mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 a lot better than what mitch said. I'd be back in for that. what I said wasn't really any different than what meddler said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 2 hours ago (actually 2 minutes ago) you punted. welcome back! Dude, i'm running on a fifth of gin, i'll probably punt at least 3 more times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Deformation zone RIGHT over DC 12z. Look at the streamlines at 850mb. Also notice the models are picking up on convective banding and hence the kooky height contours during that time. The temp profiles will be screwy within this zone. Getting into this zone will flash over any light rain to heavy wet snow that piles quickly. Thanks HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Deformation zone RIGHT over DC 12z. Look at the streamlines at 850mb. Also notice the models are picking up on convective banding and hence the kooky height contours during that time. The temp profiles will be screwy within this zone. Getting into this zone will flash over any light rain to heavy wet snow that piles quickly. That sounds awesome. Randy is definitely back in now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ GFs-->850mb-->Relative Humidity (for streamlines) and then check out 850mb VVs and heights. QPF field is jacked on GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dude, i'm running on a fifth of gin, i'll probably punt at least 3 more times You have to get to AA before your liver falls down the toilet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's not Ryan mahue fault that weatherbell map is showing 8 inches for dca. Its the German guy who designed the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Deformation zone RIGHT over DC 12z. Look at the streamlines at 850mb. Also notice the models are picking up on convective banding and hence the kooky height contours during that time. The temp profiles will be screwy within this zone. Getting into this zone will flash over any light rain to heavy wet snow that piles quickly. How much for DC? MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Westminster is best, 1" and all below freezing. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's not Ryan mahue fault that weatherbell map is showing 8 inches for dca. Its the German guy who designed the euro Thanks for posting the raw output Ji. That'd definitely be wet snow given the rates advertised by the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dude, i'm running on a fifth of gin, i'll probably punt at least 3 more times I know you were never out regardless. Close shaves are what they are in our area. Seeing 1"+ qpf amounts being tossed around with oh so close thermals is an always in situation..8+ in 6 hours is pretty sick if you believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Boston gets crushed on mid week storm and we get a lot of ice before the change to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know you were never out regardless. Close shaves are what they are in our area. Seeing 1"+ qpf amounts being tossed around with oh so close thermals is an always in situation. .8+ in 6 hours is pretty sick if you believe it. You're right, but I'm probably as pessimistic as I've ever been for a storm this winter, and you know I'm probably second to winterwxluvr for rosey outlooks. I dunno...final solution will probably be a pasting for you and ji while I'm looking at asphalt with a mix of rain/snow switching every so often with barely any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You're right, but I'm probably as pessimistic as I've ever been for a storm this winter, and you know I'm probably second to winterwxluvr for rosey outlooks. I dunno...final solution will probably be a pasting for you and ji while I'm looking at asphalt with a mix of rain/snow switching every so often with barely any accumulation. I set my bar at 1-2 if I can measure in time but most importantly seeing +sn with low vis for an hour or 2. I know I hold a slight climo advantage to you dc guys but not by much. Odds are if I'm seeing +sn you will be shortly after with this one. If it fails next weekend is starting to look tasty again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The euro has more accumulated snow next by next weekend than it did 3 days ago when weatherboy posted that viral Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I am pessimistic too..as we should be, but I have never changed my opinion based on the NAM..... The last 2 euro runs are encouraging if nothing else. I kinda don't care about surface temps and measurements if the majority of .8 in six hours falls as snow. SnowTV ratings will be pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Nice storm coming. Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover33 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I wonder what schools are going to do on Monday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any substantial differences on the 3z SREF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Any substantial differences on the 3z SREF? I couldn't see any huge changes, but I desperately need to sleep in a Holiday Inn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I couldn't see any huge changes, but I desperately need to sleep in a Holiday Inn 850s were a smidge better IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 850s were a smidge better IMO Link to SREF dca plumes http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20140202&RT=03&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=4&mLAT=37.77478874678&mLON=-96.042896875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM went full on collapse. Way wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 06z NAM MUCH better... close to 00z EURO... perhaps smidge colder in upper air? Possible rush hour impact (7am to noon) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM went full on collapse. Way wetter. Looks amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM'ED You gotta start the with the NAM. Now i am tempted to stay up for the 6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The 00z GFS/NAM loved S-C VA-NC for convection/strong uplift. This may have hurt the QPF further north. We saw this problem last year in the March bust. But, all of the other models do not have this as strong/focused. Conditions are favorable for strong VVs... but... in what form? Edit: I see 6z NAM is not as robust down here..ahem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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