North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 So, I'm assuming we got some optimistic model guidance last night? Optimistic enough to start thinking about a few inches some 20 miles north of Baltimore? A joke? Read the thread, the usual good posters well covered the dynamics at play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I cannot support this event until temps are safe. Which is why I have to keep both feet of the rug for me. If it all comes together right, it could be great, but until then personally I will keep it safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It will work itself out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 For DC south we have to realize that until the temp issue is resolved there will be huge bust potential. Most, if not all, of the borderline temps storms in DC take a long time to completely cool. DTs first guess map is fun to look at but gotta factor in reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The lack of posts this AM are two things, a lot of folks went to bed late after the Euro and a healthy skepticism that much of the area can overcome iffy temps for this to really work out. Lingering memories of 3/5 and 2/10 busts from 2013 in similar set-ups. Yeah temps worry me. My high tomorrow is forecasted to be near 50 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Latest SREFS even wetter. Even it's temps look iffy unless you are north and west of DC. Even so, it looks like some will see a good snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The lack of posts this AM are two things, a lot of folks went to bed late after the Euro and a healthy skepticism that much of the area can overcome iffy temps for this to really work out. Lingering memories of 3/5 and 2/10 busts from 2013 in similar set-ups. I say it's both sleep and the 6z didn't torch so it is a waiting game. Hopes will ride on the 12z suite to see if the wetter/colder trend continues, especially from the euro. GFS ones seem to be on the cold side but that is to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Quite the little power punch near and NW of DC on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Latest SREFS even wetter. Even it's temps look iffy unless you are north and west of DC. Even so, it looks like some will see a good snow out of this. DC really can't deal with iffy temps. Iffy temps mean rain and lost QPF. It means bust after bust. You guys look golden, fairly good certain storm out there. I don't know about the rest of the metro folks, but I'm cautious until I see snow accumulating. Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 06z GFS gives Westminster .5 qpf of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 06z GFS gives Westminster .5 qpf of snow It's a marginal, high QPF quick hitter... you're in a great spot. DC and lower elevations... much more iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Quite the little power punch near and NW of DC on the GFS. Looks like DC is good too..but barely. SREF's keep getting wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's a marginal, high QPF quick hitter... you're in a great spot. DC and lower elevations... much more iffy. So it seems. Not getting excited yet tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I say it's both sleep and the 6z didn't torch so it is a waiting game. Hopes will ride on the 12z suite to see if the wetter/colder trend continues, especially from the euro. GFS ones seem to be on the cold side but that is to be expected. For DC south we have to realize that until the temp issue is resolved there will be huge bust potential. Most, if not all, of the borderline temps storms in DC take a long time to completely cool. DTs first guess map is fun to look at but gotta factor in reality It's good to see that we've all learned a little. Temps are definitely a concern. As modeled now, we're good...but it's way too marginal. I mean look how we did last time....we were in the "golden' zone and models busted by like 8 degrees on temps and when we finally did get cold, we still couldn't accumulate properly for another 3 hours after that. Gotta love the city and immediate burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like DC is good too..but barely. SREF's keep getting wetter. On 1/21 models said we(you and me) would be at 32 by 3am and keep falling. I didn't hit 32 until 1pm. Color me skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The lack of posts this AM are two things, a lot of folks went to bed late after the Euro and a healthy skepticism that much of the area can overcome iffy temps for this to really work out. Lingering memories of 3/5 and 2/10 busts from 2013 in similar set-ups. You do know it's Saturday morning, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 On 1/21 models said we(you and me) would be at 32 by 3am and keep falling. I didn't hit 32 until 1pm. Color me skeptical See my other post after that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 6z NAM soundings are completely below freezing by 9z Monday for the BWI and DC area. Surface is about 31-32F it looks like. 6z GFS has a warm layer around 800mb at 12z Monday. Looks like the temp is right around freezing there...the layer is fairly thin. Rest of the column is below freezing. 800mb is safely below freezing by 18z, but most of the precip is done then. Probably can be over done with rates, but it's close. BWI at 12z: 850. 1469. -0.7 -1.2 220.7 2.1800. 1956. 0.3 -0.1 227.8 10.2750. 2473. -1.2 -1.4 232.3 14.8 by 15Z: 850. 1472. -0.8 -1.6 184.8 1.6800. 1958. -0.3 -1.3 230.7 7.8750. 2472. -2.2 -2.9 236.2 10.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 See my other post after that one. I love you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You do know it's Saturday morning, right? That too. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Cool. We all be crying tho if we are a smidge warmer than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Cool. I'd be crying tho if we are a smidge warmer than modeled. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Cool. We all be crying tho if we are a smidge warmer than modeled. Not me. Unless you mean warmer as in rain. I don't see much of that from dc north. Good chance this will be the heaviest rate storm of the year by far. If I can add 1-2" on the seasonal ill be totally happy. It has some paste potential for sure. Temps are in a pretty tight envelope and qpf keeps going up. I'm in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BWI mean on SREF is 4.81" http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20121212&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Not me. Unless you mean warmer as in rain. I don't see much of that from dc north. Good chance this will be the heaviest rate storm of the year by far. If I can add 1-2" on the seasonal ill be totally happy. It has some paste potential for sure. Temps are in a pretty tight envelope and qpf keeps going up. I'm in I am hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpasi Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BWI mean on SREF is 4.81" http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20121212&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Whats the mean for IAD/ DCA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Not me. Unless you mean warmer as in rain. I don't see much of that from dc north. Good chance this will be the heaviest rate storm of the year by far. If I can add 1-2" on the seasonal ill be totally happy. It has some paste potential for sure. Temps are in a pretty tight envelope and qpf keeps going up. I'm in if the American models are closer to being right than wrong, idk about DCA, but you and I should get 4"+, and I'm being a bit conservative I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nam @ 39h is faster and warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Whats the mean for IAD/ DCA.. 4.69" at IAD http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20121212&RT=09&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=IAD&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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