Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II

[ravensrule]

If you're in the direction weather comes from you matter but otherwise not so much. This one could be ugly as the usual gradient could be supercharged. I will not be too excited when you report 8" and I have some slush on my grass.

Lmao, i am just not feeling more than 3-4" for me at best with this. I think Sparky and Mappy will do very well though. Going to watch the SB, someone come find me if the NAM goes haywire.

[BTRWx]

For weenies only http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/gfs/current/KDCA/prec.png

[NorthArlington101]

For weenies only http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/gfs/current/KDCA/prec.png

hugs and runs

[MDstorm]

Lmao, i am just not feeling more than 3-4" for me at best with this. I think Sparky and Mappy will do very well though. Going to watch the SB, someone come find me if the NAM goes haywire.

The SB obviously won't be as good as last year. At least there is some snow to look forward to.

MDstorm

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

For weenies only http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/gfs/current/KDCA/prec.png

[dallen7908]

What a disconnect between americanwx posters, NWS advisories, and point-and-click.

 

Point-and-click now shows 1-3" for much of northern PG county. 

[clskinsfan]

18Z GFS: What Storm?

 

DCA:

140203/0600Z 12 03008KT 40.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/0900Z 15 03009KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 01011KT 34.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 29| 24| 47
140203/1500Z 21 03009KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.322 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 0| 0|100
140203/1800Z 24 01011KT 33.9F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 25| 52| 23

 

IAD:

140203/0600Z 12 02008KT 38.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/0900Z 15 04008KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 36008KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.436 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 72| 0| 28
140203/1500Z 21 02009KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 84| 0| 16
140203/1800Z 24 36009KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 81| 0| 19

 

BWI:

140203/0900Z 15 03011KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 02012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.372 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 63| 0| 37
140203/1500Z 21 01009KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.304 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 64| 0| 36
140203/1800Z 24 01012KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 78| 0| 22

 

MRB:

140203/0600Z 12 36008KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/0900Z 15 03008KT 32.8F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.111 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.14 36| 52| 12
140203/1200Z 18 06004KT 34.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.555 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.69 20| 61| 18
140203/1500Z 21 03009KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 10:1| 1.4|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0
140203/1800Z 24 36008KT 31.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 10:1| 1.7|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.85 100| 0| 0

[mitchnick]

18Z GFS: What Storm?

 

DCA:

140203/0600Z 12 03008KT 40.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140203/0900Z 15 03009KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100

140203/1200Z 18 01011KT 34.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 29| 24| 47

140203/1500Z 21 03009KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.322 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 0| 0|100

140203/1800Z 24 01011KT 33.9F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 25| 52| 23

 

IAD:

140203/0600Z 12 02008KT 38.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140203/0900Z 15 04008KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100

140203/1200Z 18 36008KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.436 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 72| 0| 28

140203/1500Z 21 02009KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 84| 0| 16

140203/1800Z 24 36009KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 81| 0| 19

 

BWI:

140203/0900Z 15 03011KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100

140203/1200Z 18 02012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.372 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 63| 0| 37

140203/1500Z 21 01009KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.304 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 64| 0| 36

140203/1800Z 24 01012KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 78| 0| 22

 

MRB:

140203/0600Z 12 36008KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140203/0900Z 15 03008KT 32.8F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.111 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.14 36| 52| 12

140203/1200Z 18 06004KT 34.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.555 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.69 20| 61| 18

140203/1500Z 21 03009KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 10:1| 1.4|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0

140203/1800Z 24 36008KT 31.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 10:1| 1.7|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.85 100| 0| 0

yet, if you look at the soundings at BWI, it's all snow at 7AM and beyond

there's a real variance between the ncep maps, soundings generated by ncep and Bufkit

[clskinsfan]

NAM:

 

DCA:

140203/0800Z 14 01008KT 40.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100
140203/0900Z 15 02009KT 38.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100
140203/1000Z 16 02010KT 37.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 0| 0|100
140203/1100Z 17 05011KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 06011KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1300Z 19 01011KT 33.9F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.200 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 48| 25| 27
140203/1400Z 20 02011KT 32.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.124 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.66 22| 56| 22
140203/1500Z 21 04010KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.86 0| 0|100
140203/1600Z 22 02010KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.93 0| 0|100
140203/1700Z 23 01010KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.97 0| 0|100
140203/1800Z 24 36010KT 32.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.99 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1900Z 25 35011KT 32.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 7:1| 0.1|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 1.01 90| 0| 10
140203/2000Z 26 36011KT 32.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 8:1| 0.3|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 1.02 90| 0| 10
140203/2100Z 27 01010KT 33.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 8:1| 0.3|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 1.03 0| 0|100

 

IAD:

