Amped Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wunderground euro shows me getting 6" in a 3 hr period unless thats a 6 hr map, thats awesome rates. Still good rates for a 6" hr map. Sun angle will not be able to keep up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think you are going to bust pretty badly, with your broad stroke prediction. Favored areas should do fine with the rates, and the surface temp forecast is so marginal it could easily be one or two degrees cooler tomorrow, which would make a huge diff in some areas. And, the ground isn't that warm, even after the last few days of positive departures. I don't expect accums on paved surfaces in our area, but could easily see 3-4 inches on grass and decks. Usual areas N and W could do much better with slight diffs in temps, rates, etc. I was just out cleaning up after my dog. The ground is frozen solid just an inch or two below the surface in the open sun, and there were spots where it was solid right at the surface. I think if it does snow, it will stick pretty easily if temps are close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2m temps looks about the same at 12Z Monday, but the system has considerably slowed down, which would help us I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At 09z (4am), yes it is just NW of DCA (850 line) 18z NAM brings the 0-850 line further east by 9z than 12z run and, probably more importantly, holds the precip back to the sw if the precip would delay to give a hair more time for the cold to filter in, that would be ideal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 At 09z (4am), yes it is just NW of DCA (850 line) I think we are about to get NAM'd. Precip slower and 850 is quicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I guess we'll see who's righter tomorrow, boat. I hope u are, but I fear I will be. Back in full sunshine out here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's a naming for sure. What are you naming it?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am thinking nowhere within 35 miles will have surface temps 32 or cooler until the precip is nearly shut off. Since when did you need to be below freezing for accumulating snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 thru 9z, even though the 850 line is further east, the 0-surface line is a hair west can't win with this storm, that is the 1 thing that is certain EDIT: otoh, when precip moves in it gets cold so that may explain slightly warmer temps as it's holding precip back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 While it may be snowing at IAD (re isothermal) at 12z... it might be sleeting at DCA with a huge warm nose at 775-825 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 high res later but here is 4am 850's: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Slowing down a morning event is never good IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What are you naming it?. lol- it's just old school happy hour for another 90 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 meh, NAM further NW with precip shield ughh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 09z, stratiling the Fall line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 high res later but here is 4am 850's: 4amnam.JPG If only the NAM would be right that would be Secsy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It does look like DCA is 32/33 at 15z per the 2m temp maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I just want for these models to put a fork in this asap so I can stop paying attention to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lol- it's just old school happy hour for another 90 minutes I have a feeling we will be putting our weenies on the ledge by 4:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wish we could take Raleigh's snow map for 24 hr snow accum on the 18z NAM and lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 well, it looks warmer to me than 12z, so the trend continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 well, it looks warmer to me than 12z, so the trend continues Surface is a hair warmer 850's are a hair cooler. Not very significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 well, it looks warmer to me than 12z, so the trend continues Hard to read much into the model noise. These runs have all been basically the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Surface is a hair warmer 850's are a hair cooler. Not very significant. looks to not get the 0-850 thru me until after 15Z that's much worse than 12z, by 4 or 5 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Warnings for the N. counties with the 3pm discussion? At this point they have to either put up a WSW or WWA with the 3 PM update... too close to game time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mitch, I'm not seeing the same thing you are. It's widespread .9 - 1.1 with the same 32-34 temps we've been seeing. It's a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Newest HPC map- high prob >4" for Western Loudoun through to just north of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mitch, I'm not seeing the same thing you are. It's widespread .9 - 1.1 with the same 32-34 temps we've been seeing. It's a good run. Yeah... the 32 degree line is just N and W of I-95 at 10am... DCA is prob 33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wish we could take Raleigh's snow map for 24 hr snow accum on the 18z NAM and lock it up I think it was a better run for us. WxBell snow maps have 4-5" for us. I'd take half of that even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 305 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 MDZ003>007-VAZ027-028-030-031-WVZ052-053-030415- /O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.140203T0400Z-140203T2100Z/ /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0004.140203T0800Z-140203T2100Z/ WASHINGTON-FREDERICK MD-CARROLL-NORTHERN BALTIMORE-HARFORD- SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-WARREN-CLARKE-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FREDERICK...WESTMINSTER... WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN 305 PM EST SUN FEB 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 4 PM EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES. * TIMING...RAIN WILL MIX WITH SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO THE LOWER 30S MONDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH. * IMPACTS...ROADS COULD BECOME SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY... MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. SNOW WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO BELOW ONE-HALF MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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