Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II


DDweatherman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think this is going to produce for DC. Dynamic system, wayyy overdue, I just got a feeling. And the SREF snowfall plume mean is back up to 6" for DC on the 9z run. ;)

Just trying to catch up here. It's like a roller coaster every few hours! ;-) Do you have the 9z SREF for BWI?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeesh...Temps have settled in the low 50's here...I'm beginning to feel unsettled even though many forecasts put me in the jackpot zone.

I was close to 60 last weeks snow the day before and I received 7+" here. I know it is a different set up but Im not to concerned. What ever happens, it is what it is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the things that has me a bit more optimistic about this storm is that at the low levels, flow is from the N and advecting in cold dry air (helps with evap cooling) - note that we did not have this on 3/6. The problems are at the mid levels where flow is more out of the WSW or even turns SW for a bit as the wave amplifies. So the key as many have mentioned is to get the strong upward motion to force moist adiabatic cooling. This is evident on the hires NAM output. This should be the type of storm where you go from heavy snow to drizzle depending on whether you are in a band or not, although a lot depends on how fast the cold air filters in. I'm guessing the rain/snow line will move S in jumps based on banding. Should be fun to watch although frustrating for those who miss out or change after wasting a lot of liquid on rain.

 

me too...This isnt our normal borderline situation where we have light precip and/or the sounding is perfect down to 925mb and then it grossly slants to the right...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the things that has me a bit more optimistic about this storm is that at the low levels, flow is from the N and advecting in cold dry air (helps with evap cooling) - note that we did not have this on 3/6. The problems are at the mid levels where flow is more out of the WSW or even turns SW for a bit as the wave amplifies. So the key as many have mentioned is to get the strong upward motion to force moist adiabatic cooling. This is evident on the hires NAM output. This should be the type of storm where you go from heavy snow to drizzle depending on whether you are in a band or not, although a lot depends on how fast the cold air filters in. I'm guessing the rain/snow line will move S in jumps based on banding. Should be fun to watch although frustrating for those who miss out or change after wasting a lot of liquid on rain.

I feel good about seeing some snow fall given the northerly component. I don't feel good about it sticking given it starts as rain and switches over after sunrise.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The mid lvl vort pass sucks IMBY. I guess all the weenie optimism might help though.  I love going in needing temps to cool fast enough to change rain to snow after the sun comes up. I feel really good about this one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...