140203/0800Z 14 36009KT 36.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100
140203/0900Z 15 36010KT 36.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100
140203/1000Z 16 02010KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 0| 0|100
140203/1100Z 17 05011KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 03009KT 33.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1300Z 19 01010KT 32.3F SNOW 11:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.264 11:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0
140203/1400Z 20 02010KT 31.7F SNPL 7:1| 1.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.141 9:1| 3.8|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.80 55| 45| 0
140203/1500Z 21 02010KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.183 9:1| 3.8|| 0.13|| 0.19|| 0.98 0| 0|100
140203/1600Z 22 01009KT 31.9F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.082 9:1| 3.8|| 0.29|| 0.19|| 1.06 4| 96| 0
140203/1700Z 23 36010KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.028 9:1| 3.8|| 0.29|| 0.22|| 1.09 0| 0|100
140203/1800Z 24 35011KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.013 9:1| 3.8|| 0.29|| 0.24|| 1.10 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1900Z 25 35011KT 31.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 9:1| 3.9|| 0.29|| 0.24|| 1.12 100| 0| 0
140203/2000Z 26 36010KT 31.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 4.1|| 0.29|| 0.24|| 1.13 100| 0| 0
140203/2100Z 27 36009KT 32.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 4.1|| 0.29|| 0.24|| 1.14 0| 0|100

 

BWI:

140203/0800Z 14 02009KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100
140203/0900Z 15 03010KT 37.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100
140203/1000Z 16 02010KT 35.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 0| 0|100
140203/1100Z 17 04011KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 05011KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1300Z 19 36010KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 71| 0| 29
140203/1400Z 20 02009KT 32.3F SNPL 10:1| 1.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.102 10:1| 1.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.53 84| 10| 6
140203/1500Z 21 03011KT 32.1F SNZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.139 10:1| 1.0|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.67 34| 45| 22
140203/1600Z 22 02010KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 10:1| 1.0|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.79 0| 0|100
140203/1700Z 23 01010KT 32.1F SNPL 3:1| 0.2|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.068 7:1| 1.2|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.85 54| 46| 0
140203/1800Z 24 01011KT 32.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 7:1| 1.2|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.87 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1900Z 25 36011KT 32.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 7:1| 1.4|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.90 100| 0| 0
140203/2000Z 26 36010KT 32.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 8:1| 1.6|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0
140203/2100Z 27 01009KT 32.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 8:1| 1.7|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.92 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

140203/0400Z 10 33005KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140203/0500Z 11 34006KT 33.9F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 5| 24| 71
140203/0600Z 12 33006KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 57| 0| 43
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/0700Z 13 35008KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 82| 0| 18
140203/0800Z 14 36008KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 80| 0| 20
140203/0900Z 15 01007KT 32.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 89| 0| 11
140203/1000Z 16 03007KT 32.3F SNOW 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
140203/1100Z 17 05010KT 32.1F SNOW 7:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 9:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50 100| 0| 0
140203/1200Z 18 36007KT 31.9F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 9:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1300Z 19 04006KT 31.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212 10:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0
140203/1400Z 20 04008KT 31.2F SNOW 6:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.187 9:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 100| 0| 0
140203/1500Z 21 03010KT 30.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 9:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08 100| 0| 0
140203/1600Z 22 01010KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0
140203/1700Z 23 01010KT 31.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 8.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0
140203/1800Z 24 36009KT 31.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1900Z 25 36008KT 31.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 8.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.14 100| 0| 0
140203/2000Z 26 01007KT 31.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 8.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15 100| 0| 0

 

One of these models is going to bust horribly.

[Fozz]

All I really want is to get smoked by a band and see some SN++... even if that means only 3", so be it.

[NorthArlington101]

All I really want is a period of SN++... even if that means only 3", so be it.

Only 3"? Different worlds in this forum...

[nj2va]

I hope the RAP is wrong on temps..it has a big warm layer between 700 and 850 mb even at 11 AM.  

[Fozz]

I hope the RAP is wrong on temps..it has a big warm layer between 700 and 850 mb even at 11 AM.  

 

Yeah, it doesn't look good for anyone east of the Blue ridge except far northern MD (not including MBY)

Anyone know how reliable it is wrt temps and precip? I'm still a noob when it comes to short term models

[PhineasC]

Yeah, it doesn't look good for anyone east of the Blue ridge except far northern MD (not including MBY)

Anyone know how reliable it is wrt temps and precip? I'm still a noob when it comes to short term models

I have heard many times that the RAP at range is not to be trusted on temps and can run warm.

[Bob Chill]

Rap is good for precip start and end times and with rates. Midlevels past a few hours? Nah

[nj2va]

Good to know. Thanks for the info.

[olafminesaw]

The last frame shows south of DC getting shafted. Literally. http://www.marylandwx.com/da/sfcmidatlloop.php

[chrisk84]

The last frame shows south of DC getting shafted. Literally. http://www.marylandwx.com/da/sfcmidatlloop.php

Lol, DC is getting crushed... But it's too wet and warm even north of the shaft zone.

