Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 awful for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 0c 850 line is right over DCA at at 7 am... maybe even very slightly east Holds same line at 15z doesn't look like it on this map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=012&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 awful for DC every run is warmer at 3 hrs, it was already warmer than 18z at 9hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What is with the random warm nose at 750? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Just have faith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 every run is warmer at 3 hrs, it was already warmer than 18z at 9hrs it is still an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yuck, that sounding is awful. I'm keeping faith... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 doesn't look like it on this map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=012&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 It is on the AmWx maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think DC's chances are similar to Denver's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 it is still an outlier yeah, but Wes says the NAM usually runs cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 What is with the random warm nose at 750? Look at the winds at 750 on the sounding below. 230 at 70 knots.....that's not random warming, that's warm advection warming. Date: 15 hour Eta valid 15Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1011 57 0.4 -0.2 96 0.6 0.1 30 12 272.7 273.3 272.7 282.7 3.72 1 1000 143 -0.2 32 17 273.0 2 950 552 -0.1 -0.2 100 0.1 -0.2 55 36 277.1 277.7 275.6 288.0 3.97 3 900 985 -0.1 -0.1 100 0.0 -0.1 72 27 281.4 282.1 278.2 293.1 4.21 4 850 1443 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.2 122 15 286.4 287.2 281.0 299.3 4.56 5 800 1931 1.6 1.5 100 0.1 1.5 201 29 292.8 293.8 284.7 308.3 5.34 6 750 2453 3.2 2.8 98 0.3 2.9 222 58 300.0 301.1 288.3 318.6 6.26 7 700 3010 -0.2 -0.3 100 0.0 -0.3 230 70 302.2 303.2 288.2 318.4 5.37 8 650 3602 -2.4 -2.5 99 0.1 -2.4 232 70 306.3 307.2 289.1 321.3 4.89 9 600 4233 -5.8 -6.4 95 0.6 -6.0 238 65 309.4 310.2 289.3 321.8 3.95 10 550 4910 -10.1 -11.2 92 1.1 -10.5 243 67 312.1 312.7 289.2 321.6 2.96 11 500 5639 -14.3 -15.7 89 1.4 -14.7 237 73 315.6 316.0 289.7 323.0 2.24 12 450 6430 -19.4 -21.2 86 1.8 -19.8 232 74 318.9 319.2 290.0 324.2 1.57 13 400 7295 -25.6 -27.9 82 2.2 -26.1 229 78 321.7 321.9 290.3 325.1 0.97 14 350 8248 -33.0 -35.9 76 2.8 -33.4 226 79 324.2 324.3 290.6 326.1 0.51 15 300 9312 -42.1 -45.2 71 3.2 -42.3 223 85 326.1 326.1 290.8 326.9 0.22 16 250 10515 -51.9 226 93 328.9 17 200 11933 -58.2 240 106 340.7 18 150 13759 -58.4 253 96 369.4 19 100 16232 -70.2 250 81 392.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 doesn't look like it on this map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=012&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Looks like it is over DC to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like a pretty nice run for areas north of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I think DC's chances are similar to Denver's Me too but DC doesn't have Manning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 It is on the AmWx maps And on instantweathermaps and Wx Bell. Strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well, when you have a surface-based warm layer, in addition to an elevated warm layer, you get rain. I know, shocking.. ;-) 12Z sounding for DCA Date: 12 hour Eta valid 12Z MON 3 FEB 14 Station: KDCA Latitude: 38.85 Longitude: -77.03 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1011 55 0.9 0.5 97 0.4 0.7 23 11 273.2 273.8 273.3 283.7 3.92 1 1000 143 0.4 0.3 99 0.2 0.4 29 14 273.6 274.2 273.5 284.1 3.90 2 950 554 -0.6 -0.9 98 0.3 -0.7 55 27 276.5 277.2 275.0 286.8 3.76 3 900 988 1.1 0.8 97 0.4 1.0 95 14 282.7 283.5 279.2 295.3 4.50 4 850 1448 1.5 1.3 98 0.3 1.4 163 18 287.7 288.6 282.1 301.8 4.93 5 800 1937 1.3 1.2 99 0.1 1.2 195 32 292.5 293.4 284.4 307.6 5.20 6 750 2457 0.6 0.6 100 0.0 0.6 207 48 297.3 298.2 286.4 313.0 5.34 7 700 3011 -0.3 -0.3 100 0.0 -0.3 216 65 302.2 303.1 288.2 318.3 5.35 8 650 3603 -2.1 -2.1 100 0.0 -2.1 222 76 306.6 307.6 289.4 322.1 5.05 9 600 4236 -4.9 -4.9 100 0.0 -4.8 227 81 310.5 311.3 290.1 324.4 4.44 10 550 4917 -8.3 -8.3 99 0.1 -8.3 230 86 314.3 315.0 290.6 326.2 3.71 11 500 5651 -12.7 -13.3 95 0.6 -12.9 236 84 317.6 318.1 290.7 326.6 2.75 12 450 6446 -18.3 -21.1 79 2.8 -19.1 240 86 320.2 320.5 290.5 325.6 1.58 13 400 7314 -24.8 -30.2 61 5.3 -25.8 242 85 322.7 322.9 290.4 325.5 0.78 14 350 8269 -32.9 -37.8 62 4.9 -33.5 244 82 324.4 324.4 290.5 325.9 0.42 15 300 9333 -41.9 -45.6 67 3.7 -42.2 246 87 326.3 326.3 290.9 327.1 0.22 16 250 10541 -52.0 -55.5 66 3.5 -52.1 240 101 328.7 328.7 291.5 329.1 0.08 17 200 11951 -59.3 -62.8 64 3.5 -59.4 241 115 338.8 338.9 294.1 339.0 0.04 18 150 13764 -59.3 -78.9 6 19.6 -59.5 249 106 367.9 367.9 300.2 367.9 0.01 19 100 16226 -71.0 -82.0 18 11.0 -71.1 255 83 390.5 390.5 303.9 390.6 0.00 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it is over DC to me zoom in, it's not but it doesn't much matter w/the sounding Wes posted as it's warmer higher up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 yeah, but Wes says the NAM usually runs cold That' s mostly at the surface. I'm not sure it is aloft but the 70 knot winds at 230 degrees suggest some warming ought to take place between 12 and 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it is over DC to me That's over us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Looks like it is over DC to me lol do u know where dc is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Me too but DC doesn't have Manning. ha...i guess we can hope the NAM is wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Wow. Huge hit out here. It actually brings the front through a little earlier out thus way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Well, when you have a surface-based warm layer, in addition to an elevated warm layer, you get rain. I know, shocking.. ;-) And really strong warm advection at 750 mb. that's why it warms some after 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 ha...i guess we can hope the NAM is wrong..... Yeah, that's what we need to hope. Even if it's off by 2 degrees, we're still in trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 lol do u know where dc is? maybe over Reston. It doesnt really matter at this time anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 Yeah, that's what we need to hope. Even if it's off by 2 degrees, we're still in trouble. every round of model runs, they get warmer in the mean by the time tomorrow comes, you'll need to have a PA zip code Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 when you look at radar, you can see the rain-snow line is aiming to the north a good bit http://beta.intellicast.com/National/Radar/Current.aspx?enlarge=true&animate=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 every round of model runs, they get warmer in the mean by the time tomorrow comes, you'll need to have a PA zip code Well maybe the gfs will help everyone keep hopes alive. I don't think I'll stay up for the run or if I do stay up late enough I'll be reading not model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 3, 2014 Share Posted February 3, 2014 NAM per WxBell is a slap in DC's face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.