Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II

[dukeblue219]

Looks about perfect IMBY maybe 1 degree low.

Well Im still at 59 degrees in silver spring (and no sun obviously), so that map is about 6 degrees cool for me. May not mean much, but not encouraging obviously.

[Ian]

At least I got a kind response lol

I thought I already amended it enough to indicate I was talking locally where is is pretty far off. I don't think you have all that much to worry about or at least more than previously.

[ravensrule]

Obviously I wasn't talking about you guys since you look way better than this area. No offense but I don't even look up there anymore unless someone asks.

Offense taken . Why would you care about someone 60 miles from your backyard. I could care less about Harrisburg. I have no clue if they are expecting 6 flurries or 6' tomorrow.

[ravensrule]

Thanks. Next time I'll put a note specially for people way north not to worry. Just like you guys tell us 3 days out for a marginal event.

That would be much appreciated .

[ravensrule]

Well Im still at 59 degrees in silver spring (and no sun obviously), so that map is about 6 degrees cool for me. May not mean much, but not encouraging obviously.

Like we always talk about here snow is all about IMBY, who cares what some dude 20 or 30 miles from you gets.

[Ian]

Offense taken . Why would you care about someone 60 miles from your backyard. I could care less about Harrisburg. I have no clue if they are expecting 6 flurries or 6' tomorrow.

If you're in the direction weather comes from you matter but otherwise not so much. This one could be ugly as the usual gradient could be supercharged. I will not be too excited when you report 8" and I have some slush on my grass.

[Ian]

I'm taking the under on the crazier 6 hr panels.

[mitchnick]

front dropped through here in the last hour

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBWI.html

[clueless]

Been out all day. Are we toast?

[snow.]

I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well.

[snow.]

I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well.

[snow.]

Been out all day. Are we toast?

We. lol. We and us. Funniest words on this forum. Cracks me up every time

[mitchnick]

I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well.

 

 

I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well.

even if you say it 100 more times, you won't feel better, trust me

[mappy]

I don't care about MBY. As long as someone in the region does well it is as if I am doing well.

I'll post a deck pic for you

[NorthArlington101]

Been out all day. Are we toast?

50 Miles N/W of DC, no! Could be a moderate snowstorm.

Anywhere else, mix/rain/sloppy inch.

[ravensrule]

If you're in the direction weather comes from you matter but otherwise not so much. This one could be ugly as the usual gradient could be supercharged. I will not be too excited when you report 8" and I have some slush on my grass.

Lmao, i am just not feeling more than 3-4" for me at best with this. I think Sparky and Mappy will do very well though. Going to watch the SB, someone come find me if the NAM goes haywire.

[BTRWx]

For weenies only http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/gfs/current/KDCA/prec.png

[NorthArlington101]

For weenies only http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/gfs/current/KDCA/prec.png

hugs and runs

[MDstorm]

Lmao, i am just not feeling more than 3-4" for me at best with this. I think Sparky and Mappy will do very well though. Going to watch the SB, someone come find me if the NAM goes haywire.

The SB obviously won't be as good as last year. At least there is some snow to look forward to.

MDstorm

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

For weenies only http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/gfs/current/KDCA/prec.png

[dallen7908]

What a disconnect between americanwx posters, NWS advisories, and point-and-click.

 

Point-and-click now shows 1-3" for much of northern PG county. 

[clskinsfan]

18Z GFS: What Storm?

 

DCA:

140203/0600Z 12 03008KT 40.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/0900Z 15 03009KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 01011KT 34.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 29| 24| 47
140203/1500Z 21 03009KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.322 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 0| 0|100
140203/1800Z 24 01011KT 33.9F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 25| 52| 23

 

IAD:

140203/0600Z 12 02008KT 38.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/0900Z 15 04008KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 36008KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.436 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 72| 0| 28
140203/1500Z 21 02009KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 84| 0| 16
140203/1800Z 24 36009KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 81| 0| 19

 

BWI:

140203/0900Z 15 03011KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 02012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.372 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 63| 0| 37
140203/1500Z 21 01009KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.304 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 64| 0| 36
140203/1800Z 24 01012KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 78| 0| 22

 

MRB:

140203/0600Z 12 36008KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/0900Z 15 03008KT 32.8F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.111 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.14 36| 52| 12
140203/1200Z 18 06004KT 34.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.555 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.69 20| 61| 18
140203/1500Z 21 03009KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 10:1| 1.4|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0
140203/1800Z 24 36008KT 31.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 10:1| 1.7|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.85 100| 0| 0

[mitchnick]

18Z GFS: What Storm?