[yoda]

21z SREFs still very wet... 1"+ on 24 hr map

0c 850 line just NW of DCA on the means at 12z (7am)... but large color fill spread across the region

2m 0C line sits just NW of DCA (maybe 30 miles or so) at 12z and 15z... that tells me DCA is prob 33

[Jebman]

Been out all day. Are we toast?

You are in the RT 7/RT 9 region with 600 feet of elevation. You might start out as a little rain but you should flip to snow which will become heavy. I'd say about 5 to 10 inches for you    

[yoda]

Also per 21z SREFs - DCA and to the N and W 1"+ QPF in 12 hrs (used 21 hr map which is 18z aka 1pm)... wow

[NorthArlington101]

Also per 21z SREFs - DCA and to the N and W 1"+ QPF in 12 hrs (used 21 hr map which is 18z aka 1pm)... wow

Places where it's cold enough are gonna get slammed.

[DiehardFF]

Yoda,

I am a out of the area poster but did it trend more north and wetter? I cant get to the NCEP website currently.

[clueless]

You are in the RT 7/RT 9 region with 600 feet of elevation. You might start out as a little rain but you should flip to snow which will become heavy. I'd say about 5 to 10 inches for you

I just got back from the city. It was warm. It is still warmish here. I am not do confident about what this system will produce.

I am running this ship as normal. Teenager has homework done.

[usedtobe]

I hope the RAP is wrong on temps..it has a big warm layer between 700 and 850 mb even at 11 AM.  

It usually runs warm at around 850.   If the 00Z nam has it I'd worry, otherwise no.

[mitchnick]

It usually runs warm at around 850.   If the 00Z nam has it I'd worry, otherwise no.

trust me when I say everything about the 0Z NAM will worry me

[olafminesaw]

Northern MD/ southern pa gets crushed.

[nj2va]

850 line is pretty much right over DC at 7AM.  

[yoda]

0c 850 line is right over DCA at at 7 am... maybe even very slightly east

 

Holds same line at 15z

[usedtobe]

12Z sounding for DCA

Date: 12 hour Eta valid 12Z MON 3 FEB 14

Station: KDCA

Latitude: 38.85

Longitude: -77.03

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1011 55 0.9 0.5 97 0.4 0.7 23 11 273.2 273.8 273.3 283.7 3.92

1 1000 143 0.4 0.3 99 0.2 0.4 29 14 273.6 274.2 273.5 284.1 3.90

2 950 554 -0.6 -0.9 98 0.3 -0.7 55 27 276.5 277.2 275.0 286.8 3.76

3 900 988 1.1 0.8 97 0.4 1.0 95 14 282.7 283.5 279.2 295.3 4.50

4 850 1448 1.5 1.3 98 0.3 1.4 163 18 287.7 288.6 282.1 301.8 4.93

5 800 1937 1.3 1.2 99 0.1 1.2 195 32 292.5 293.4 284.4 307.6 5.20

6 750 2457 0.6 0.6 100 0.0 0.6 207 48 297.3 298.2 286.4 313.0 5.34

7 700 3011 -0.3 -0.3 100 0.0 -0.3 216 65 302.2 303.1 288.2 318.3 5.35

8 650 3603 -2.1 -2.1 100 0.0 -2.1 222 76 306.6 307.6 289.4 322.1 5.05

9 600 4236 -4.9 -4.9 100 0.0 -4.8 227 81 310.5 311.3 290.1 324.4 4.44

10 550 4917 -8.3 -8.3 99 0.1 -8.3 230 86 314.3 315.0 290.6 326.2 3.71

11 500 5651 -12.7 -13.3 95 0.6 -12.9 236 84 317.6 318.1 290.7 326.6 2.75

12 450 6446 -18.3 -21.1 79 2.8 -19.1 240 86 320.2 320.5 290.5 325.6 1.58

13 400 7314 -24.8 -30.2 61 5.3 -25.8 242 85 322.7 322.9 290.4 325.5 0.78

14 350 8269 -32.9 -37.8 62 4.9 -33.5 244 82 324.4 324.4 290.5 325.9 0.42

15 300 9333 -41.9 -45.6 67 3.7 -42.2 246 87 326.3 326.3 290.9 327.1 0.22

16 250 10541 -52.0 -55.5 66 3.5 -52.1 240 101 328.7 328.7 291.5 329.1 0.08

17 200 11951 -59.3 -62.8 64 3.5 -59.4 241 115 338.8 338.9 294.1 339.0 0.04

18 150 13764 -59.3 -78.9 6 19.6 -59.5 249 106 367.9 367.9 300.2 367.9 0.01

19 100 16226 -71.0 -82.0 18 11.0 -71.1 255 83 390.5 390.5 303.9 390.6 0.00