yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 ~13mm snow per DC meteogram re 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Slurping maple syrup and watching hockey, let's go Canadians! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hi-Res NAM: I'll take that and run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 CMC is a little better. Rain/Snow line south of DC by 10AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I imagine the flood guidance in south central Virginia will be strong with all that rain down there. The silver lining is that even with my inch and a half of solid rain with glop at the end, I wont have any flooding. We dont have to worry about ten inches of snow melting On the positive side of the ledger. the CMC shows Leesburg solidly in the heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Hi-Res NAM: I'll take that and run. I can't believe I'm actually neurotic enough that I tried to see how many shades below purple my backyard was In any case, looks very good to me and I'll take it in a heartbeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That is a snow sounding at DCA at 36... barely... but snow if rates are strong enough And at 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That is a snow sounding at DCA at 36... barely... but snow if rates are strong enough And at 39 Are we talking the GFS here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Are we talking the GFS here? No.... the CRAS Yes, the GFS, duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We suck We're done dude. It's iver. I'm drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We suck Spring will be here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That is a snow sounding at DCA at 36... barely... but snow if rates are strong enough And at 39 With surface temps 34 or 35. Actually, there is an elevated warm layer too though it's less than a degree above zero so it might support snow if the 34 or 35 degree surface temps allow it. It's still 35 at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAsnowlvr82 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Spring will be here soon. Exactly why a snow and cold thread was created! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 That's a bit meh, but I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 End our misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Exactly why a snow and cold thread was created! And thank God for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 With surface temps 34 or 35. Actually, there is an elevated warm layer too though it's less than a degree above zero so it might support snow if the 34 or 35 degree surface temps allow it. It's still 35 at 18Z. Really? The sounding I see shows DCA at 0.5C air temp at 1000mb at 36 hrs (7am) and -0.4C at 39 hrs (10am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 End our misery Can you wait two hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Winchester, Fredrick, Westminster, MG's House.. what else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Really? The sounding I see shows DCA at 0.5C air temp at 1000mb at 36 hrs (7am) and -0.4C at 39 hrs (10am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 two rain storms with >0.75qpf in early Feb. Bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I cant see how 36 hr on GFS would be snow for DC..maybe shortly thereafter....deff a bit better for Baltimore though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Really? The sounding I see shows DCA at 0.5C air temp at 1000mb at 36 hrs (7am) and -0.4C at 39 hrs (10am) Here's 36hrs when you said it was snowing. Date: 36 hour AVN valid 12Z MON 3 FEB 14Station: KDCALatitude: 38.85Longitude: -77.03-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------SFC 1012 63 1.3 0.5 94 0.8 0.9 17 10 273.5 274.1 273.5 284.0 3.90 1 1000 162 0.5 -0.1 95 0.7 0.3 19 16 273.7 274.3 273.4 283.9 3.78 2 950 571 -1.9 -2.3 97 0.4 -2.1 29 23 275.3 275.8 273.8 284.5 3.39 3 900 1003 -0.5 -0.8 98 0.3 -0.6 38 13 281.0 281.7 277.7 292.2 4.01 4 850 1461 0.9 0.8 99 0.2 0.8 177 3 287.1 288.0 281.6 300.6 4.76 5 800 1949 0.9 0.7 98 0.2 0.8 211 18 292.1 293.0 284.1 306.7 5.02 6 750 2468 -0.3 -0.5 98 0.2 -0.4 216 29 296.3 297.2 285.6 310.8 4.92 7 700 3019 -1.4 -1.6 99 0.2 -1.5 223 42 300.9 301.8 287.3 315.6 4.86 8 650 3609 -3.1 -3.4 98 0.3 -3.3 229 52 305.4 306.3 288.6 319.4 4.57 9 600 4239 -6.3 -6.7 97 0.3 -6.5 231 58 308.8 309.5 289.0 320.9 3.87 10 550 4915 -10.3 -10.7 97 0.4 -10.5 235 63 311.9 312.4 289.3 321.7 3.07 11 500 5643 -15.3 -15.6 97 0.3 -15.4 236 63 314.4 314.9 289.3 321.9 2.27 12 450 6430 -20.9 -21.0 99 0.1 -20.9 234 66 317.0 317.3 289.5 322.3 1.59 13 400 7290 -26.9 -27.1 97 0.3 -26.9 228 77 320.1 320.3 289.9 323.7 1.03 14 350 8239 -34.4 -34.5 100 0.0 -34.4 227 88 322.3 322.4 290.1 324.4 0.59 15 300 9295 -43.4 -43.8 96 0.3 -43.5 230 101 324.1 324.2 290.3 325.1 0.26 16 250 10492 -54.0 -54.1 99 0.1 -54.1 233 118 325.7 325.7 290.6 326.1 0.10 17 200 11897 -59.3 -61.2 78 2.0 -59.3 242 135 338.9 338.9 294.1 339.1 0.05 18 150 13730 -55.9 -72.1 11 16.3 -56.2 257 94 373.8 373.8 301.2 373.9 0.01 19 100 16206 -71.7 -78.9 33 7.2 -71.8 247 93 389.2 389.2 303.7 389.2 0.01 I suspect it would be snowing by 39 hrs but the wxbell maps show sfc temps around 34 and then they raise it to 35 at 18Z when the rates start diminishing. Besides that, the models raw data usually is a little cold compared to DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I've been lurking here for years and I don't get the constant bashing of areas north of DC and Balt. I personally have never ripped on anyone north south east or west of me.I really enjoy the analysis on here and have learned much from it but this banter stuff is just getting old. Sorry in advance They get bitter when the northern counties get snow all the time and DC does not... where most of the poster are from (DC)... This is one of the reasons I moved away from the bay and 14 miles north of Baltimore... With all of these runs... I still look fine. Hell, I still have some snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Here is the skew-T at 36 hours from the GFS. That warm nose at 800 to 850 would make it rain? http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=GFS&STATIONID=kdca Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's human nature to hate people who win all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Here is the skew-T at 36 hours from the GFS. That warm nose at 800 to 850 would make it rain? http://beta.wxcaster.com/cgi-bin/parse_skewt_trace_all.cgi?model=GFS&STATIONID=kdca Looked like snow to me... but according to Wes, it is rain (sounds like he is saying that, though he did not say it directly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 They get bitter when the northern counties get snow all the time and DC does not... where most of the poster are from (DC)... This is one of the reasons I moved away from the bay and 14 miles north of Baltimore... With all of these runs... I still look fine. Hell, I still have some snow cover. This may be true, but to be fair, most of the analysis in these threads comes from folks close to DC. So I can understand why Beltway/DC folks are frustrated and disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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