usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM'ED But right at freeezing, the gfs is better but still is warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Whether it accumulates or not it sure does sound like a period of some heavy snow tv for most.... Whomever gets in some sweet band will really enjoy what falls. Over .5" in 6 hours is a dump of stuff It is looking that way. Prob gonna work from home tomorrow as it could be snowing by daybreak Sleep-in snow is awesome Latest RAP backed off highs today. Last night's runs were showing highs into the mid 60s here. Now it looks like upper 50s to near 60. Still too warm IMO. I want to be at 36 for the high. Then I would believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wes...what is the actual forecast high today. I'm seeing 48-55 range. What temp do we start to panic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Tough call for cwg. 1-11 inches ? Yeah, luckily, I'm not the article writer today though I'm sure I'll be called to talk about it. We've been burned so many times the last three years, it's possible we're gun shy. I'd probably show a sounding or two that shows the temps right at freezing through a deep layer if it were me. Of course, the next run of the nam could jump back warm like yesterday's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Wes...what is the actual forecast high today. I'm seeing 48-55 range. What temp do we start to panic? I'm not sure we panic but temps should be in the mid 50s from dc south and some may nudge above 55. The models have that. I still worry about the DCA and the urban temps as we've been burned a couple of times in the last two years with the nam showing temps getting to freezing with high rates only to have the temps stay above freezing longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know theres a big level of uncertainty here, but are any of you putting faith in one of this winter's most accurate models: the Canadian? DC is in game, but no one seems to be jumping over anything. That model's been outputting the same thing for days. I don't think it's just 'on to something' with EURO and (new) NAM support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know theres a big level of uncertainty here, but are any of you putting faith in one of this winter's most accurate models: the Canadian? DC is in game, but no one seems to be jumping over anything. That model's been outputting the same thing for days. I don't think it's just 'on to something' with EURO and (new) NAM support. That is news to me. I thought the Canadian still scores lower than the Euro and GFS. At least at 500mb. Also the Euro has held onto its current solution before the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JB2's first call. Dude is having a decent year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 JB2's first call. Dude is having a decent year. The part when he nailed the forecast for the January 2nd-3rd storm....That was one of his finest hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll know by 7am whether I'm in trouble or not. If i'm in trouble I'll have to chase. Prob take less than 30 mins to get there I've never done that, but I just might as I am off tomorrow. If we have nothing in Germantown and it's snowing heavily in northern MD, I might have to go to Hagerstown for lunch. Just a 45-50 minute drive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Some nice clouds off to the west....maybe they help keep temps down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The part when he nailed the forecast for the January 2nd-3rd storm....That was one of his finest hours. Yep. I just get irritated at how much he pimps his Weather App and how he makes people think the Canadian is the new Euro by only comparing it against the GFS. I still like him though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On my phone walking into church but SREFs don't look much different. Maybe a hair better at 850s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Some nice clouds off to the west....maybe they help keep temps down Are they cold clouds or warm? Need to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 12z NAM coming in. So far by 24h it's a tad slower and just as cool as 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nam is close to 6z but probably not quite as good...at least at 24 hr anyway..30 hr is OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM seems even wetter...my goodness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Comparing the 0c surface line on the instantweather maps, if anything it looks to be a simdgen SE on 26 hr panel