Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II

[nj2va]

Good to know. Thanks for the info.

[olafminesaw]

The last frame shows south of DC getting shafted. Literally. http://www.marylandwx.com/da/sfcmidatlloop.php

[chrisk84]

The last frame shows south of DC getting shafted. Literally. http://www.marylandwx.com/da/sfcmidatlloop.php

Lol, DC is getting crushed... But it's too wet and warm even north of the shaft zone.

[yoda]

21z SREFs still very wet... 1"+ on 24 hr map

0c 850 line just NW of DCA on the means at 12z (7am)... but large color fill spread across the region

2m 0C line sits just NW of DCA (maybe 30 miles or so) at 12z and 15z... that tells me DCA is prob 33

[Jebman]

Been out all day. Are we toast?

You are in the RT 7/RT 9 region with 600 feet of elevation. You might start out as a little rain but you should flip to snow which will become heavy. I'd say about 5 to 10 inches for you    

[yoda]

Also per 21z SREFs - DCA and to the N and W 1"+ QPF in 12 hrs (used 21 hr map which is 18z aka 1pm)... wow

[NorthArlington101]

Also per 21z SREFs - DCA and to the N and W 1"+ QPF in 12 hrs (used 21 hr map which is 18z aka 1pm)... wow

Places where it's cold enough are gonna get slammed.

[DiehardFF]

Yoda,

I am a out of the area poster but did it trend more north and wetter? I cant get to the NCEP website currently.

[clueless]

You are in the RT 7/RT 9 region with 600 feet of elevation. You might start out as a little rain but you should flip to snow which will become heavy. I'd say about 5 to 10 inches for you

I just got back from the city. It was warm. It is still warmish here. I am not do confident about what this system will produce.

I am running this ship as normal. Teenager has homework done.

[usedtobe]

I hope the RAP is wrong on temps..it has a big warm layer between 700 and 850 mb even at 11 AM.  

It usually runs warm at around 850.   If the 00Z nam has it I'd worry, otherwise no.

[mitchnick]

It usually runs warm at around 850.   If the 00Z nam has it I'd worry, otherwise no.

trust me when I say everything about the 0Z NAM will worry me

[olafminesaw]

Northern MD/ southern pa gets crushed.

[nj2va]

850 line is pretty much right over DC at 7AM.  

[yoda]

0c 850 line is right over DCA at at 7 am... maybe even very slightly east

 

Holds same line at 15z

[usedtobe]

12Z sounding for DCA

Date: 12 hour Eta valid 12Z MON 3 FEB 14

Station: KDCA

Latitude: 38.85

Longitude: -77.03

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W

mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1011 55 0.9 0.5 97 0.4 0.7 23 11 273.2 273.8 273.3 283.7 3.92

