BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know, I was just pointing out the surface doesn't have to be at 32 or below for accumulating snow. We also torched before the our hecs in 2010, but of course a whole different ball game. NAM early frames show tighter 2m temp gradients on the south and north sides of our system fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Agreed. I still think the city can pull off an inch and nearby suburbs 1-3. This will be a true nowcasting event. I think I can pull off 1-3" if I get rates and temps don't bust high. We have like no wiggle room though. We've been burned many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This will be a true nowcasting event. I think I can pull off 1-3" if I get rates and temps don't bust high. We have like no wiggle room though. We've been burned many times. Too many people have bad memories from 12/10 and 3/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am thinking nowhere within 35 miles will have surface temps 32 or cooler until the precip is nearly shut off. I think you are going to bust pretty badly, with your broad stroke prediction. Favored areas should do fine with the rates, and the surface temp forecast is so marginal it could easily be one or two degrees cooler tomorrow, which would make a huge diff in some areas. And, the ground isn't that warm, even after the last few days of positive departures. I don't expect accums on paved surfaces in our area, but could easily see 3-4 inches on grass and decks. Usual areas N and W could do much better with slight diffs in temps, rates, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On instantweathermaps, is that the 850 line over (or just NW of) DC at 3am? At 09z (4am), yes it is just NW of DCA (850 line) And it holds up there at 12z (7am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's a naming for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wunderground euro shows me getting 6" in a 3 hr period unless thats a 6 hr map, thats awesome rates. Still good rates for a 6" hr map. Sun angle will not be able to keep up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think you are going to bust pretty badly, with your broad stroke prediction. Favored areas should do fine with the rates, and the surface temp forecast is so marginal it could easily be one or two degrees cooler tomorrow, which would make a huge diff in some areas. And, the ground isn't that warm, even after the last few days of positive departures. I don't expect accums on paved surfaces in our area, but could easily see 3-4 inches on grass and decks. Usual areas N and W could do much better with slight diffs in temps, rates, etc. I was just out cleaning up after my dog. The ground is frozen solid just an inch or two below the surface in the open sun, and there were spots where it was solid right at the surface. I think if it does snow, it will stick pretty easily if temps are close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2m temps looks about the same at 12Z Monday, but the system has considerably slowed down, which would help us I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At 09z (4am), yes it is just NW of DCA (850 line) 18z NAM brings the 0-850 line further east by 9z than 12z run and, probably more importantly, holds the precip back to the sw if the precip would delay to give a hair more time for the cold to filter in, that would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At 09z (4am), yes it is just NW of DCA (850 line) I think we are about to get NAM'd. Precip slower and 850 is quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I guess we'll see who's righter tomorrow, boat. I hope u are, but I fear I will be. Back in full sunshine out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's a naming for sure. What are you naming it?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am thinking nowhere within 35 miles will have surface temps 32 or cooler until the precip is nearly shut off. Since when did you need to be below freezing for accumulating snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 thru 9z, even though the 850 line is further east, the 0-surface line is a hair west can't win with this storm, that is the 1 thing that is certain EDIT: otoh, when precip moves in it gets cold so that may explain slightly warmer temps as it's holding precip back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 While it may be snowing at IAD (re isothermal) at 12z... it might be sleeting at DCA with a huge warm nose at 775-825 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 high res later but here is 4am 850's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Slowing down a morning event is never good IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What are you naming it?. lol- it's just old school happy hour for another 90 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 meh, NAM further NW with precip shield ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 09z, stratiling the Fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 high res later but here is 4am 850's: 4amnam.JPG If only the NAM would be right that would be Secsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It does look like DCA is 32/33 at 15z per the 2m temp maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I just want for these models to put a fork in this asap so I can stop paying attention to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol- it's just old school happy hour for another 90 minutes I have a feeling we will be putting our weenies on the ledge by 4:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wish we could take Raleigh's snow map for 24 hr snow accum on the 18z NAM and lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 well, it looks warmer to me than 12z, so the trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 well, it looks warmer to me than 12z, so the trend continues Surface is a hair warmer 850's are a hair cooler. Not very significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 well, it looks warmer to me than 12z, so the trend continues Hard to read much into the model noise. These runs have all been basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Surface is a hair warmer 850's are a hair cooler. Not very significant. looks to not get the 0-850 thru me until after 15Z that's much worse than 12z, by 4 or 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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