wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Keep talking dirty Best lift is going to be right along that terrain rib from Fredrick, Westminster, Manchester, Shrewsbury, Quarryville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Best lift is going to be right along that terrain rib from Fredrick, Westminster, Manchester, Shrewsbury, Quarryville. Probably gonna miss me just to my north then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Our best events are the ones LWX lowballs. No WWA means we are getting 5" at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winter weather advisory....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Our best events are the ones LWX lowballs. No WWA means we are getting 5" at BWI. You are not kidding. Every time we get a WSW we get screwed when we get an advisory we usually overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 000 FXUS61 KLWX 022042 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 342 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... CDFNT INVOF I-95 AT 19Z. TEMPS SE OF FNT HV SPIKED...INTO THE MID-UPR 60S. EVIDENTLY...THE SFC INVSN HAS MIXED OUT IN CENTRL VA. MEANWHILE...TEMPS W OF THE APLCNS IN THE 40S. LTST 12Z GDNC...SPCLY NAM12...HAS INITIALIZED TOO COLD. THAT WL GREATLY IMPACT PTYPE FCSTS TNGT-TMRW. IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT. LOPRES INVOF THE GLFMEX CST WL TRACK NEWD TNGT ALONG THE FNT AND PASS OFF THE NC CST TMRW. THE PATH OF THE H8 LOW DISPLACED N OF THE SFC FEATURE. THAT WL PREVENT MUCH COLD AIR FM DRAINING SWD TIL THE MSTR LEAVES...NOT TO MENTION THE WARM START THAT EVERYBODY WL GET OFF TO. SO...XPCT PCPN TO START AS RA JUST ABT EVERYWHERE...XCPT PERHAPS THE ALLEGHENY FNT. BUT...AN UPR JET MAX WL BE ARND TO PROVIDE ADDED LIFT OVNGT...MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME TIME FRAME AS PVA ARRIVES. CWFA WL BE IN LFQ. SUBSEQUENTLY SUSPECT THERE WL BE DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS AND ACRS NRN MD...TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNW. TEMPS WL BE MARGINAL S OF THERE...AND XPCT A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT. FURTHER...THERES LTL REASON TO BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WL CHG MUCH DURING THE DAY ON MON...SO PTYPE WL REMAIN SIMLR THRUT THE EVENT. LIKE PRVS FCST CYCLES...IT/S LOOKING LIKE THE NRN CWFA WL BE THE OVERLAP BTWN COLD AIR AND QPF. THE RA/SN LINE WL BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACRS METRO BALT/DC...NRN FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRL VLY. THERE/S STILL WIGGLE ROOM IN EXACTLY WHERE THAT WL WIND UP. BUT BASED ON 12Z GDNC/ANALYSIS...THERE IS A SUFFICIENT OVERLAP TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WRNG. THE STRIPE OF ADVY ADJACENT TO THAT WL BE THIN...FM BALT CITY...ACRS NWRN BURBS OF DC...TO CENTRL SHEN VLY. FOR LOUDOUN AND MONTGOMERY CO SPECIFICALLY...SOLNS CUD YIELD JUST RA TO WRNG SNW W/IN THE CNTY ALONE. SINCE TEMPS WL BE BARELY BLO FRZG...AND IN SOME CASES JUST ABV... RATIOS MAY BE LESS THAN A 10-1. BUT...QPF JUICY /ARND AN IN INCH LIQ/...SO SNW TTLS IN THE PTMC HIGHLNDS AND CATOCTINS MAY BE ARND 6-9 INCHES. ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS THE CST /ELY-MID AFTN/...THE CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST. BY THAT PT...THE BULK OF THE MSTR WL BE OUT OF HERE. MAY EVEN HV SOME CLRG IN THE FAR NW PRIOR TO SUNSET. Where have I heard that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think you and I might be sitting in a good spot for this one. Will be interesting to see where the best banding sets up. I know looking at the 300 mb, a good portion of Central MD up to York/Lancaster will sit right between the split jet maxima. Someone is going to get pasted tomorrow with 6-10" of snow between that zone Is your area ever not sitting in a good spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winter weather advisory....meh Im happy with 2-4 maybe 5" here. It all adds up in the end. Snow is snow. Maybe the death band will do something like Warrenton-Leesburg-Frederick-Taneystown-York, PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is really disappointing...what a disaster. 2-5" what a waste of my time ...next!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is really disappointing...what a disaster. 2-5" what a waste of my time ...next!! Cancel winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think we all know Leesburg will get the usual mega band. People make forecasting snow around here harder than it needs to be by ignoring consistent seasonal patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is your area ever not sitting in a good spot? Ever since I've been here, this is the 1st year with a snow event of greater than 1". It just so happens this year from York east has been in the sweet spot. Can't help that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 leesburg 04, on 02 Feb 2014 - 4:06 PM, said:leesburg 04, on 02 Feb 2014 - 4:06 PM, said:This is really disappointing...what a disaster. 2-5" what a waste of my time ...next!! I'd love to have that.. let's trade. Haven't had a storm with over 2" yet this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Cancel winter? Just living in reality Dave...would hate to think I'm living in some fantasy snarky world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just living in reality Dave...would hate to think I'm living in some fantasy snarky world lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Where have I heard that one I dunno. Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think jyo will get at least 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The rpm model from wusa9 has less than 1" for leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I dunno. Wes? Wes, HM the list goes on. You guys at CWG been doing great. Keep up good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS better. Def colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The rpm model from wusa9 has less than 1" for leesburg Thoughts and prayers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thoughts and prayers It has been a rough winter out here in my fantasy world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is rpm the same model mike masco uses to bust with ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM is slower with the 850 line IMBY and it pretty much straddles Arl/Alex/DC from 10A to 1P. Definitely a bit warmer than the NAM. Also cut back a bit on precip totals from 12z here. Overall worse than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS says rates are still the only prayer DC has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS much better up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 RGEM is slower with the 850 line IMBY and it pretty much straddles Arl/Alex/DC from 10A to 1P. Definitely a bit warmer than the NAM. Also cut back a bit on precip totals from 12z here. Worse than 12z overall I'd say. 12Z wasn't that good so not sure why some were hugging it. We used to always toss RGEM/GGEM temps but that seems to have changed this winter; I thought they had known biases in that regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Is rpm the same model mike masco uses to bust with ?Credit wusa and Howard Bernstein Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 we need a shift of a few degrees come 0Z or it's close but no cigar for I95 peeps Balt and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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