k94 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Welp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 There seems to be an issue with the site. If you hit refresh, I suspect your totals will change. It happened to me on my laptop and my tablet. Had 5-8. I hit refresh and now I'm getting up to an inch. I hit refresh and it's giving me 8-12" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I genuflect to you, dear King. No need for formalities here.. you can just call me Dumbass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Gfs is not right. It did this last storm. Brought in most of the precip earlier than all other models. It as 1-6am as the heavier QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 GFS blows for DC EDIT: Maybe not on the soundings... but it is a smidge warmer 7AM sounding: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 No need for formalities here.. you can just call me Dumbass. I've already been doing that Anyway...now it's our turn.......hey northern people, don't worry...you'll be fine. It's just the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Shots fired In your bed?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Gfs is not right. It did this last storm. Brought in most of the precip earlier than all other models. It as 1-6am as the heavier QPF Well I doubt we even see QPF until at least 3 or 4am so it would seem wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 vort 101 #congratsSNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wundermap has much of the area as snow after 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I've already been doing that Anyway...now it's our turn.......hey northern people, don't worry...you'll be fine. It's just the GFS. I am more worried that Richard Sherman has my SB trophy and Erin Andrews . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 No need for formalities here.. you can just call me Dumbass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Gfs is not right. It did this last storm. Brought in most of the precip earlier than all other models. It as 1-6am as the heavier QPF yes...It was bad on 1/21...you're still in a good spot...the gradient is going to be such that it is almost a see what happens situation...it was a different scenario but remember October 2011?...all the models were too cold,..esp the NAM..and they got the gradient wrong....I dont think anyone can say with confidence who will get 2" and who will get 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I've already been doing that Anyway...now it's our turn.......hey northern people, don't worry...you'll be fine. It's just the GFS. Fortunately for them there's not much time left but this thing has been drifting a bit all along which was one of my early worries.. we hit ground zero (with bad temps) too soon. But.. wouldn't be surprising to see S/C PA jackpot v n md/PA border if this type of solution is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 So will everyone who has thrown in the towel then say tomorrow that they never did? I am too far south for snow. Period. I will get all rain and I will learn to love it. I can't wait to watch the rain accumulate in the usual low places on my back lawn. Tomorrow I will take regular measurements of the rainfall accumulations. I'll try not to slant the ruler too much. I realize that I am being a bit of a debbie downer, but MBY has a substantial warm layer AGL AND a warm nose to deal with. I love snow but that spells R-A-I-N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 7AM sounding: ANd here will be the actual sounding tomorrow, 12z for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Hour 12 on the 0z GFS per TwisterData site.. good VVs over DC and looks like a snow sounding to me. Maybe ever so slightly warm at around 900 mb, but if that area of intense lift gets over DC, its gonna snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ha...sounding looks better than the model output by quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 3, 2014 Author Share Posted February 3, 2014 ha...sounding looks better than the model output by quite a bit Yes surprising how "decent" the sounding looks for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ha...sounding looks better than the model output by quite a bit Wait and see. Anyone who flips to snow near the cities between 6am and 9am will stay that way until rates back off. Nowcasting gets easy from then on. Before that is just waiting. If you don't flip by 9am or 10 latest it is what it is. Not sure what else can be gleaned from models at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 its almost as if the model does not agree with itself...what a crazy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ha...sounding looks better than the model output by quite a bit I'm going with about 2 inches in the heart of DC, with potential for 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 This reminds me somewhat of the late March storm of last winter. Models all looked meh, surface looked warm, 850s were borderline. But the snow maps kept cranking out, looking good run after run. And the SREF snowfall plumes looked good. And that storm delivered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Got him sorry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I guess DCA is getting 8-12 after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 BRB, need to clear my cache and cookies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 That was disturbing. Apologies again. Not sure how that SN made it by to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flyspe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 DCA is getting hammered lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well that was different....ehem, so yeah as I was saying, its going to snow and snow hard in DC. Cant exactly say for how long.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 If you want to feel better, look at the GFS starting at 162 hours, almost TEXTBOOK KU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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