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Monday Mauler or Monday Bawler? part II


DDweatherman

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Yeah a sucky run deff from Baltimore-south..Still OK for folks near PA line...tough forecast..On this run DC probably gets hardly any white rain..Baltimore, a little. Still probably 4-5 inches near PA line

it's not going to be easy anywhere to get those accumulations outside the mts. if this run of the NAM is correct because even up north the temps are marginal and they won't have great rates like DCA/BWI get

and the qpf drops off dramatically as you get north of Balt. City

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at least we can hang our hats on the fact that it's the NAM at 36 hrs, but the fact that it keeps slowing the frontal passage is alarming

But hasn't that been the trend generally with most models? A move toward wetter and warmer? Slower dropping of the cold front and a slow but progressive amping of the qpf?

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I imagine the flood guidance in south central Virginia will be strong with all that rain down there.

The silver lining is that even with my inch and a half of solid rain with glop at the end, I wont have any flooding. We dont have to worry about ten inches of snow melting :axe:

 

On the positive side of the ledger. the CMC shows Leesburg solidly in the heavy snow.

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That is a snow sounding at DCA at 36... barely... but snow if rates are strong enough

 

And at 39

With surface temps 34 or 35.  Actually, there is an elevated warm layer too though it's less than a degree above zero so it might support snow if the 34 or 35 degree surface temps allow it.  It's still 35 at 18Z. 

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