Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For DC, I am expecting a brief period of heavy snow, maybe accumulation on the grass...up to 1"...still quite a bit of spread among the models with the euro/canadian the best solutions....GFS is the worst, primarily because it ends so quickly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It does seem like the ensembles have been surprisingly useful even after when past experience says go with the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At what point do we stop paying for 09-10? It's like being sentenced to prison for robbing the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 4K Nam is purty for those just outside the Baltimore beltway and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 thanks for the info HM you guys are gunna' get clocked...enjoy No problem. I've lost count on how many events we've gotten this year. But I want to see my DC brethren get something for a change. I made a similar comment yesterday about the washed-out wave look from a few days ago. Most of us figured we'd see a north trend of some sort, but it's gone a little too far north for many of us, and the amount of precip that it has now is just insane. Yeah...during the medium range, I remember discussing these things with you guys...that my biggest worry was it shifting too far north/warm over the silly GFS solutions. This was a classic setup where the ECMWF would be superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hires NAM at 7AM tomorrow. I'm just barely below 0 at 850. Probably a warm nose somewhere else but at least 850s are cooperating. FWIW, this is 3 hours quicker than 12z was with getting me below 0 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 4K Nam is purty for those just outside the Baltimore beltway and north. Sold....wrap it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No problem. I've lost count on how many events we've gotten this year. But I want to see my DC brethren get something for a change. Yeah...during the medium range, I remember discussing these things with you guys...that my biggest worry was it shifting too far north/warm over the silly GFS solutions. This was a classic setup where the ECMWF would be superior. Well the Euro has been in a pretty window in terms of temps too for the last 4 or 5 runs whereas the NAM and GFS have been jumping more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At what point do we stop paying for 09-10? It's like being sentenced to prison for robbing the bank. 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2023 No, 2016-2017 when we get the next 7 year epic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well the Euro has been in a pretty window in terms of temps too for the last 4 or 5 runs whereas the NAM and GFS have been jumping more. As others have already suggested, if you get into this deform band, it will focus those rates and anyone in that will pile quickly (even if it is low ratio/ heavy wet snow). The synoptic lift is impressive throughout the area, but these convergence zones are always what I look for to bias a region's potential low or high. DC is so close to the zone...obviously the northern suburbs have been properly diagnosed by all outfits. If this thing comes through, all warm layers will be eliminated and it will snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 4K Nam is purty for those just outside the Baltimore beltway and north. Exactly how much snow does the latest NAM show for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 9 a.m. looks good for all except DC proper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 4K Nam is purty for those just outside the Baltimore beltway and north. Exactly how much snow does the latest NAM show for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At what point do we stop paying for 09-10? It's like being sentenced to prison for robbing the bank. Our climatology is generally a great winter every six or so years with not a whole lot in between. This winter has been good for northern MD over to Philly; not so much for DC. 2010 2003 1996 1993 (only N&W of the cities) 1987 1983 1979 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't think I've seen 45dbz pop up on the 4kmNAM while Ptype as Snow. That's just nuts, 2-3"/hr rates there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've punted for DC... It really works out better for DC if you can wait to punt until the middle of storm, at which point the snow immediately improves markedly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't think I've seen 45dbz pop up on the 4kmNAM while Ptype as Snow. That's just nuts, 2-3"/hr rates there. By there I assume you mean NW Maryland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 9 a.m. looks good for all except DC proper. Not all that bad for dc, had us right on the snow/mix line. Id be happy with heavy sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Exactly how much snow does the latest NAM show for us? 3-6 heavy wet. Maybe 8" if the stars align. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Exactly how much snow does the latest NAM show for us? How do i do that?