nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There is a large amount of color fill along I-95 on the 850 maps as well... Yeah, good point...I missed that. The color fill is south of the mean, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm kinda torn on where I want to be on Monday... home or Millersville either is good really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There is a large amount of color fill along I-95 on the 850 maps as well... My apologies but what do you mean by color fill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My apologies but what do you mean by color fill? The color fill is the spread amongst the members while the lines represent the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Agreed. Lots of people are being overly pessimistic. If this was before 3/6 and 12/10 everyone would be calling for 2-4 or 3-6.Not sure I get your point. We use those events as we have learned from past experiences. If those events had not occurred, yeah, we may be more optimistic, but that would just be out of ignorance. One difference is this is early Feb and not March ((3/6), and the rates are expected to be heavier than both 12/10 and 3/6. Nonetheless, rates were supposed to save us in 3/6 but the heavy rates just never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Agreed. Lots of people are being overly pessimistic. If this was before 3/6 and 12/10 everyone would be calling for 2-4 or 3-6. I don't agree with that statement. The temperature profiles don't agree with that statement. This has come up and I believe most have put it to sleep. The data doesn't support that mind set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't agree with that statement. The temperature profiles don't agree with that statement. This has come up and I believe most have put it to sleep. The data doesn't support that mind set. Well..isn't that pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Listen, Ive said it before, I will again. If you live DC-South, you probably wont be happy with the outcome of this storm unless you like a short period of white rain that may coat the ground or provide an inch.Baltimore into Southern PA is game for a wide range of 2-8 inches south to north.Thats the bottom line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The problem with this forum is that our particular region provides such a wide varying of weather conditions within a 50 mile period that some people sound overly pessimistic and some sound overly optimistic..Our area is pretty much unlike any other in the contintental US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm kinda torn on where I want to be on Monday... home or Millersville? I'd stay in Millersville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Listen, Ive said it before, I will again. If you live DC-South, you probably wont be happy with the outcome of this storm unless you like a short period of white rain that may coat the ground or provide an inch.Baltimore into Southern PA is game for a wide range of 2-8 inches south to north.Thats the bottom line here. Thanks for letting us know... I was worried Baltimore would get all rain... I should just not look at the models at all anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well..isn't that pessimistic. Unfortunately, yes. Just going with the data supplied by the models. The trend (and I emphasize "the trend") has gone form light qpf and cold to high qpf and warm. Not one model, but a majority. The usual NW areas will do best (as usual) and the SE areas will do worst (as usual). I wish it was a rosier outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't put much stock in the SREF, but that was a beautiful run. Freezing line at 850 in here by 1 a.m., at the surface by 4 a.m. And looks like another 0.60-0.70" falls after that. Need 3" to reach climo, and this model does that and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks for letting us know... I was worried Baltimore would get all rain... I should just not look at the models at all anymore yaknow, inside the beltway, in the city, we've got a real shot at a lot of rain, yes. or white rain. non-accumulating snow. That's exactly how that mostly played out 12/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 yaknow, inside the beltway, in the city, we've got a real shot at a lot of rain, yes. or white rain. non-accumulating snow. That's exactly how that mostly played out 12/10. Funny... I got 5 inches from the March mess when DC got basically nothing... I am not inside the beltway or the city... but thanks though. I appreciate you guys letting us know we will get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Funny... I got 5 inches from the March mess when DC got basically nothing... I am not inside the beltway or the city... but thanks though. I appreciate you guys letting us know we will get nothing I didn't say you would get nothing. For all I know you will get half a foot. Pretty sure anyone outside 495 and 695 to the north or west will do pretty damn ok. if that's springfield, Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How does the CFSv2 look today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM already 50 miles slower with 850s at 12h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Funny... I got 5 inches from the March mess when DC got basically nothing... I am not inside the beltway or the city... but thanks though. I appreciate you guys letting us know we will get nothing I understand why those inside the beltways and low elevations aren't all that giddy about a marginal storm in which the 850 line may hover right over them at the height of the storm. They've been burned way too many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Where oh where is Bob Chill and his undying optimism lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREF snowfall plume mean for DC last 3 runs: 09z.....4.5 15z.....6 21z.....6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 On the 21z SREF, 3 members in particular look to be skewing SREF temps (show mid 40s for the start). A lot of members are clustered in the low 30s for the timeframe we care about. I've only looked to SREFs for trends especially on QPF but never on temps. I probably shouldn't even bother looking but I like to overanalyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 the models should be able to get closer to reality with the 0z suite as the strong short wave that is the midweek storm is now right off the coast of CA/Oregon it's been my weenie opinion that it has a lot to do with what happens with the Monday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I understand why those inside the beltways and low elevations aren't all that giddy about a marginal storm in which the 850 line may hover right over them at the height of the storm. They've been burned way too many times. I know that... its certain MD posters who think that its over for DC south and Balt is the place to be... I didn't know it was Monday morning yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How does the CFSv2 look today? lashing out won't make it snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I know that... its certain MD posters who think that its over for DC south and Balt is the place to be... I didn't know it was Monday morning yet My point was, Balt is NOT the place to be in this set-up if you are inside 695. It just isn't. Same issues here as plague DC inside 495. I have no idea why people think we score up here in this kind of set-up. Cantore standing by the inner harbor on Dec. 10 as a drizzle fell was painfully lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I understand why those inside the beltways and low elevations aren't all that giddy about a marginal storm in which the 850 line may be right over them at the height of the storm. They've been burned way too many times. Yeah. I've still got a bad taste in my mouth from the March 6th storm. I was excited for the whole area. I got 5", but since the storm didn't play out the way I (and the rest of the meteorological community, apparently) thought it would have, I was disappointed. (Yes...I know...It's weird). Now, that I know of the marginal situation here, I'm getting a bit excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at 12 hrs, the oz run is slower again with moving the front east vs. 18 z it'll never make it to the east coast at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 It's shown an El Niño in the summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 at 12 hrs, the oz run is slower again with moving the front east vs. 18 z it'll never make it to the east coast at this rate We want cold air for snow, right? I hate this hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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