nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at 12 hrs, the oz run is slower again with moving the front east vs. 18 z it'll never make it to the east coast at this rate By 27 hours, the 850 line looks identical to 18z at 33 (which isn't saying much since the 18z run was pretty terrible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 By 27 hours, the 850 line looks identical to 18z at 33 (which isn't saying much since the 18z run was pretty terrible). hopefully it continues its increased speed east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 hopefully it continues its increased speed east Isn't slower better because it gives the front time to advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lashing out won't make it snow Still wet and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still wet and cold? http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Isn't slower better because it gives the front time to advance? I'm talking about the frontal passage...we all want that to move through this is basically a wave on the southern end of a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't put much stock in the SREF, but that was a beautiful run. Freezing line at 850 in here by 1 a.m., at the surface by 4 a.m. NAM shows exactly this too, but with more RASN before temps get right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 By 27 hours, the 850 line looks identical to 18z at 33 (which isn't saying much since the 18z run was pretty terrible). umm, ncep maps are out and no, it is slower with moving the front through than 12z this run will not be pretty methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Warmer than 18z... Terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 by 33h a bit warmer but also noticeably slower with getting heavy rates to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 by 33h a bit warmer but also noticeably slower with getting heavy rates to dc the qpf is heavier at 33hrs on this run vs. 39 hr panel on 18z run....compare the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 850 line passes DC between 7a and 10a. At 10a, its down near EZF or just north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 by 33h a bit warmer but also noticeably slower with getting heavy rates to dc Actually, according to the NCEP maps, the rates are heavier at 33 hrs. Warmer, yes. More rain. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 umm, ncep maps are out and no, it is slower with moving the front through than 12z this run will not be pretty methinks I was looking at instantweathermaps. It looked pretty similar but maybe I was looking at a wrong panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Changeover probably a little after 15z in DC, but the storm is basically over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah a sucky run deff from Baltimore-south..Still OK for folks near PA line...tough forecast..On this run DC probably gets hardly any white rain..Baltimore, a little. Still probably 4-5 inches near PA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Terrible run. Still no improvement for the general DCA area.. Rain to white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at least we can hang our hats on the fact that it's the NAM at 36 hrs, but the fact that it keeps slowing the frontal passage is alarming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There is where threading the needle comes in to effect. If the front passes by to quick, then the low runs to far south... if the front passes to slow... the low comes to far north... we need to find that fine line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Doesn't matter till the doctor checks in tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah a sucky run deff from Baltimore-south..Still OK for folks near PA line...tough forecast..On this run DC probably gets hardly any white rain..Baltimore, a little. Still probably 4-5 inches near PA line it's not going to be easy anywhere to get those accumulations outside the mts. if this run of the NAM is correct because even up north the temps are marginal and they won't have great rates like DCA/BWI get and the qpf drops off dramatically as you get north of Balt. City Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Doesn't matter till the doctor checks in tonight we're going to need a Dr. of Psychiatry after the NAM, Dr. of Proctology, just did its thing on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at least we can hang our hats on the fact that it's the NAM at 36 hrs, but the fact that it keeps slowing the frontal passage is alarming But hasn't that been the trend generally with most models? A move toward wetter and warmer? Slower dropping of the cold front and a slow but progressive amping of the qpf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 we're going to need a Dr. of Psychiatry after the NAM, Dr. of Proctology, just did its thing on us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well folks. Here's hoping the 00z gfs and euro come along with a "Psyche! Just kidding." And show cold front passage well before the heavy qpf. I won't know till morning because it is past my bedtime. Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Decent map from CWG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00z RGEM at 36 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif 48 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Meteogram for DC in a few RGEM precip maps on meteocentre bring heaviest precip through DC region in the 15z and 18z time period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 00z RGEM at 36 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/513_100.gif 48 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/520_100.gif Meteogram for DC in a few RGEM precip maps on meteocentre bring heaviest precip through DC region in the 15z and 18z time period I can't exactly read those maps. Could anyone explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 We suckevery timeSent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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