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Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II


DDweatherman

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I imagine the flood guidance in south central Virginia will be strong with all that rain down there.

The silver lining is that even with my inch and a half of solid rain with glop at the end, I wont have any flooding. We dont have to worry about ten inches of snow melting :axe:

 

On the positive side of the ledger. the CMC shows Leesburg solidly in the heavy snow.

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That is a snow sounding at DCA at 36... barely... but snow if rates are strong enough

 

And at 39

With surface temps 34 or 35.  Actually, there is an elevated warm layer too though it's less than a degree above zero so it might support snow if the 34 or 35 degree surface temps allow it.  It's still 35 at 18Z. 

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With surface temps 34 or 35.  Actually, there is an elevated warm layer too though it's less than a degree above zero so it might support snow if the 34 or 35 degree surface temps allow it.  It's still 35 at 18Z. 

 

Really?  The sounding I see shows DCA at 0.5C air temp at 1000mb at 36 hrs (7am) and -0.4C at 39 hrs (10am)

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Really?  The sounding I see shows DCA at 0.5C air temp at 1000mb at 36 hrs (7am) and -0.4C at 39 hrs (10am)

Here's 36hrs when you said it was snowing.

Date: 36 hour AVN valid 12Z MON  3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude:   38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1012    63   1.3   0.5  94  0.8   0.9  17  10 273.5 274.1 273.5 284.0  3.90  1 1000   162   0.5  -0.1  95  0.7   0.3  19  16 273.7 274.3 273.4 283.9  3.78  2  950   571  -1.9  -2.3  97  0.4  -2.1  29  23 275.3 275.8 273.8 284.5  3.39  3  900  1003  -0.5  -0.8  98  0.3  -0.6  38  13 281.0 281.7 277.7 292.2  4.01  4  850  1461   0.9   0.8  99  0.2   0.8 177   3 287.1 288.0 281.6 300.6  4.76  5  800  1949   0.9   0.7  98  0.2   0.8 211  18 292.1 293.0 284.1 306.7  5.02  6  750  2468  -0.3  -0.5  98  0.2  -0.4 216  29 296.3 297.2 285.6 310.8  4.92  7  700  3019  -1.4  -1.6  99  0.2  -1.5 223  42 300.9 301.8 287.3 315.6  4.86  8  650  3609  -3.1  -3.4  98  0.3  -3.3 229  52 305.4 306.3 288.6 319.4  4.57  9  600  4239  -6.3  -6.7  97  0.3  -6.5 231  58 308.8 309.5 289.0 320.9  3.87 10  550  4915 -10.3 -10.7  97  0.4 -10.5 235  63 311.9 312.4 289.3 321.7  3.07 11  500  5643 -15.3 -15.6  97  0.3 -15.4 236  63 314.4 314.9 289.3 321.9  2.27 12  450  6430 -20.9 -21.0  99  0.1 -20.9 234  66 317.0 317.3 289.5 322.3  1.59 13  400  7290 -26.9 -27.1  97  0.3 -26.9 228  77 320.1 320.3 289.9 323.7  1.03 14  350  8239 -34.4 -34.5 100  0.0 -34.4 227  88 322.3 322.4 290.1 324.4  0.59 15  300  9295 -43.4 -43.8  96  0.3 -43.5 230 101 324.1 324.2 290.3 325.1  0.26 16  250 10492 -54.0 -54.1  99  0.1 -54.1 233 118 325.7 325.7 290.6 326.1  0.10 17  200 11897 -59.3 -61.2  78  2.0 -59.3 242 135 338.9 338.9 294.1 339.1  0.05 18  150 13730 -55.9 -72.1  11 16.3 -56.2 257  94 373.8 373.8 301.2 373.9  0.01 19  100 16206 -71.7 -78.9  33  7.2 -71.8 247  93 389.2 389.2 303.7 389.2  0.01

I suspect it would be snowing by 39 hrs but the wxbell maps show sfc temps around 34 and then they raise it to 35 at 18Z when the rates start diminishing.  Besides that,  the models raw data usually is a little cold compared to DCA. 

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I've been lurking here for years and I don't get the constant bashing of areas north of DC and Balt. I personally have never ripped on anyone north south east or west of me.I really enjoy the analysis on here and have learned much from it but this banter stuff is just getting old. Sorry in advance

 

They get bitter when the northern counties get snow all the time and DC does not... where most of the poster are  from (DC)... This is one of the reasons I moved away from the bay and 14 miles north of Baltimore... With all of these runs... I still look fine.  Hell, I still have some snow cover.

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They get bitter when the northern counties get snow all the time and DC does not... where most of the poster are  from (DC)... This is one of the reasons I moved away from the bay and 14 miles north of Baltimore... With all of these runs... I still look fine.  Hell, I still have some snow cover.

This may be true, but to be fair, most of the analysis in these threads comes from folks close to DC. So I can understand why Beltway/DC folks are frustrated and disappointed.

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