stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think the watch will be upgraded to a warning unless the Euro totally craps the bed. DC should get an advisory. Flood Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The RGEM precip type maps don't look that great to me. Looks like quite a bit of rain before switchover. Not sure why everyone is so excited about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The dynamics are going to make or break this storm for SE areas. Models have great upper level divergence, intense lift as shown on the 700 and 850 mb vv panels, and a ton of juice. That is what will produce the "cold enough" surface temps. If that doesnt work out wrt to alignment or timing, then its mostly heavy rain and sleet. It is my experience that if you talk about a storm "producing" cold air... you get yelled at/ made fun of... but I think its possible.. or something like it (as described above).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The dynamics are going to make or break this storm for SE areas. Models have great upper level divergence, intense lift as shown on the 700 and 850 mb vv panels, and a ton of juice. That is what will produce the "cold enough" surface temps. If that doesnt work out wrt to alignment or timing, then its mostly heavy rain and sleet. That's what I'm thinking also. We always hear how dynamics and rates overcome factors going against it. This will be a good test. I just hope the models are overdoing the QPF. but since their all on board with a lot of precip I guess it's a good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The RGEM precip type maps don't look that great to me. Looks like quite a bit of rain before switchover. Not sure why everyone is so excited about it. I am not in front of a computer now but it looked like it flipped to snow at around 7 a.m. for me and you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 DCA: .7 BWI: 1.9 IAD: 1.7 HGR: 6.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DCA: .7 BWI: 1.9 IAD: 1.7 HGR: 6.8 Wow so you are going with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DCA: .7 BWI: 1.9 IAD: 1.7 HGR: 6.8 More bearish than I would have expected from you, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 More bearish than I would have expected from you, to be honest.Gotta know when to like a certain storm. This one isn't my favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1-3" for my backyard with a good amount of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 1-3" for my backyard with a good amount of sleet I think if the Euro holds from last night or gets colder everyone here will forget the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think if the Euro holds from last night or gets colder everyone here will forget the GFS. Will be a distant memory real quick like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clouds and frozen river keeping DCA temps in check.. could be a saving grace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Text output from the gfs for jyo is odd..has .02 as rain then .84 with no symbol then .25 as snow....I'm guessing the .84 is a mixed bag of love and hate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 FWIW, The 12z Canadian is the best looking model.... I'm 55 so I may hit 60....time to do more stuff with the boat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Text output from the gfs for jyo is odd..has .02 as rain then .84 with no symbol then .25 as snow....I'm guessing the .84 is a mixed bag of love and hate Clouds keeping temps in low 40s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clouds and frozen river keeping DCA temps in check.. could be a saving graceI am already at 50 near Navy Yard. Thought that was pretty high. Wouldn't be surprised to see it hit upper 50's. Clouds may help limit but will also limit cool down tonight before the rain starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How do the dynamics set up as compared with jan 2011? That was one of my favorite storms... it poured snow for about four hours... we gonna see anything like that? I highly doubt we'll see anything of that magnitude around this time. We'll see some impressive dynamics with this storm, don't get me wrong, but the magnitude of that storm was incredible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With all of these marginal events usually screwing us in DC, isn't it bout time it goes the other way? What if the cold front drops in a bit faster than modeled? I mean eventually statistics have to break for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm 55 so I may hit 60....time to do more stuff with the boat. It is gorgeous outside. My jeep is black and shiny once again. At least for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 5 degree spike with some clearing skies here after a chilly morning. Now 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 I highly doubt we'll see anything of that magnitude around this time. We'll see some impressive dynamics with this storm, don't get me wrong, but the magnitude of that storm was incredible Yes, not everyday you look out to hear heavy rain then hear thunder and look out and its immediately pouring snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With all of these marginal events usually screwing us in DC, isn't it bout time it goes the other way? What if the cold front drops in a bit faster than modeled? I mean eventually statistics have to break for the better. 1/2 was a nice over-performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GEOS5ftw Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 One of the things that has me a bit more optimistic about this storm is that at the low levels, flow is from the N and advecting in cold dry air (helps with evap cooling) - note that we did not have this on 3/6. The problems are at the mid levels where flow is more out of the WSW or even turns SW for a bit as the wave amplifies. So the key as many have mentioned is to get the strong upward motion to force moist adiabatic cooling. This is evident on the hires NAM output. This should be the type of storm where you go from heavy snow to drizzle depending on whether you are in a band or not, although a lot depends on how fast the cold air filters in. I'm guessing the rain/snow line will move S in jumps based on banding. Should be fun to watch although frustrating for those who miss out or change after wasting a lot of liquid on rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Maybe I'll be wrong, but I think this is going to produce for DC. Dynamic system, wayyy overdue, I just got a feeling. And the SREF snowfall plume mean is back up to 6" for DC on the 9z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clouds keeping temps in low 40s We will be fine. I would say from Emmitsburg to FDK to JYO and all points N & W will do ok in this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We will be fine. I would say from Emmitsburg to FDK to JYO and all points N & W will do ok in this storm. Yeesh...Temps have settled in the low 50's here...I'm beginning to feel unsettled even though many forecasts put me in the jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 2, 2014 Author Share Posted February 2, 2014 Also JYO 4.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We will be fine. I would say from Emmitsburg to FDK to JYO and all points N & W will do ok in this storm. just hit 59. front way back in WVa. Doubt I lose 28 degrees in the next 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 56.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.