mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Westminster is best, 1" and all below freezing. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's not Ryan mahue fault that weatherbell map is showing 8 inches for dca. Its the German guy who designed the euro Thanks for posting the raw output Ji. That'd definitely be wet snow given the rates advertised by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dude, i'm running on a fifth of gin, i'll probably punt at least 3 more times I know you were never out regardless. Close shaves are what they are in our area. Seeing 1"+ qpf amounts being tossed around with oh so close thermals is an always in situation..8+ in 6 hours is pretty sick if you believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Boston gets crushed on mid week storm and we get a lot of ice before the change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know you were never out regardless. Close shaves are what they are in our area. Seeing 1"+ qpf amounts being tossed around with oh so close thermals is an always in situation. .8+ in 6 hours is pretty sick if you believe it. You're right, but I'm probably as pessimistic as I've ever been for a storm this winter, and you know I'm probably second to winterwxluvr for rosey outlooks. I dunno...final solution will probably be a pasting for you and ji while I'm looking at asphalt with a mix of rain/snow switching every so often with barely any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I was out all evening, but other than the fact that this is such a precarious setup for the cities and close in burbs, I'm not sure why everyone punted based on the NAM which hasn't gotten a thermal profile right in its life....GFS is really not much different than before....and now the Euro, verbatim, is complete destruction for most people...of course it is good to keep 12/10 and 3/6 in our minds...because it is possible the models are all too cold and/or wet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You're right, but I'm probably as pessimistic as I've ever been for a storm this winter, and you know I'm probably second to winterwxluvr for rosey outlooks. I dunno...final solution will probably be a pasting for you and ji while I'm looking at asphalt with a mix of rain/snow switching every so often with barely any accumulation. I am pessimistic too..as we should be, but I have never changed my opinion based on the NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You're right, but I'm probably as pessimistic as I've ever been for a storm this winter, and you know I'm probably second to winterwxluvr for rosey outlooks. I dunno...final solution will probably be a pasting for you and ji while I'm looking at asphalt with a mix of rain/snow switching every so often with barely any accumulation. I set my bar at 1-2 if I can measure in time but most importantly seeing +sn with low vis for an hour or 2. I know I hold a slight climo advantage to you dc guys but not by much. Odds are if I'm seeing +sn you will be shortly after with this one. If it fails next weekend is starting to look tasty again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The euro has more accumulated snow next by next weekend than it did 3 days ago when weatherboy posted that viral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am pessimistic too..as we should be, but I have never changed my opinion based on the NAM..... The last 2 euro runs are encouraging if nothing else. I kinda don't care about surface temps and measurements if the majority of .8 in six hours falls as snow. SnowTV ratings will be pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice storm coming. Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wonder what schools are going to do on Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any substantial differences on the 3z SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wonder what schools are going to do on Monday.. Fauquier - closed through PD3 Fairfax - early dismissal at 9am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any substantial differences on the 3z SREF? I couldn't see any huge changes, but I desperately need to sleep in a Holiday Inn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I couldn't see any huge changes, but I desperately need to sleep in a Holiday Inn 850s were a smidge better IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any substantial differences on the 3z SREF? no...but it is still slower than the NAM which is good...the NAM basically had us finished at 11am....versus the Euro around 2-3pm.....which makes a big difference....and why the euro is better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 850s were a smidge better IMO Link to SREF dca plumes http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140202&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM went full on collapse. Way wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 06z NAM MUCH better... close to 00z EURO... perhaps smidge colder in upper air? Possible rush hour impact (7am to noon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM'ED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM went full on collapse. Way wetter. Looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM'ED You gotta start the with the NAM. Now i am tempted to stay up for the 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 00z GFS/NAM loved S-C VA-NC for convection/strong uplift. This may have hurt the QPF further north. We saw this problem last year in the March bust. But, all of the other models do not have this as strong/focused. Conditions are favorable for strong VVs... but... in what form? Edit: I see 6z NAM is not as robust down here..ahem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You gotta start the with the NAM. Now i am tempted to stay up for the 6Z GFS. If you feel like staying up at least another hour... sure It's a GREAT run for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 If you feel like staying up at least another hour... sure It's a GREAT run for us 4:35 may be pushing it since i have 30 people coming to my house for a big SB party tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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