of 12z vs. 32 on 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nam is close to 6z but probably not quite as good...at least at 24 hr anyway..30 hr is OK 27h is pretty nice, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll know by 7am whether I'm in trouble or not. If i'm in trouble I'll have to chase. Prob take less than 30 mins to get thereHopefully you wouldn't need to go farther than Damascus or Mt. Airy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM goes KABOOM to central MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Surface temperature warmer, but 850 temps colder. I'll take it, especially with those insane rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For silver spring: 24 hr is a marginal snow sounding, 27 hr has a warm nose below 700, then 30 is good but i'm guessing mostly over by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm not sure where this isn't "as good as 6z"..at least down here. It looks a smidge colder at the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm hugging the nam and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It looks like the heaviest precip is falling at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 27h is pretty nice, too. For you but DCA.....look at the warm layer at 750 mb. Would be a sleet sounding. Date: 27 hour Eta valid 15Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1013 57 0.1 -0.6 94 0.8 -0.2 11 10 272.3 272.9 272.3 282.0 3.60 1 1000 162 -0.8 16 16 272.3 2 950 570 -0.9 -1.0 99 0.1 -1.0 50 26 276.2 276.9 274.8 286.5 3.73 3 900 1002 -1.1 -1.2 100 0.1 -1.2 49 21 280.3 281.0 277.2 291.2 3.89 4 850 1458 -0.8 -0.8 100 0.0 -0.8 84 14 285.3 286.0 280.1 297.3 4.24 5 800 1944 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.2 192 20 291.4 292.2 283.5 305.4 4.84 6 750 2464 1.4 1.4 100 0.0 1.4 223 45 298.1 299.1 287.0 314.7 5.63 7 700 3017 -0.9 -0.9 100 0.0 -0.9 241 55 301.5 302.4 287.7 316.9 5.11 8 650 3607 -3.1 -3.3 98 0.2 -3.1 243 61 305.5 306.4 288.6 319.7 4.63 9 600 4237 -6.9 -7.8 94 0.9 -7.3 248 59 308.1 308.7 288.5 319.2 3.54 10 550 4910 -11.7 -13.1 89 1.4 -12.2 251 68 310.2 310.6 288.2 318.3 2.53 11 500 5634 -15.2 -16.8 87 1.6 -15.7 242 76 314.5 314.9 289.1 321.2 2.05 12 450 6425 -19.5 -21.3 85 1.8 -20.0 227 81 318.8 319.1 290.0 324.0 1.55 13 400 7289 -25.8 -28.2 80 2.4 -26.3 223 87 321.4 321.6 290.2 324.7 0.94 14 350 8240 -33.7 -36.8 74 3.0 -34.1 225 87 323.3 323.4 290.3 325.0 0.47 15 300 9299 -43.5 -47.5 65 3.9 -43.7 232 96 324.0 324.0 290.2 324.7 0.18 16 250 10500 -51.6 239 107 329.3 17 200 11923 -57.4 239 101 341.8 18 150 13744 -58.0 254 99 370.2 19 100 16221 -70.6 253 82 391.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm hugging the nam and euro The you go, mapgirl! Me too (along with the Canadian). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM sim radar has the death band at 12z in the usual spot, from Philly SW through NMD, Extreme NVA, and easter WV, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 For you but DCA.....look at the warm layer at 750 mb. Would be a sleet sounding. Date: 27 hour Eta valid 15Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1013 57 0.1 -0.6 94 0.8 -0.2 11 10 272.3 272.9 272.3 282.0 3.60 1 1000 162 -0.8 16 16 272.3 2 950 570 -0.9 -1.0 99 0.1 -1.0 50 26 276.2 276.9 274.8 286.5 3.73 3 900 1002 -1.1 -1.2 100 0.1 -1.2 49 21 280.3 281.0 277.2 291.2 3.89 4 850 1458 -0.8 -0.8 100 0.0 -0.8 84 14 285.3 286.0 280.1 297.3 4.24 5 800 1944 0.2 0.2 100 0.0 0.2 192 20 291.4 292.2 283.5 305.4 4.84 6 750 2464 1.4 1.4 100 0.0 1.4 223 45 298.1 299.1 287.0 314.7 5.63 7 700 3017 -0.9 -0.9 100 0.0 -0.9 241 55 301.5 302.4 287.7 316.9 5.11 8 650 3607 -3.1 -3.3 98 0.2 -3.1 243 61 305.5 306.4 288.6 319.7 4.63 9 600 4237 -6.9 -7.8 94 0.9 -7.3 248 59 308.1 308.7 288.5 319.2 3.54 10 550 4910 -11.7 -13.1 89 1.4 -12.2 251 68 310.2 310.6 288.2 318.3 2.53 11 500 5634 -15.2 -16.8 87 1.6 -15.7 242 76 314.5 314.9 289.1 321.2 2.05 12 450 6425 -19.5 -21.3 85 1.8 -20.0 227 81 318.8 319.1 290.0 324.0 1.55 13 400 7289 -25.8 -28.2 80 2.4 -26.3 223 87 321.4 321.6 290.2 324.7 0.94 14 350 8240 -33.7 -36.8 74 3.0 -34.1 225 87 323.3 323.4 290.3 325.0 0.47 15 300 9299 -43.5 -47.5 65 3.9 -43.7 232 96 324.0 324.0 290.2 324.7 0.18 16 250 10500 -51.6 239 107 329.3 17 200 11923 -57.4 239 101 341.8 18 150 13744 -58.0 254 99 370.2 19 100 16221 -70.6 253 82 391.3 Yeah but looking at the sim radar by 27 our death band is gone anyway so we'd likely be done accumulating in these marginal temps. We need 24 to be good.....it looks super marginal in Silver Spring so I'm assuming DCA not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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