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Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II


DDweatherman

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leesburg 04, on 02 Feb 2014 - 4:06 PM, said:leesburg 04, on 02 Feb 2014 - 4:06 PM, said:

This is really disappointing...what a disaster. 2-5" what a waste of my time ...next!!

 

I'd love to have that.. let's trade. Haven't had a storm with over 2" yet this season!

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RGEM is slower with the 850 line IMBY and it pretty much straddles Arl/Alex/DC from 10A to 1P.  Definitely a bit warmer than the NAM.  Also cut back a bit on precip totals from 12z here.  Worse than 12z overall I'd say.

12Z wasn't that good so not sure why some were hugging it. We used to always toss RGEM/GGEM temps but that seems to have changed this winter; I thought they had known biases in that regard.

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I'm skeptical: The latest NAM and RAP model runs place the 5400m 1000-500mb thickness line too far N-W over PA by 12Z tomorrow, with the heaviest precip over the Blue Ridge of MD/VA/WV.

NAM Radar/1000-500mb Thickness overlay valid 02/03/14 at 1200 UTC (0700 EST)

 

This could be indicating a delay in the rain-show change-over in N-Central MD and reduce the total snow accumulation. Should be interesting!

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