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 By there I assume you mean NW Maryland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't think I've seen 45dbz pop up on the 4kmNAM while Ptype as Snow. That's just nuts, 2-3"/hr rates there. I think you and I might be sitting in a good spot for this one. Will be interesting to see where the best banding sets up. I know looking at the 300 mb, a good portion of Central MD up to York/Lancaster will sit right between the split jet maxima. Someone is going to get pasted tomorrow with 6-10" of snow between that zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 HiRes NAM is actually pretty good here. If we locked this up now, I'd be very happy. However, considering the NAM was too cold in the other marginal events, I'm not confident. Expectations are for heavy snow to be falling for a few hours and I think I'll definitely meet that at least. If things go right, 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think you and I might be sitting in a good spot for this one. Will be interesting to see where the best banding sets up. I know looking at the 300 mb, a good portion of Central MD up to York/Lancaster will sit right between the split jet maxima. Someone is going to get pasted tomorrow with 6-10" of snow between that zone Keep talking dirty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Seriously....45dbz snow is 3" an hour stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lwx says 12z nam initialized too cold and that affects its ptype forecasts for tonight/tomorrow...darn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lwx says 12z nam initialized too cold and that affects its ptype forecasts for tonight/tomorrow...darn Do you mean 18Z?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 000 FXUS61 KLWX 022042 AFDLWX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 342 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BEFORE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AFFECTS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... CDFNT INVOF I-95 AT 19Z. TEMPS SE OF FNT HV SPIKED...INTO THE MID-UPR 60S. EVIDENTLY...THE SFC INVSN HAS MIXED OUT IN CENTRL VA. MEANWHILE...TEMPS W OF THE APLCNS IN THE 40S. LTST 12Z GDNC...SPCLY NAM12...HAS INITIALIZED TOO COLD. THAT WL GREATLY IMPACT PTYPE FCSTS TNGT-TMRW. IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE THERE/S GOOD AGREEMENT. LOPRES INVOF THE GLFMEX CST WL TRACK NEWD TNGT ALONG THE FNT AND PASS OFF THE NC CST TMRW. THE PATH OF THE H8 LOW DISPLACED N OF THE SFC FEATURE. THAT WL PREVENT MUCH COLD AIR FM DRAINING SWD TIL THE MSTR LEAVES...NOT TO MENTION THE WARM START THAT EVERYBODY WL GET OFF TO. SO...XPCT PCPN TO START AS RA JUST ABT EVERYWHERE...XCPT PERHAPS THE ALLEGHENY FNT. BUT...AN UPR JET MAX WL BE ARND TO PROVIDE ADDED LIFT OVNGT...MORE OR LESS IN THE SAME TIME FRAME AS PVA ARRIVES. CWFA WL BE IN LFQ. SUBSEQUENTLY SUSPECT THERE WL BE DYNAMIC COOLING IN THE PTMC HIGHLANDS AND ACRS NRN MD...TO SUPPORT A TRANSITION TO SNW. TEMPS WL BE MARGINAL S OF THERE...AND XPCT A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT. FURTHER...THERES LTL REASON TO BELIEVE THAT TEMPS WL CHG MUCH DURING THE DAY ON MON...SO PTYPE WL REMAIN SIMLR THRUT THE EVENT. LIKE PRVS FCST CYCLES...IT/S LOOKING LIKE THE NRN CWFA WL BE THE OVERLAP BTWN COLD AIR AND QPF. THE RA/SN LINE WL BE DRAPED SOMEWHERE ACRS METRO BALT/DC...NRN FOOTHILLS...AND CENTRL VLY. THERE/S STILL WIGGLE ROOM IN EXACTLY WHERE THAT WL WIND UP. BUT BASED ON 12Z GDNC/ANALYSIS...THERE IS A SUFFICIENT OVERLAP TO JUSTIFY UPGRADING THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WRNG. THE STRIPE OF ADVY ADJACENT TO THAT WL BE THIN...FM BALT CITY...ACRS NWRN BURBS OF DC...TO CENTRL SHEN VLY. FOR LOUDOUN AND MONTGOMERY CO SPECIFICALLY...SOLNS CUD YIELD JUST RA TO WRNG SNW W/IN THE CNTY ALONE. SINCE TEMPS WL BE BARELY BLO FRZG...AND IN SOME CASES JUST ABV... RATIOS MAY BE LESS THAN A 10-1. BUT...QPF JUICY /ARND AN IN INCH LIQ/...SO SNW TTLS IN THE PTMC HIGHLNDS AND CATOCTINS MAY BE ARND 6-9 INCHES. ONCE THE LOW DEPARTS THE CST /ELY-MID AFTN/...THE CAA BEGINS IN EARNEST. BY THAT PT...THE BULK OF THE MSTR WL BE OUT OF HERE. MAY EVEN HV SOME CLRG IN THE FAR NW PRIOR TO SUNSET. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IN COMPARISON TO TNGT-MON...MON NGT WL BE RATHER QUIET AS HIPRES BLDS...MORE TO THE N OF THE CWFA RATHER THAN ATOP US. CLDS WL BE INCRSG AGN BY DAWN DUE TO WAA IN THIS FAST UPR FLOW. TEMPS NEAR A MOS BLEND. SFC HIGH MOVES EAST ON TUESDAY FROM NEAR TORONTO TO NEAR BOSTON. THIS ALLOWS EASTERLY FLOW TO SET UP...WHICH AS USUAL WILL BE A CLOUDY AND CHILLY FLOW FOR THE AREA. I AM NOT CONVINCED TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN EXCEED FREEZING WHERE THERE IS SNOW ON THE GROUND FROM MONDAY /OR WINDS OFF THE SNOWPACK TO THE EAST OR NORTHEAST/. UNDERCUT GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AREAS WHERE WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN SEEING SNOW ACCUMULATION. AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MOVES UP THE APPALACHIANS TUESDAY NIGHT...THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL DIMINISH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP. THERE ARE HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT AND WHERE IT MOVES RELATIVE TO OUR AREA. BUT INTERESTINGLY...THE END RESULT FOR OUR FORECAST AREA LOOKS THE SAME REGARDLESS. WARMING ALOFT WILL OVERRIDE THE COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE AND AS LONG AS TEMPS ARE SUB-FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THERE MAY ALSO BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET NEAR THE ONSET. BASED ON FCST SFC TEMPS...FZRA WILL BE MOST LIKELY ROUGHLY NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM BRANDYWINE WEST VIRGINIA TO DULLES TO BALTIMORE. ICE AMOUNTS COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IN THAT AREA IF THE COLD AIR HANGS AROUND ALL NIGHT. BUT THE HUGE MODEL DIFFERENCES MAKE IT DIFFICULT TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL FALL. SEE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THAT. THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...AND A LIKELY DRY SLOT AND DOWNSLOPING BEHIND THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL HELP TEMPS TO WARM PRETTY NICELY IN THE MORNING EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. MID 50S ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BRIEFLY BEFORE THE PLUNGE BEGINS. UPSLOPE SNOW ALSO LOOKS LIKELY ALONG THE ALLEGHENY FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES BACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Lwx says 12z nam initialized too cold and that affects its ptype forecasts for tonight/tomorrow...darn 12z or 18z? Or both? ETA: NVM, just saw the text above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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