Avdave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clouds keeping temps in low 40s We will be fine. I would say from Emmitsburg to FDK to JYO and all points N & W will do ok in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We will be fine. I would say from Emmitsburg to FDK to JYO and all points N & W will do ok in this storm. Yeesh...Temps have settled in the low 50's here...I'm beginning to feel unsettled even though many forecasts put me in the jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Also JYO 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We will be fine. I would say from Emmitsburg to FDK to JYO and all points N & W will do ok in this storm. just hit 59. front way back in WVa. Doubt I lose 28 degrees in the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 56.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 49 east of Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 52F and bright sunshine now here. Furnace. Going to hit 60F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think this is going to produce for DC. Dynamic system, wayyy overdue, I just got a feeling. And the SREF snowfall plume mean is back up to 6" for DC on the 9z run. Just trying to catch up here. It's like a roller coaster every few hours! ;-) Do you have the 9z SREF for BWI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeesh...Temps have settled in the low 50's here...I'm beginning to feel unsettled even though many forecasts put me in the jackpot zone. I was close to 60 last weeks snow the day before and I received 7+" here. I know it is a different set up but Im not to concerned. What ever happens, it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Someone might as well start an obs thread and just let this one run the rest of the model watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 One of the things that has me a bit more optimistic about this storm is that at the low levels, flow is from the N and advecting in cold dry air (helps with evap cooling) - note that we did not have this on 3/6. The problems are at the mid levels where flow is more out of the WSW or even turns SW for a bit as the wave amplifies. So the key as many have mentioned is to get the strong upward motion to force moist adiabatic cooling. This is evident on the hires NAM output. This should be the type of storm where you go from heavy snow to drizzle depending on whether you are in a band or not, although a lot depends on how fast the cold air filters in. I'm guessing the rain/snow line will move S in jumps based on banding. Should be fun to watch although frustrating for those who miss out or change after wasting a lot of liquid on rain. me too...This isnt our normal borderline situation where we have light precip and/or the sounding is perfect down to 925mb and then it grossly slants to the right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 obs and non model stuff http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42690-monday-mauler-obs-thread/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WRF isn't too bad. http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 One of the things that has me a bit more optimistic about this storm is that at the low levels, flow is from the N and advecting in cold dry air (helps with evap cooling) - note that we did not have this on 3/6. The problems are at the mid levels where flow is more out of the WSW or even turns SW for a bit as the wave amplifies. So the key as many have mentioned is to get the strong upward motion to force moist adiabatic cooling. This is evident on the hires NAM output. This should be the type of storm where you go from heavy snow to drizzle depending on whether you are in a band or not, although a lot depends on how fast the cold air filters in. I'm guessing the rain/snow line will move S in jumps based on banding. Should be fun to watch although frustrating for those who miss out or change after wasting a lot of liquid on rain. I feel good about seeing some snow fall given the northerly component. I don't feel good about it sticking given it starts as rain and switches over after sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The mid lvl vort pass sucks IMBY. I guess all the weenie optimism might help though. I love going in needing temps to cool fast enough to change rain to snow after the sun comes up. I feel really good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am even starting to worry about temps out here. Hell i'm already at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Heard Euro is super wet, how are the temps?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks as good as last night's run tempwise at least on the early maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks as good as last night's run tempwise at least on the early maps. Nice and wetter it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks as good as last night's run tempwise at least on the early maps. grrrreat news....I hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1.2"+ most of the area.. a little less right near the MD/PA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Heard Euro is super wet, how are the temps?. running very slow on wxbell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1.2"+ most of the area.. a little less right near the MD/PA border. Sweeeeet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1.2"+ most of the area.. a little less right near the MD/PA border. is Matt doing a snow dance or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1.2"+ most of the area.. a little less right near the MD/PA border. Dang. Temps still ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 snowmap has just less than 1' from winchester across n md. of course overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 snowmap has just less than 1' from winchester across n md. of course overdone. What if it's underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 850's right at zero dc up 95 at 7am. -1 splits Howard Moco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dang. Temps still ok? 33-34 most of the area during precip. DCA goes from 36 at 12z to 34 at 18z. Far northern MD closer to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The TEMPS...I NEED TO KNOW THE TEMPS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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