Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 00z GFS/NAM loved S-C VA-NC for convection/strong uplift. This may have hurt the QPF further north. We saw this problem last year in the March bust. But, all of the other models do not have this as strong/focused. Conditions are favorable for strong VVs... but... in what form? Edit: I see 6z NAM is not as robust down here..ahem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The friggin NAM is stuck on 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Clearly all or nothing for you man...northern burbs would do okay should the faster, more convective S VA solutions end up correct (00z GFS/NAM). But...if they are wrong...paste job! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The friggin NAM is stuck on 36. precip ends around 1pm or so for us...it is a way better run than 0z in every aspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 precip ends around 1pm or so for us...it is a way better run than 0z in every aspect Thank i just saw that it finally went to 39, this is looking much better than 6 hours ago. 1.1" QPF looks like 1.2" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thank i just saw that it finally went to 39, this is looking much better than 6 hours ago. it's like the euro now...IF the NAM/Euro are correct it is complete destruction for the elevated NW burbs....DC is tricky..but as depicted would be good for 3-5" probably...but the margin for error is minute....It is entirely feasible that DC gets nada or a mangled 0.5".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In a high QPF scenario I am much happier with a warm nose at 850mb than at 950mb.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 it's like the euro now...IF the NAM/Euro are correct it is complete destruction for the elevated NW burbs....DC is tricky..but as depicted would be good for 3-5" probably...but the margin for error is minute....It is entirely feasible that DC gets nada or a mangled 0.5".... It is the Euro/Rgem/Nam combo, that is pretty decent to have on your side. I would be very surprised if the GFS did not come around by 12Z to a similar solution. If the rates are like those 3 are showing you will do fine in DC. Looks like 6 a.m. is snow for me and between 7 and 8 for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It is the Euro/Rgem/Nam combo, that is pretty decent to have on your side. I would be very surprised if the GFS did not come around by 12Z to a similar solution. If the rates are like those 3 are showing you will do fine in DC. Looks like 6 a.m. is snow for me and between 7 and 8 for you. The big problem is the models may all be too cold......which would screw those of us with no margin for error.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The big problem is the models may all be too cold......which would screw those of us with no margin for error.... True but that is always a worry down here before a storm like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Good god. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WWA up for the PA counties on the other side of the Mason Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WWA up for the PA counties on the other side of the Mason Dixon line. CTP is clueless with 2-4". Not sure what they are looking at. LWX has HGR at 4-9" in the text data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Florida I mean Roanoke Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 New to the board, but was just curious as to what it would it would take or have to happen to get some colder air filtering down here to Roanoke? Or i guess just wondering if it's even possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 New to the board, but was just curious as to what it would it would take or have to happen to get some colder air filtering down here to Roanoke? Or i guess just wondering if it's even possible? As I posted earlier... it is all about the frontal passage... too soon and the storm stays to our south (Balt)... and slow and the low goes to the north. Right now we (Balt) have to worry about the front being too slow... so down there... really no chance IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 New to the board, but was just curious as to what it would it would take or have to happen to get some colder air filtering down here to Roanoke? Or i guess just wondering if it's even possible?[/quote ] hi from lynchburg. We have no shot in getting it on the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z GFS looked improved from 0z to my eye at a quick glance for some of the area. Nothing like the Euro apparently looked or the 6z NAM though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The nam was a positive american move in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The nam was a positive american move in the right directionstrongly agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z nam has .855 qpf snow for Westminster GFS is half that with .43 qpf snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still not sure what to think on this. Models are trying to convince me that I could get 2" or so but I've been down that road before. Y'all can tell me how wrong I am but if I get too much above 50-55 today I know what will happen IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 6z nam has .855 qpf snow for Westminster GFS is half that with .43 qpf snow Either way it looks pretty decent up there for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looks like I'm getting 1" of slop at best. Cool with me, I'm now focused on Friday/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still not sure what to think on this. Models are trying to convince me that I could get 2" or so but I've been down that road before. Y'all can tell me how wrong I am but if I get too much above 50-55 today I know what will happen IMBY Whether it accumulates or not it sure does sound like a period of some heavy snow tv for most.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Either way it looks pretty decent up there for you. It is looking that way. Prob gonna work from home tomorrow as it could be snowing by daybreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still not sure what to think on this. Models are trying to convince me that I could get 2" or so but I've been down that road before. Y'all can tell me how wrong I am but if I get too much above 50-55 today I know what will happen IMBY Latest RAP backed off highs today. Last night's runs were showing highs into the mid 60s here. Now it looks like upper 50s to near 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 WBAL only had temps from 44-50 today. I think that is a little low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The nam was a positive american move in the right direction The 06Z nam was...so was the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 06Z nam was...so was the euro. Tough call for cwg. 1-11 inches ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'll know by 7am whether I'm in trouble or not. If i'm in trouble I'll have to chase. Prob take less than 30 mins to get there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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