PDIII Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Ouch..... DCA: MON 12Z 03-FEB 1.5 1.3 1018 0.66 564 549 MON 18Z 03-FEB 2.0 -0.6 1022 0.45 561 544 TUE 00Z 04-FEB -0.6 -1.5 1025 0.01 565 544 BWI: MON 06Z 03-FEB 3.4 3.2 1019 0.01 567 551 MON 12Z 03-FEB 1.1 1.8 1019 0.57 563 548 MON 18Z 03-FEB 1.4 -1.0 1022 0.41 560 543 TUE 00Z 04-FEB -1.6 -2.1 1025 0.01 563 543 IAD: MON 06Z 03-FEB 3.2 3.6 1019 0.02 566 551 MON 12Z 03-FEB 1.1 0.7 1020 0.90 563 547 MON 18Z 03-FEB 1.4 -1.5 1022 0.32 560 542 TUE 00Z 04-FEB -1.6 -2.0 1026 0.01 564 544 What are the first 2 columns? 850 and surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Just going to pretend that run never happened. goes against all other 12z guidance so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Temperatures? Obviously, but WHY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We are either getting out the row boat or the sled. Toss a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 What are the first 2 columns? 850 and surface temps? Surface temps first then 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 short answer is temps No ****? Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 So why is the Euro/NAM dropping so much qpf in the way of snow and the GFS is not? What's the difference? My guess would be the timing of the frontal passage that allows the 850's to sink south to turn over any rain to snow. The GFS, imo is not the best model to use at this time frame, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. Where you and I sit are in perfect locations for this storm (I'm in Millersville, Pa at school now, but I lived in around Carney/Parkville area my whole life beforehand). Hope that helped answer your question Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 LWX needs to hoist flood watches in the areas not getting snow. Ground is still solid as a rock out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is probably right. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My guess would be the timing of the frontal passage that allows the 850's to sink south to turn over any rain to snow. The GFS, imo is not the best model to use at this time frame, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. Where you and I sit are in perfect locations for this storm (I'm in Millersville, Pa at school now, but I lived in around Carney/Parkville area my whole life beforehand). Hope that helped answer your question Thank you, much better than he obvious "temps" answer some felt to respond with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Snow country meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Temperatures? temp differences and the fact that ptype algorithms aren't that good especially the euro one which seems to predict snow as long as any level is below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Every model except for the GFS is good for us. I will take the Euro/Rgem/Nam combo over the GFS every day. Plus the RGEM has been great at everything including temps this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Bawler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Snow country meltdown. Like my snow outside In all seriousness, I just wanted an explanation to why the GFS was keeping it warmer than the euro/nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 GFS is probably right. Oh well. I could have predicted your response . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No ****? Really? A higher resolution on the NAM helps maybe? It's tough to tell when folks are being serious these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My guess would be the timing of the frontal passage that allows the 850's to sink south to turn over any rain to snow. The GFS, imo is not the best model to use at this time frame, so I wouldn't worry about it too much. Where you and I sit are in perfect locations for this storm (I'm in Millersville, Pa at school now, but I lived in around Carney/Parkville area my whole life beforehand). Hope that helped answer your question Go back and look at the Dec 9 case when the NAM had a 6F error in surface temps in a case like this one. It tends to be too cold around DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Obviously, but WHY I wouldn't get overly concerned. All models have locked into a high QPF event. With your location and elevation you don't figure to have pouring rain on Feb. 3rd with temps in the low 30's and 850's close. GFS looks like it drags it's feet cooling the entire column. Even if this run verified I think we're still good for 4-6 but I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM was better for the Tuesday event. It showed the heavy bands over Upper eastern shore, DE, SNJ. That verified. GFS had weaker 700 mb uvv over this area. DC folks ride the NAM+Euro train. Ignore the GFS Speaking of the NAM and VVs, thats impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12hr QPF totals: Over an inch area wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wouldn't get overly concerned. All models have locked into a high QPF event. With your location and elevation you don't figure to have pouring rain on Feb. 3rd with temps in the low 30's and 850's close. GFS looks like it drags it's feet cooling the entire column. Even if this run verified I think we're still good for 4-6 but I could be wrong. I'm not worried, it will snow or it won't. I'm just trying to learn and understand why the GFS show what it does and the euro shows something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wouldn't get overly concerned. All models have locked into a high QPF event. With your location and elevation you don't figure to have pouring rain on Feb. 3rd with temps in the low 30's and 850's close. GFS looks like it drags it's feet cooling the entire column. Even if this run verified I think we're still good for 4-6 but I could be wrong. I think you're in good shape but the southern folk like Ian, Matt, and I are not. I don't trust the NAM surface temps. We've been burned by them twice this year and I think twice last if I remember correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thank you, much better than he obvious "temps" answer some felt to respond with No problem. The main focus with this storm will be cooling the columns above to get a pure snow signature, albeit a very wet snow. Others have noted the area of most concern will be from 750-850 mb with this storm. If that area is above freezing, then the ptype that could be seen would be in the form of sleet I believe. The dynamics of the system are another important aspect to pay attention too. The area's with the highest UVV, or vertical motion, will experience banding that will help dynamically cool the column above and dump copious amounts of snow in a short time frame despite ratios not being up to standard. Models like the GFS are not the best suited models to pick out such instances, but they can hint at them (HM was explaining this last night in one of his posts). Someone will get thumped tomorrow and my guess is it will be near the MD/PA line closer to you just based off models that are more suited for short range. I think the RGEM has been very consistent since yesterday with its depiction, so I'm riding that off into the sunset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No problem. The main focus with this storm will be cooling the columns above to get a pure snow signature, albeit a very wet snow. Others have noted the area of most concern will be from 750-850 mb with this storm. If that area is above freezing, then the ptype that could be seen would be in the form of sleet I believe. The dynamics of the system are another important aspect to pay attention too. The area's with the highest UVV, or vertical motion, will experience banding that will help dynamically cool the column above and dump copious amounts of snow in a short time frame despite ratios not being up to standard. Models like the GFS are not the best suited models to pick out such instances, but they can hint at them (HM was explaining this last night in one of his posts). Someone will get thumped tomorrow and my guess is it will be near the MD/PA line closer to you just based off models that are more suited for short range. I think the RGEM has been very consistent since yesterday with its depiction, so I'm riding that off into the sunset great post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think you're in good shape but the southern folk like Ian, Matt, and I are not. I don't trust the NAM surface temps. We've been burned by them twice this year and I think twice last if I remember correctly. I think back a few ago during the Feb. 2011 event the NAM was too cold also and a lot of people got burned. That storm was kinda similar to this one but the air mass behind it was stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think the watch will be upgraded to a warning unless the Euro totally craps the bed. DC should get an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm not worried, it will snow or it won't. I'm just trying to learn and understand why the GFS show what it does and the euro shows something different. I hear ya. I wish I could have your disposition. I will have a tough time enjoying the Superbowl party tonight because of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 great post! Thanks man. There's a reason I'm up here at school is to better understand these types of situations and what to look for. I've learned a lot from many on here like Matt, Bob, Wes, HM, and others who I don't know their exact names lol. Climo is really a big kick in the arse for many on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I think you're in good shape but the southern folk like Ian, Matt, and I are not. I don't trust the NAM surface temps. We've been burned by them twice this year and I think twice last if I remember correctly. Yes but it is not like it is by itself. It has the Euro/Rgem with it and the Rgem has been great with temps this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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