Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 IMHO, 0 to 0.5 won't really matter much if there are there are good rates and its coming down hard... Unless it's too cold to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 for you, I guess I would agree, but all the models since last night's runs have warmed a degree or 2 for everyone so now I feel like I'm out of the game (verbatim model-wise) Lol. I forgot you're in the hills of Lithicum. Stay strong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It is but still has temps slightly above freezing at 18Z at around 800 mb according to the Plymouth text product at 18Z. I sure wouldn't change a forecast based on it but am sure someone here will. The surface at its coldest is about 33.6. it now matches the euro and the canadian....if it's ripping ++, I wouldnt think a subtle warm nose would matter, esp since it would probably be gone by 13z...of course, I tend to agree with you that the models may all be too cold...so parsing them doesnt really matter...I still like the warm nose in the mid levels, than our usual 950mb temp of 7 degrees, but that is probably wishful/weenie thinking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Case in point.. not sure how much it matters but GFS isn't even close at initialization with max temps around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Not saying we will get anything...but the NAM is now unsurprisingly on its own I'm not punting yet. Yeah it's warm, yeah it's super marginal, blah blah blah but sometimes these marginal situations work out. Either way it's going to be an interesting weather event to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm not punting yet. Yeah it's warm, yeah it's super marginal, blah blah blah but sometimes these marginal situations work out. Either way it's going to be an interesting weather event to watch unfold. Agreed. At least this time I'm tampering my expectations based on the last two busts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Case in point.. not sure how much it matters but GFS isn't even close at initialization with max temps around here. gfs_t2max_washdc_3.png Actually right on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Get your broom ready so you can take flight tomorrow in the snow.Not sure why I'm getting this as a response but ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Case in point.. not sure how much it matters but GFS isn't even close at initialization with max temps around here. gfs_t2max_washdc_3.png Looks good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks good hereObviously I wasn't talking about you guys since you look way better than this area. No offense but I don't even look up there anymore unless someone asks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Case in point.. not sure how much it matters but GFS isn't even close at initialization with max temps around here. gfs_t2max_washdc_3.png Looks about perfect IMBY maybe 1 degree low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Obviously I wasn't talking about you guys since you look way better than this area. No offense but I don't even look up there anymore unless someone asks. All good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks about perfect IMBY maybe 1 degree low.Thanks. Next time I'll put a note specially for people way north not to worry. Just like you guys tell us 3 days out for a marginal event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At least I got a kind response lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dukeblue219 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks about perfect IMBY maybe 1 degree low. Well Im still at 59 degrees in silver spring (and no sun obviously), so that map is about 6 degrees cool for me. May not mean much, but not encouraging obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At least I got a kind response lolI thought I already amended it enough to indicate I was talking locally where is is pretty far off. I don't think you have all that much to worry about or at least more than previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Obviously I wasn't talking about you guys since you look way better than this area. No offense but I don't even look up there anymore unless someone asks. Offense taken . Why would you care about someone 60 miles from your backyard. I could care less about Harrisburg. I have no clue if they are expecting 6 flurries or 6' tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks. Next time I'll put a note specially for people way north not to worry. Just like you guys tell us 3 days out for a marginal event. That would be much appreciated . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well Im still at 59 degrees in silver spring (and no sun obviously), so that map is about 6 degrees cool for me. May not mean much, but not encouraging obviously. Like we always talk about here snow is all about IMBY, who cares what some dude 20 or 30 miles from you gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Offense taken . Why would you care about someone 60 miles from your backyard. I could care less about Harrisburg. I have no clue if they are expecting 6 flurries or 6' tomorrow.If you're in the direction weather comes from you matter but otherwise not so much. This one could be ugly as the usual gradient could be supercharged. I will not be too excited when you report 8" and I have some slush on my grass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I dont remember too many situations when we got .20/hr snow recently....(since 1/26) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm taking the under on the crazier 6 hr panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 front dropped through here in the last hour http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Been out all day. Are we toast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Been out all day. Are we toast? We. lol. We and us. Funniest words on this forum. Cracks me up every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well. I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well. even if you say it 100 more times, you won't feel better, trust me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well. I'll post a deck pic for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Been out all day. Are we toast? 50 Miles N/W of DC, no! Could be a moderate snowstorm. Anywhere else, mix/rain/sloppy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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