1 1000 143 0.4 0.3 99 0.2 0.4 29 14 273.6 274.2 273.5 284.1 3.90

2 950 554 -0.6 -0.9 98 0.3 -0.7 55 27 276.5 277.2 275.0 286.8 3.76

3 900 988 1.1 0.8 97 0.4 1.0 95 14 282.7 283.5 279.2 295.3 4.50

4 850 1448 1.5 1.3 98 0.3 1.4 163 18 287.7 288.6 282.1 301.8 4.93

5 800 1937 1.3 1.2 99 0.1 1.2 195 32 292.5 293.4 284.4 307.6 5.20

6 750 2457 0.6 0.6 100 0.0 0.6 207 48 297.3 298.2 286.4 313.0 5.34

7 700 3011 -0.3 -0.3 100 0.0 -0.3 216 65 302.2 303.1 288.2 318.3 5.35

8 650 3603 -2.1 -2.1 100 0.0 -2.1 222 76 306.6 307.6 289.4 322.1 5.05

9 600 4236 -4.9 -4.9 100 0.0 -4.8 227 81 310.5 311.3 290.1 324.4 4.44

10 550 4917 -8.3 -8.3 99 0.1 -8.3 230 86 314.3 315.0 290.6 326.2 3.71

11 500 5651 -12.7 -13.3 95 0.6 -12.9 236 84 317.6 318.1 290.7 326.6 2.75

12 450 6446 -18.3 -21.1 79 2.8 -19.1 240 86 320.2 320.5 290.5 325.6 1.58

13 400 7314 -24.8 -30.2 61 5.3 -25.8 242 85 322.7 322.9 290.4 325.5 0.78

14 350 8269 -32.9 -37.8 62 4.9 -33.5 244 82 324.4 324.4 290.5 325.9 0.42

15 300 9333 -41.9 -45.6 67 3.7 -42.2 246 87 326.3 326.3 290.9 327.1 0.22

16 250 10541 -52.0 -55.5 66 3.5 -52.1 240 101 328.7 328.7 291.5 329.1 0.08

17 200 11951 -59.3 -62.8 64 3.5 -59.4 241 115 338.8 338.9 294.1 339.0 0.04

18 150 13764 -59.3 -78.9 6 19.6 -59.5 249 106 367.9 367.9 300.2 367.9 0.01

19 100 16226 -71.0 -82.0 18 11.0 -71.1 255 83 390.5 390.5 303.9 390.6 0.00

[mitchnick]

0c 850 line is right over DCA at at 7 am... maybe even very slightly east

 

Holds same line at 15z

doesn't look like it on this map

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=012&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[mitchnick]

awful for DC

every run is warmer

at 3 hrs, it was already warmer than 18z at 9hrs

[yoda]

What is with the random warm nose at 750?

[84 Hour NAM]

Just have faith

[nj2va]

Yuck, that sounding is awful.  I'm keeping faith...

[yoda]

doesn't look like it on this map

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=012&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

 

It is on the AmWx maps

[mitchnick]

it is still an outlier

yeah, but Wes says the NAM usually runs cold

[usedtobe]

What is with the random warm nose at 750?

Look at the winds at 750 on the sounding below.     230 at 70 knots.....that's not random warming, that's warm advection warming.

Date: 15 hour Eta valid 15Z MON  3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1011    57   0.4  -0.2  96  0.6   0.1  30  12 272.7 273.3 272.7 282.7  3.72  1 1000   143  -0.2                       32  17 273.0                          2  950   552  -0.1  -0.2 100  0.1  -0.2  55  36 277.1 277.7 275.6 288.0  3.97  3  900   985  -0.1  -0.1 100  0.0  -0.1  72  27 281.4 282.1 278.2 293.1  4.21  4  850  1443   0.2   0.2 100  0.0   0.2 122  15 286.4 287.2 281.0 299.3  4.56  5  800  1931   1.6   1.5 100  0.1   1.5 201  29 292.8 293.8 284.7 308.3  5.34  6  750  2453   3.2   2.8  98  0.3   2.9 222  58 300.0 301.1 288.3 318.6  6.26  7  700  3010  -0.2  -0.3 100  0.0  -0.3 230  70 302.2 303.2 288.2 318.4  5.37  8  650  3602  -2.4  -2.5  99  0.1  -2.4 232  70 306.3 307.2 289.1 321.3  4.89  9  600  4233  -5.8  -6.4  95  0.6  -6.0 238  65 309.4 310.2 289.3 321.8  3.95 10  550  4910 -10.1 -11.2  92  1.1 -10.5 243  67 312.1 312.7 289.2 321.6  2.96 11  500  5639 -14.3 -15.7  89  1.4 -14.7 237  73 315.6 316.0 289.7 323.0  2.24 12  450  6430 -19.4 -21.2  86  1.8 -19.8 232  74 318.9 319.2 290.0 324.2  1.57 13  400  7295 -25.6 -27.9  82  2.2 -26.1 229  78 321.7 321.9 290.3 325.1  0.97 14  350  8248 -33.0 -35.9  76  2.8 -33.4 226  79 324.2 324.3 290.6 326.1  0.51 15  300  9312 -42.1 -45.2  71  3.2 -42.3 223  85 326.1 326.1 290.8 326.9  0.22 16  250 10515 -51.9                      226  93 328.9                         17  200 11933 -58.2                      240 106 340.7                         18  150 13759 -58.4                      253  96 369.4                         19  100 16232 -70.2                      250  81 392.0    

[Avdave]

doesn't look like it on this map

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_012_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=012&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

Looks like it is over DC to me

[AmericanWxFreak]

Looks like a pretty nice run for areas north of DC

[usedtobe]

I think DC's chances are similar to Denver's

Me too but DC doesn't have Manning. 

