PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS much better up north Warm at the surface, even for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 we need a shift of a few degrees come 0Z or it's close but no cigar for I95 peeps Balt and south Dude, it's been over for us since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 we need a shift of a few degrees come 0Z or it's close but no cigar for I95 peeps Balt and south The models have all been close to each other all day. They can't really resolve 32.5 versus 31.5 at any range. This will come down to a wing and a prayer like all marginal events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Warm at the surface, even for you. Mmm, you sure? Looks like I'm at or below by 9z or so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well, fans of "just give me the precip and work temps out later" are getting their wish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dude, it's been over for us since yesterday. for you, I guess I would agree, but all the models since last night's runs have warmed a degree or 2 for everyone so now I feel like I'm out of the game (verbatim model-wise) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Credit wusa and Howard Bernstein image.jpg Thats only thru 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just living in reality Dave...would hate to think I'm living in some fantasy snarky world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrDownburstKP Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm skeptical: The latest NAM and RAP model runs place the 5400m 1000-500mb thickness line too far N-W over PA by 12Z tomorrow, with the heaviest precip over the Blue Ridge of MD/VA/WV. This could be indicating a delay in the rain-show change-over in N-Central MD and reduce the total snow accumulation. Should be interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The temp trends near the surface and 850mb look good, being colder than the 12Z run up to about 15Z tomorrow, then the trend seems to reverse and temps go higher than the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 To sum up, everything looks awful if you want to see snow. I think we have the message by now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For DC, I am expecting a brief period of heavy snow, maybe accumulation on the grass...up to 1"...still quite a bit of spread among the models with the euro/canadian the best solutions....GFS is the worst, primarily because it ends so quickly... The 18Z nam above 850 loos pretty horrendous for us. I don't think I see any accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sticking with earlier numbers DCA: .7 IAD: 1.7 BWI: 1.9 HGR: 6.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Gfs says wet snow in silver spring at 7am according to sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 18Z nam above 850 loos pretty horrendous for us. I don't think I see any accumulations. It does but not sure it has support for that huge warm nose...I dont really care for the NAM at all as you know...though It is usually too cold as opposed to too warm in these situations...anyway looks like the GFS has the entire column below freezing at 12z , with 33 or so at the surface...probably wrong but huge shift...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 127 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 VALID FEB 2/1200 UTC THRU FEB 6/0000 UTC ...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR INGEST... ============================================== 12Z FINAL MODEL EVALUATION AND PREFERENCES ============================================== NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DON'T APPEAR TO SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THEIR LARGE SCALE OUTPUT. ============================================== ***SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE TRACKING FROM SOUTHWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC SUN-MON*** PREFERENCE: NAM/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE WITH MASS FIELDS AND BELOW AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE PRESSURE PATTERN WITH THIS SYSTEM, WHILE THE DETAILS CONCERNING QPF AND ESPECIALLY THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE REMAIN, MAKING FOR A RELATIVELY CHALLENGING WINTER WEATHER FORECAST FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE 12Z NAM HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY FARTHER TO THE NORTHWEST WITH THE SURFACE LOW TRACK, AND THIS ALSO HOLDS TRUE FOR THE 12Z GFS. THERE WAS NO NOTICEABLE TREND WITH THE 500MB PATTERN. COMPARING THESE TO THE OTHER OPERATIONAL MODELS, THE CMC CONTINUES TO BE A SLIGHT OUTLIER HAVING THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND SURFACE LOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER, AND THE 12Z GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE SURFACE LOW, WHILE THE 12Z ECMWF IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW WE WILL FAVOR A NAM/UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LATEST QPFPFD AND QPFHSD DISCUSS THE QPF AND WINTER WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 All things considered the gfs soundings look pretty Good from 7am on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like by 18HR I am safely all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 surprised nobody is talking about the 18z GFS which, while probably wrong, is way colder than its previous solutions.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It does but not sure it has support for that huge warm nose...I dont really care for the NAM at all as you know...though It is usually too cold as opposed to too warm in these situations...anyway looks like the GFS has the entire column below freezing at 12z , with 33 or so at the surface...probably wrong but huge shift...lol Its just about a snow sounding at 12z Really wet snow in DCA by 8am would look like per 18z GFS It doesn't have the goofy +3C at 700mb that teh 18z NAM had... I tossed that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS at 12z gfs18z.png If that sounding were true and the heavy rates materialize we'll be accumulating even in the district even if it was 55 degrees 12 hours earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like by 18HR I am safely all snow. Thought it was warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thought it was warm? Get your broom ready so you can take flight tomorrow in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 surprised nobody is talking about the 18z GFS which, while probably wrong, is way colder than its previous solutions.. It is but still has temps slightly above freezing at 18Z at around 800 mb according to the Plymouth text product at 18Z. I sure wouldn't change a forecast based on it but am sure someone here will. The surface at its coldest is about 33.6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't hate this storm from what I can see..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I hope it snows everywhere except Cape May, NJ. I hope it never ever snows there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thought it was warm? Up by Westminster is a marginal snow sounding at 9z and def safely snow with surface below freezing at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If that sounding were true and the heavy rates materialize we'll be accumulating even in the district even if it was 55 degrees 12 hours earlier. Not saying we will get anything...but the NAM is now unsurprisingly on its own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It is but still has temps slightly above freezing at 18Z at around 800 mb according to the Plymouth text product at 18Z. I sure wouldn't change a forecast based on it but am sure someone here will. The surface at its coldest is about 33.6. IMHO, 0C to 0.5C at that level won't really matter much if there are there are good rates and its coming down hard... I will defer to you with your knowledge though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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