 

DCA:

140203/0600Z 12 03008KT 40.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.010 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140203/0900Z 15 03009KT 36.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 0| 0|100

140203/1200Z 18 01011KT 34.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.343 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.42 29| 24| 47

140203/1500Z 21 03009KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.322 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.74 0| 0|100

140203/1800Z 24 01011KT 33.9F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.117 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 25| 52| 23

 

IAD:

140203/0600Z 12 02008KT 38.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140203/0900Z 15 04008KT 35.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.084 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100

140203/1200Z 18 36008KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.436 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.53 72| 0| 28

140203/1500Z 21 02009KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.213 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.75 84| 0| 16

140203/1800Z 24 36009KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.080 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.83 81| 0| 19

 

BWI:

140203/0900Z 15 03011KT 35.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.042 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100

140203/1200Z 18 02012KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.372 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.41 63| 0| 37

140203/1500Z 21 01009KT 33.2F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.304 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 64| 0| 36

140203/1800Z 24 01012KT 32.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.091 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 78| 0| 22

 

MRB:

140203/0600Z 12 36008KT 35.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

140203/0900Z 15 03008KT 32.8F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.111 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.14 36| 52| 12

140203/1200Z 18 06004KT 34.4F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.555 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.69 20| 61| 18

140203/1500Z 21 03009KT 30.6F SNOW 10:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.133 10:1| 1.4|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.83 100| 0| 0

140203/1800Z 24 36008KT 31.5F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.027 10:1| 1.7|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.85 100| 0| 0

yet, if you look at the soundings at BWI, it's all snow at 7AM and beyond

there's a real variance between the ncep maps, soundings generated by ncep and Bufkit

[clskinsfan]

NAM:

 

DCA:

140203/0800Z 14 01008KT 40.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100
140203/0900Z 15 02009KT 38.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.040 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 0| 0|100
140203/1000Z 16 02010KT 37.5F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.111 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.15 0| 0|100
140203/1100Z 17 05011KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.127 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 06011KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.057 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1300Z 19 01011KT 33.9F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.200 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.54 48| 25| 27
140203/1400Z 20 02011KT 32.6F SNRAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.124 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.66 22| 56| 22
140203/1500Z 21 04010KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.196 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.86 0| 0|100
140203/1600Z 22 02010KT 32.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.93 0| 0|100
140203/1700Z 23 01010KT 32.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.97 0| 0|100
140203/1800Z 24 36010KT 32.6F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 0:1| 0.0|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 0.99 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1900Z 25 35011KT 32.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 7:1| 0.1|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 1.01 90| 0| 10
140203/2000Z 26 36011KT 32.4F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.018 8:1| 0.3|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 1.02 90| 0| 10
140203/2100Z 27 01010KT 33.0F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 8:1| 0.3|| 0.19|| 0.00|| 1.03 0| 0|100

 

IAD:

140203/0800Z 14 36009KT 36.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.02 0| 0|100
140203/0900Z 15 36010KT 36.0F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.081 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 0| 0|100
140203/1000Z 16 02010KT 35.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.131 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 0| 0|100
140203/1100Z 17 05011KT 34.2F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.34 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 03009KT 33.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.059 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1300Z 19 01010KT 32.3F SNOW 11:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.264 11:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0
140203/1400Z 20 02010KT 31.7F SNPL 7:1| 1.0|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.141 9:1| 3.8|| 0.13|| 0.00|| 0.80 55| 45| 0
140203/1500Z 21 02010KT 31.9F FZRA 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.183 9:1| 3.8|| 0.13|| 0.19|| 0.98 0| 0|100
140203/1600Z 22 01009KT 31.9F PL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.16|| 0.00|| 0.082 9:1| 3.8|| 0.29|| 0.19|| 1.06 4| 96| 0
140203/1700Z 23 36010KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.03|| 0.028 9:1| 3.8|| 0.29|| 0.22|| 1.09 0| 0|100
140203/1800Z 24 35011KT 31.7F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.01|| 0.013 9:1| 3.8|| 0.29|| 0.24|| 1.10 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1900Z 25 35011KT 31.7F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 9:1| 3.9|| 0.29|| 0.24|| 1.12 100| 0| 0
140203/2000Z 26 36010KT 31.7F SNOW 10:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 4.1|| 0.29|| 0.24|| 1.13 100| 0| 0
140203/2100Z 27 36009KT 32.1F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.004 9:1| 4.1|| 0.29|| 0.24|| 1.14 0| 0|100