[nj2va]

It is on the AmWx maps

 

And on instantweathermaps and Wx Bell.  Strange.

[WxMan1]

Well, when you have a surface-based warm layer, in addition to an elevated warm layer, you get rain. I know, shocking.. ;-)

12Z sounding for DCA

Date: 12 hour Eta valid 12Z MON  3 FEB 14
Station: KDCA
Latitude:   38.85
Longitude: -77.03
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SFC 1011    55   0.9   0.5  97  0.4   0.7  23  11 273.2 273.8 273.3 283.7  3.92
  1 1000   143   0.4   0.3  99  0.2   0.4  29  14 273.6 274.2 273.5 284.1  3.90
  2  950   554  -0.6  -0.9  98  0.3  -0.7  55  27 276.5 277.2 275.0 286.8  3.76
  3  900   988   1.1   0.8  97  0.4   1.0  95  14 282.7 283.5 279.2 295.3  4.50
  4  850  1448   1.5   1.3  98  0.3   1.4 163  18 287.7 288.6 282.1 301.8  4.93
  5  800  1937   1.3   1.2  99  0.1   1.2 195  32 292.5 293.4 284.4 307.6  5.20
  6  750  2457   0.6   0.6 100  0.0   0.6 207  48 297.3 298.2 286.4 313.0  5.34
  7  700  3011  -0.3  -0.3 100  0.0  -0.3 216  65 302.2 303.1 288.2 318.3  5.35
  8  650  3603  -2.1  -2.1 100  0.0  -2.1 222  76 306.6 307.6 289.4 322.1  5.05
  9  600  4236  -4.9  -4.9 100  0.0  -4.8 227  81 310.5 311.3 290.1 324.4  4.44
 10  550  4917  -8.3  -8.3  99  0.1  -8.3 230  86 314.3 315.0 290.6 326.2  3.71
 11  500  5651 -12.7 -13.3  95  0.6 -12.9 236  84 317.6 318.1 290.7 326.6  2.75
 12  450  6446 -18.3 -21.1  79  2.8 -19.1 240  86 320.2 320.5 290.5 325.6  1.58
 13  400  7314 -24.8 -30.2  61  5.3 -25.8 242  85 322.7 322.9 290.4 325.5  0.78
 14  350  8269 -32.9 -37.8  62  4.9 -33.5 244  82 324.4 324.4 290.5 325.9  0.42
 15  300  9333 -41.9 -45.6  67  3.7 -42.2 246  87 326.3 326.3 290.9 327.1  0.22
 16  250 10541 -52.0 -55.5  66  3.5 -52.1 240 101 328.7 328.7 291.5 329.1  0.08
 17  200 11951 -59.3 -62.8  64  3.5 -59.4 241 115 338.8 338.9 294.1 339.0  0.04
 18  150 13764 -59.3 -78.9   6 19.6 -59.5 249 106 367.9 367.9 300.2 367.9  0.01
 19  100 16226 -71.0 -82.0  18 11.0 -71.1 255  83 390.5 390.5 303.9 390.6  0.00

[mitchnick]

Looks like it is over DC to me

zoom in, it's not

but it doesn't much matter w/the sounding Wes posted as it's warmer higher up

[usedtobe]

yeah, but Wes says the NAM usually runs cold

That' s mostly at the surface. I'm not sure it is aloft but the 70 knot winds at 230 degrees suggest some warming ought to take place between 12 and 15Z.