birdsofprey02 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I got a text from weather app that harford county was changed to winter storm warning... Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've convinced myself to enjoy the heavy rates...if it accumulates then that's a bonus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WSW and WAA up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 850 line well past bwi by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 305 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 MDZ501-502-WVZ050-051-055-501>506-030415- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.140203T0400Z-140203T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0004.140203T0500Z-140203T2100Z/ EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-HAMPSHIRE- MORGAN-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL- EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...MOOREFIELD... BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER... FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 305 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS. * TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO AROUND 30 MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Newest HPC map- high prob >4" for Western Loudoun through to just north of Baltimore. still quite bullish, that puts me barely in 40%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC305 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014MDZ011-VAZ026-029-040-501-030415-/O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.140203T1000Z-140203T2100Z/SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-ROCKINGHAM-PAGE-RAPPAHANNOCK-NORTHERN FAUQUIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BALTIMORE...HARRISONBURG...WASHINGTON...WARRENTON305 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW PRE-DAWN AND EVENTUALLY CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY MORNING. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC305 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014MDZ009-010-VAZ042-503-504-030415-/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.140203T0400Z-140203T2100Z//O.NEW.KLWX.WW.Y.0009.140203T1000Z-140203T2100Z/MONTGOMERY-HOWARD-LOUDOUN-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GAITHERSBURG...COLUMBIA...LEESBURG...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY305 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 4 PM ESTMONDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HASISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM 5 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGERIN EFFECT.* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 5 INCHES.* TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW PRE-DAWN AND EVENTUALLY CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED DURING MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON.* TEMPERATURES...FALLING TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've convinced myself to enjoy the heavy rates...if it accumulates then that's a bonus... yea, me too. I've felt good and fretted little run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've convinced myself to enjoy the heavy rates...if it accumulates then that's a bonus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've convinced myself to enjoy the heavy rates...if it accumulates then that's a bonus... That's the only way to ride for this one. Check expectations. Repeat that and we'll all be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I really wish Fairfax got an advisory. FCPS is unlikely to close at this point methinks. (not that they should). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 thru 9z, even though the 850 line is further east, the 0-surface line is a hair west can't win with this storm, that is the 1 thing that is certain EDIT: otoh, when precip moves in it gets cold so that may explain slightly warmer temps as it's holding precip back According to Instantweather maps you are snow after 8 a.m., you are fretting for no reason except for the fact you usually get screwed . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've convinced myself to enjoy the heavy rates...if it accumulates then that's a bonus... aren't you supposed to do fairly well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Stunningly sharp gradient in precip types on the point in click forecasts even for those of us given up on by all but WPC. For example, the forecast in Bowie is snow after 8 AM with up to an inch of accumulation. The forecast for Mitchelllville is ran/snow mix until 4 PM with less than a 1/2 inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've punted for DC... Welcome to the club. We'll see snow tomorrow, perhaps even a moderate/heavy burst. But in 24 hours, it'll look exactly like it does right now outside. How many hours are we going to waste to track punt #3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The RAP is kind of cold It does look that way on the 1000-850 thickness map at 11z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Woooo warning for 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We'll see how 18z GFS handles 850mb deformation zone but the NAM did come a bit north with it from 12z run. It takes the circulation right over DC, meh.... On a separate note, how ridiculous were some of the deterministic solutions over the past week? Remember the OP GFS when it took the wave off the SE coast with barely any precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am just drinking now so if it doesn't snow I can still feel nice. So far, every damn storm has been bullseye line just north of DC. Should have stayed in Norfolk. Even they can pull off a 10 inch storm this year.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We'll see how 18z GFS handles 850mb deformation zone but the NAM did come a bit north with it from 12z run. It takes the circulation right over DC, meh.... On a separate note, how ridiculous were some of the deterministic solutions over the past week? Remember the OP GFS when it took the wave off the SE coast with barely any precip? thanks for the info HM you guys are gunna' get clocked...enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We'll see how 18z GFS handles 850mb deformation zone but the NAM did come a bit north with it from 12z run. It takes the circulation right over DC, meh.... On a separate note, how ridiculous were some of the deterministic solutions over the past week? Remember the OP GFS when it took the wave off the SE coast with barely any precip? I made a similar comment yesterday about the washed-out wave look from a few days ago. Most of us figured we'd see a north trend of some sort, but it's gone a little too far north for many of us, and the amount of precip that it has now is just insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What am I missing from the 15Z and 18Z panels on the 18Z NAM? Looks like 850 line along 95 pushing east, with .5"+ falling both panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It does seem like the ensembles have been surprisingly useful even after when past experience says go with the operational Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At what point do we stop paying for 09-10? It's like being sentenced to prison for robbing the bank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 4K Nam is purty for those just outside the Baltimore beltway and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 thanks for the info HM you guys are gunna' get clocked...enjoy No problem. I've lost count on how many events we've gotten this year. But I want to see my DC brethren get something for a change. I made a similar comment yesterday about the washed-out wave look from a few days ago. Most of us figured we'd see a north trend of some sort, but it's gone a little too far north for many of us, and the amount of precip that it has now is just insane. Yeah...during the medium range, I remember discussing these things with you guys...that my biggest worry was it shifting too far north/warm over the silly GFS solutions. This was a classic setup where the ECMWF would be superior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hires NAM at 7AM tomorrow. I'm just barely below 0 at 850. Probably a warm nose somewhere else but at least 850s are cooperating. FWIW, this is 3 hours quicker than 12z was with getting me below 0 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 4K Nam is purty for those just outside the Baltimore beltway and north. Sold....wrap it up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No problem. I've lost count on how many events we've gotten this year. But I want to see my DC brethren get something for a change. Yeah...during the medium range, I remember discussing these things with you guys...that my biggest worry was it shifting too far north/warm over the silly GFS solutions. This was a classic setup where the ECMWF would be superior. Well the Euro has been in a pretty window in terms of temps too for the last 4 or 5 runs whereas the NAM and GFS have been jumping more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At what point do we stop paying for 09-10? It's like being sentenced to prison for robbing the bank. 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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