yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With surface temps 34 or 35. Actually, there is an elevated warm layer too though it's less than a degree above zero so it might support snow if the 34 or 35 degree surface temps allow it. It's still 35 at 18Z. Really? The sounding I see shows DCA at 0.5C air temp at 1000mb at 36 hrs (7am) and -0.4C at 39 hrs (10am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 End our misery Can you wait two hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winchester, Fredrick, Westminster, MG's House.. what else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Really? The sounding I see shows DCA at 0.5C air temp at 1000mb at 36 hrs (7am) and -0.4C at 39 hrs (10am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 two rain storms with >0.75qpf in early Feb. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I cant see how 36 hr on GFS would be snow for DC..maybe shortly thereafter....deff a bit better for Baltimore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Really? The sounding I see shows DCA at 0.5C air temp at 1000mb at 36 hrs (7am) and -0.4C at 39 hrs (10am) Here's 36hrs when you said it was snowing. Date: 36 hour AVN valid 12Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1012 63 1.3 0.5 94 0.8 0.9 17 10 273.5 274.1 273.5 284.0 3.90 1 1000 162 0.5 -0.1 95 0.7 0.3 19 16 273.7 274.3 273.4 283.9 3.78 2 950 571 -1.9 -2.3 97 0.4 -2.1 29 23 275.3 275.8 273.8 284.5 3.39 3 900 1003 -0.5 -0.8 98 0.3 -0.6 38 13 281.0 281.7 277.7 292.2 4.01 4 850 1461 0.9 0.8 99 0.2 0.8 177 3 287.1 288.0 281.6 300.6 4.76 5 800 1949 0.9 0.7 98 0.2 0.8 211 18 292.1 293.0 284.1 306.7 5.02 6 750 2468 -0.3 -0.5 98 0.2 -0.4 216 29 296.3 297.2 285.6 310.8 4.92 7 700 3019 -1.4 -1.6 99 0.2 -1.5 223 42 300.9 301.8 287.3 315.6 4.86 8 650 3609 -3.1 -3.4 98 0.3 -3.3 229 52 305.4 306.3 288.6 319.4 4.57 9 600 4239 -6.3 -6.7 97 0.3 -6.5 231 58 308.8 309.5 289.0 320.9 3.87 10 550 4915 -10.3 -10.7 97 0.4 -10.5 235 63 311.9 312.4 289.3 321.7 3.07 11 500 5643 -15.3 -15.6 97 0.3 -15.4 236 63 314.4 314.9 289.3 321.9 2.27 12 450 6430 -20.9 -21.0 99 0.1 -20.9 234 66 317.0 317.3 289.5 322.3 1.59 13 400 7290 -26.9 -27.1 97 0.3 -26.9 228 77 320.1 320.3 289.9 323.7 1.03 14 350 8239 -34.4 -34.5 100 0.0 -34.4 227 88 322.3 322.4 290.1 324.4 0.59 15 300 9295 -43.4 -43.8 96 0.3 -43.5 230 101 324.1 324.2 290.3 325.1 0.26 16 250 10492 -54.0 -54.1 99 0.1 -54.1 233 118 325.7 325.7 290.6 326.1 0.10 17 200 11897 -59.3 -61.2 78 2.0 -59.3 242 135 338.9 338.9 294.1 339.1 0.05 18 150 13730 -55.9 -72.1 11 16.3 -56.2 257 94 373.8 373.8 301.2 373.9 0.01 19 100 16206 -71.7 -78.9 33 7.2 -71.8 247 93 389.2 389.2 303.7 389.2 0.01 I suspect it would be snowing by 39 hrs but the wxbell maps show sfc temps around 34 and then they raise it to 35 at 18Z when the rates start diminishing. Besides that, the models raw data usually is a little cold compared to DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've been lurking here for years and I don't get the constant bashing of areas north of DC and Balt. I personally have never ripped on anyone north south east or west of me.I really enjoy the analysis on here and have learned much from it but this banter stuff is just getting old. Sorry in advance They get bitter when the northern counties get snow all the time and DC does not... where most of the poster are from (DC)... This is one of the reasons I moved away from the bay and 14 miles north of Baltimore... With all of these runs... I still look fine. Hell, I still have some snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Here is the skew-T at 36 hours from the GFS. That warm nose at 800 to 850 would make it rain? http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=GFS&STATIONID=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's human nature to hate people who win all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Here is the skew-T at 36 hours from the GFS. That warm nose at 800 to 850 would make it rain? http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=GFS&STATIONID=kdca Looked like snow to me... but according to Wes, it is rain (sounds like he is saying that, though he did not say it directly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 They get bitter when the northern counties get snow all the time and DC does not... where most of the poster are from (DC)... This is one of the reasons I moved away from the bay and 14 miles north of Baltimore... With all of these runs... I still look fine. Hell, I still have some snow cover. This may be true, but to be fair, most of the analysis in these threads comes from folks close to DC. So I can understand why Beltway/DC folks are frustrated and disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've been lurking here for years and I don't get the constant bashing of areas north of DC and Balt. I personally have never ripped on anyone north south east or west of me.I really enjoy the analysis on here and have learned much from it but this banter stuff is just getting old. Sorry in advance We dont mean to bash the northern counties. It is just that this winter things have set up so that well north of DC and Balto have seen most of the really major snow action. It would be nice if we all got to enjoy a couple overrunning events that dumped a general 5 to 7 inches on everyone in the mid atlantic. Best of luck on your snow. Carroll County looks set to receive at least 10 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This may be true, but to be fair, most of the analysis in these threads comes from folks close to DC. So I can understand why Beltway/DC folks are frustrated and disappointed. I do not disagree with you at all... I hate when someone to my north get snow and I do not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Looked like snow to me... but according to Wes, it is rain (sounds like he is saying that, though he did not say it directly) Yeah, me too. I defer to Wes of course but with rates, I would have thought it'd be wet snow. If rates lightened up, it'd transition back to light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winchester, Fredrick, Westminster, MG's House.. what else is new? Sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No one hates anyone over snow. But you guys should stop telling us not to worry 2 days out and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I do not disagree with you at all... I hate when someone to my north get snow and I do not. Yep, I am often envious of Westminster...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sorry Don't be sorry... be happy that someone in the area is getting snow... It sucks for some, but some people live where they do, just because they want snow. I know I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 DC still has a chance here for something, obviously big accums off the table but I could see 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No one hates anyone over snow. But you guys should stop telling us not to worry 2 days out and such. If i was you i would be worried, hell i am worried and i am sitting in a much better spot than you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 This is my snowfall map...Based on everything its what I think...feedback?..sorry for the big image but if you click on it, it will show the entire map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Fwiw, NCEP 850mb and instantweathermaps 2m temps both looks colder http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020200&time=INSTANT&var=TMAX&hour=039 than 18Z http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014020118&time=3&var=TMAX&hour=045 for 15Z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The air right now won't do it and waiting for the storm to bring in the cold is rough and difficult to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The air right now won't do it and waiting for the storm to bring in the cold is rough and difficult to forecast. Thanks for that insight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Mid 60s tomorrow on the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Everyone is being too bitter. City will probably see 1-2 and inner suburbs 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 No EURO news yet? Hmm...seems many lost interest on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Its wetter and marginally colder Isn't that slightly better for us compared to the 12z run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Its wetter and marginally colder Everyone has forgotten about the euro in tonight's debacle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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