Fozz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Funny... I got 5 inches from the March mess when DC got basically nothing... I am not inside the beltway or the city... but thanks though. I appreciate you guys letting us know we will get nothing I understand why those inside the beltways and low elevations aren't all that giddy about a marginal storm in which the 850 line may hover right over them at the height of the storm. They've been burned way too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Where oh where is Bob Chill and his undying optimism lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREF snowfall plume mean for DC last 3 runs: 09z.....4.5 15z.....6 21z.....6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On the 21z SREF, 3 members in particular look to be skewing SREF temps (show mid 40s for the start). A lot of members are clustered in the low 30s for the timeframe we care about. I've only looked to SREFs for trends especially on QPF but never on temps. I probably shouldn't even bother looking but I like to overanalyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 the models should be able to get closer to reality with the 0z suite as the strong short wave that is the midweek storm is now right off the coast of CA/Oregon it's been my weenie opinion that it has a lot to do with what happens with the Monday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I understand why those inside the beltways and low elevations aren't all that giddy about a marginal storm in which the 850 line may hover right over them at the height of the storm. They've been burned way too many times. I know that... its certain MD posters who think that its over for DC south and Balt is the place to be... I didn't know it was Monday morning yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How does the CFSv2 look today? lashing out won't make it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know that... its certain MD posters who think that its over for DC south and Balt is the place to be... I didn't know it was Monday morning yet My point was, Balt is NOT the place to be in this set-up if you are inside 695. It just isn't. Same issues here as plague DC inside 495. I have no idea why people think we score up here in this kind of set-up. Cantore standing by the inner harbor on Dec. 10 as a drizzle fell was painfully lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I understand why those inside the beltways and low elevations aren't all that giddy about a marginal storm in which the 850 line may be right over them at the height of the storm. They've been burned way too many times. Yeah. I've still got a bad taste in my mouth from the March 6th storm. I was excited for the whole area. I got 5", but since the storm didn't play out the way I (and the rest of the meteorological community, apparently) thought it would have, I was disappointed. (Yes...I know...It's weird). Now, that I know of the marginal situation here, I'm getting a bit excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at 12 hrs, the oz run is slower again with moving the front east vs. 18 z it'll never make it to the east coast at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's shown an El Niño in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at 12 hrs, the oz run is slower again with moving the front east vs. 18 z it'll never make it to the east coast at this rate We want cold air for snow, right? I hate this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at 12 hrs, the oz run is slower again with moving the front east vs. 18 z it'll never make it to the east coast at this rate By 27 hours, the 850 line looks identical to 18z at 33 (which isn't saying much since the 18z run was pretty terrible). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 By 27 hours, the 850 line looks identical to 18z at 33 (which isn't saying much since the 18z run was pretty terrible). hopefully it continues its increased speed east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 hopefully it continues its increased speed east Isn't slower better because it gives the front time to advance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 lashing out won't make it snow Still wet and cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Still wet and cold? http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Isn't slower better because it gives the front time to advance? I'm talking about the frontal passage...we all want that to move through this is basically a wave on the southern end of a cold front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't put much stock in the SREF, but that was a beautiful run. Freezing line at 850 in here by 1 a.m., at the surface by 4 a.m. NAM shows exactly this too, but with more RASN before temps get right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 By 27 hours, the 850 line looks identical to 18z at 33 (which isn't saying much since the 18z run was pretty terrible). umm, ncep maps are out and no, it is slower with moving the front through than 12z this run will not be pretty methinks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Warmer than 18z... Terrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 by 33h a bit warmer but also noticeably slower with getting heavy rates to dc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 by 33h a bit warmer but also noticeably slower with getting heavy rates to dc the qpf is heavier at 33hrs on this run vs. 39 hr panel on 18z run....compare the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 850 line passes DC between 7a and 10a. At 10a, its down near EZF or just north of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 by 33h a bit warmer but also noticeably slower with getting heavy rates to dc Actually, according to the NCEP maps, the rates are heavier at 33 hrs. Warmer, yes. More rain. Bummer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 umm, ncep maps are out and no, it is slower with moving the front through than 12z this run will not be pretty methinks I was looking at instantweathermaps. It looked pretty similar but maybe I was looking at a wrong panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Changeover probably a little after 15z in DC, but the storm is basically over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Yeah a sucky run deff from Baltimore-south..Still OK for folks near PA line...tough forecast..On this run DC probably gets hardly any white rain..Baltimore, a little. Still probably 4-5 inches near PA line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Terrible run. Still no improvement for the general DCA area.. Rain to white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at least we can hang our hats on the fact that it's the NAM at 36 hrs, but the fact that it keeps slowing the frontal passage is alarming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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