8 288.7 319.8 0.02 15 300 9197 -41.8 -66.7 5 24.9 -42.6 248 101 326.4 326.4 290.7 326.5 0.02 16 250 10417 -47.2 -67.6 8 20.4 -47.7 250 110 335.8 335.8 293.3 335.9 0.02 17 200 11871 -53.7 -74.5 6 20.8 -54.0 253 98 347.7 347.7 296.1 347.7 0.01 18 150 13710 -58.3 -81.7 3 23.5 -58.5 247 111 369.7 369.7 300.5 369.7 0.00 19 100 16185 -69.6 -82.0 15 12.4 -69.7 250 86 393.2 393.2 304.3 393.3 0.00 Better have rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Almost 1.2" QPF at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol..NAM has this weird surface freezing depiction...unless the graphics are messed up. 32 line runs through DC, then curves NORTH for western areas their precip is not as heavy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Following the models this weekend is going to be fun but I feel we won't really know what's going to happen until the incoming precip is imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We look cold enough for snow surprisingly throughout. Riding marginal is not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just think of what we would be looking at if it was 10 degrees colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We look cold enough for snow surprisingly throughout. Riding marginal is not fun. yeah it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol..NAM has this weird surface freezing depiction...unless the graphics are messed up. 32 line runs through DC, then curves NORTH for western areas Randy, that's because the column around DC is being cooled by strong vertical motion.....those precip rates. Weaken those a bit and we get screwed. Live near the river and the temps probably will be slower to respond than forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just think of what we would be looking at if it was 10 degrees colder... a central and southern VA snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 With 36 hours, will end up Trenton To Harrisburg to Morgantown Special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 We look cold enough for snow surprisingly throughout. Riding marginal is not fun. Move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just think of what we would be looking at if it was 10 degrees colder... DCA would get an extra half inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 a central and southern VA snow storm Good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Driving (cold) rain storm -- My favorite! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Move north Nah, I enjoy not having to get in a car to get groceries and my corner bars Snow is nice, but it's only a quarter of the year. Well down here, 4 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 lol..NAM has this weird surface freezing depiction...unless the graphics are messed up. 32 line runs through DC, then curves NORTH for western areas To me its showing colder temps where the rates are heavier, like HM said could be heavy snow surrounded by rain showers on all sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 10am Monday. 6 hour precip and 2m temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'll always think of it as the paste bomb bowl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Randy, that's because the column around DC is being cooled by strong vertical motion.....those precip rates. Weaken those a bit and we get screwed. Live near the river and the temps probably will be slower to respond than forecast. If it is marginal at DCA, you gotta like your chances anywhere to the North... seems the trends are positive. At this time tomorrow morning we will have a Watch if the models stay consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 To me its showing colder temps where the rates are heavier, like HM said could be heavy snow surrounded by rain showers on all sides. we all know where the best bands usually set up in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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