 

BWI:

140203/0800Z 14 02009KT 39.6F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.003 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00 0| 0|100
140203/0900Z 15 03010KT 37.8F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100
140203/1000Z 16 02010KT 35.9F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.11 0| 0|100
140203/1100Z 17 04011KT 34.4F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.120 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.23 0| 0|100
140203/1200Z 18 05011KT 33.7F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.053 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.28 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1300Z 19 36010KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 71| 0| 29
140203/1400Z 20 02009KT 32.3F SNPL 10:1| 1.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.102 10:1| 1.0|| 0.03|| 0.00|| 0.53 84| 10| 6
140203/1500Z 21 03011KT 32.1F SNZRPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.22|| 0.00|| 0.139 10:1| 1.0|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.67 34| 45| 22
140203/1600Z 22 02010KT 32.3F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.114 10:1| 1.0|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.79 0| 0|100
140203/1700Z 23 01010KT 32.1F SNPL 3:1| 0.2|| 0.06|| 0.00|| 0.068 7:1| 1.2|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.85 54| 46| 0
140203/1800Z 24 01011KT 32.3F FZDZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 7:1| 1.2|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.87 0| 0|100
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1900Z 25 36011KT 32.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 7:1| 1.4|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.90 100| 0| 0
140203/2000Z 26 36010KT 32.3F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 8:1| 1.6|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.91 100| 0| 0
140203/2100Z 27 01009KT 32.3F SNOW 8:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 8:1| 1.7|| 0.31|| 0.00|| 0.92 100| 0| 0

 

MRB:

140203/0400Z 10 33005KT 34.1F RAIN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 0| 0|100
140203/0500Z 11 34006KT 33.9F RAPL 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 5| 24| 71
140203/0600Z 12 33006KT 33.3F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.029 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.06 57| 0| 43
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/0700Z 13 35008KT 32.4F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.056 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.12 82| 0| 18
140203/0800Z 14 36008KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.19 80| 0| 20
140203/0900Z 15 01007KT 32.4F SNOW 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.072 8:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.26 89| 0| 11
140203/1000Z 16 03007KT 32.3F SNOW 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.099 10:1| 1.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.36 100| 0| 0
140203/1100Z 17 05010KT 32.1F SNOW 7:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.141 9:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.50 100| 0| 0
140203/1200Z 18 36007KT 31.9F SNOW 10:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 9:1| 3.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.61 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1300Z 19 04006KT 31.5F SNOW 11:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212 10:1| 6.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.82 100| 0| 0
140203/1400Z 20 04008KT 31.2F SNOW 6:1| 1.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.187 9:1| 7.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.01 100| 0| 0
140203/1500Z 21 03010KT 30.8F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.069 9:1| 7.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.08 100| 0| 0
140203/1600Z 22 01010KT 31.0F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 9:1| 7.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.10 100| 0| 0
140203/1700Z 23 01010KT 31.2F SNOW 8:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 8.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.11 100| 0| 0
140203/1800Z 24 36009KT 31.4F SNOW 15:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 9:1| 8.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.13 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
140203/1900Z 25 36008KT 31.5F SNOW 20:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 9:1| 8.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.14 100| 0| 0
140203/2000Z 26 01007KT 31.4F SNOW 7:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.006 9:1| 8.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15 100| 0| 0

 

One of these models is going to bust horribly.

[Fozz]

All I really want is to get smoked by a band and see some SN++... even if that means only 3", so be it.

[NorthArlington101]

All I really want is a period of SN++... even if that means only 3", so be it.

Only 3"? Different worlds in this forum...

[nj2va]

I hope the RAP is wrong on temps..it has a big warm layer between 700 and 850 mb even at 11 AM.  

[Fozz]

I hope the RAP is wrong on temps..it has a big warm layer between 700 and 850 mb even at 11 AM.  

 

Yeah, it doesn't look good for anyone east of the Blue ridge except far northern MD (not including MBY)

Anyone know how reliable it is wrt temps and precip? I'm still a noob when it comes to short term models

[PhineasC]

Yeah, it doesn't look good for anyone east of the Blue ridge except far northern MD (not including MBY)

Anyone know how reliable it is wrt temps and precip? I'm still a noob when it comes to short term models

I have heard many times that the RAP at range is not to be trusted on temps and can run warm.

[Bob Chill]

Rap is good for precip start and end times and with rates. Midlevels past a few hours? Nah