mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Mitch, its a jacked up solution. It's all snow but light precip and it's more than 2-4. All 6 hour panels from 1am Saturday till 7pm Sunday show precip and its all snow.. Looks like 2 waves. Maybe .5ish or so? It's an odd run. But at least it looks nothing like the gfs Debbie downer Rainer k thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Will someone please tell the 03z SREF to stop increasing QPF? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Didn't realize how wet this system was down south ... Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 k thanks Storm 2 still looks like more ice than anything but it's a warm ice for those favored areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 new SREFs wetter than old run and look, maybe, a tad cooler at surface and aloft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Didn't realize how wet this system was down south ... Wow Highest qpf non accum snow on record incoming? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 new SREFs wetter than old run and look, maybe, a tad cooler at surface and aloft def wetter... first time the 1" contour appeared... and its not just a tiny one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Storm 2 still looks like more ice than anything but it's a warm ice for those favored areas yep, at least it won't wash away our 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 yep, at least it won't wash away our 4-6" Most of QPF for u in storm 2 is near 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Most of QPF for u in storm 2 is near 32 yep , saw that I figured I'd get Accuwx Pro for the month of FEB shame they don't update the Euro maps as fast as they update the mos numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Might as well just stay up for the 6z NAM I am hoping for a slight north trend in the QPF field based off what Wes described earlier during the 00z NAM run and praying for the temps to cool like another 2 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not caring as much about surface temps with increasingly wet guidance. Just watching low vis and heavy snow fall might do it for me even if it doesn't pile up. Yes, I'm being serious. Guidance isn't showing rain. And it's trending towards a relatively hight qpf event. I can get into that even without worrying about measuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 who needs sleep when the 0Z NAM is running? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 bad news on Euro folks....I just checked the skewt soundings on the Accuwx pro site there's a warm layer above 850, even at IAD at 12Z on Monday that explains why the thicknesses were so high on the surface maps I don't think it's as good a run as earlier thought...assuming u even liked it in the first place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm not caring as much about surface temps with increasingly wet guidance. Just watching low vis and heavy snow fall might do it for me even if it doesn't pile up. Yes, I'm being serious. Guidance isn't showing rain. And it's trending towards a relatively hight qpf event. I can get into that even without worrying about measuring I know its not the same event... but weren't we doing the same thing during the Comutaggedon storm? We knew it would be high QPF but temps were marginal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 bad news on Euro folks....I just checked the skewt soundings on the Accuwx pro site there's a warm layer above 850, even at IAD at 12Z on Monday that explains why the thicknesses were so high on the surface maps I don't think it's as good a run as earlier thought...assuming u even liked it in the first place how deep of a warm layer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 bad news on Euro folks....I just checked the skewt soundings on the Accuwx pro site there's a warm layer above 850, even at IAD at 12Z on Monday that explains why the thicknesses were so high on the surface maps I don't think it's as good a run as earlier thought...assuming u even liked it in the first place it's between 830mb and 700mb, and looks to get to +3C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BTW, the SREFs prob of snowfall accums are silly around us... prob effected by a few silly members... for example, there is ~20 percent chance DC sees 12" or more of snow in a 24 period at 72 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BTW, the SREFs prob of snowfall accums are silly around us... prob effected by a few silly members... for example, there is ~20 percent chance DC sees 12" or more of snow in a 24 period at 72 hrs can u send me a link to BWI or do u have a pay site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 can u send me a link to BWI or do u have a pay site? Its the one on here... the AmWx model site... i hope this is okay since i have seen these posted in the SE forum during the last storm. If not, please delete or let me know. I am pretty sure it looks like this prob cause of like 3 or 4 members showing like 15" skewing the mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 otoh re the Euro, WUnderground snow maps, which were too conservative on 1/22, give us 5", so who knows if the Accuwx skewts are right, but the thicknesses indicated on their surface maps would support a warm layer somewhere up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its the one on here... the AmWx model site... i hope this is okay since i have seen these posted in the SE forum during the last storm. If not, please delete or let me know. I am pretty sure it looks like this prob cause of like 3 or 4 members showing like 15" skewing the mean 03zSREF02-01-1424hrProbof24hrsnowaccumsgreaterthan12inches.gif thanks other than those 3, where are most of them, in what range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 thanks other than those 3, where are most of them, in what range? never mind, the site I have just updated for BWI http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20140201&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=BWI&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Per 03z SREFs: For BWI -- 5 plumes of 10"+... 1 is around 6"... 4 are a 3-5" storm... 1 around 1"... and the last 12 are basically nothing thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 at 42 hrs on 6z, my guess is warmer and wetter than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 at 42 hrs on 6z, my guess is warmer and wetter than 0z At 51, everything is JUST below freezing on the sounding.. and I mean JUST... but we are fine at 54... entire column below freezing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 At 51, everything is JUST below freezing on the sounding.. and I mean JUST... but we are fine at 54... entire column below freezing... we as in DCA, IAD, yby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Nice run for NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 sim rad at 54 says it's snowing pretty good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 we as in DCA, IAD, yby? DCA and IAD mainly... BWI is a bit better at 51 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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