olafminesaw Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREF update? you guys are slacking 1"+ qpf, and decent temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In Winter Storm Watch: Check Well Northwest of the Fall Line: Check 650' Elevation: Check I guess I'm ready to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You mean winter storm watch? Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 You mean winter storm watch? Sent from my SM-N900V Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 In Winter Storm Watch: Check Well Northwest of the Fall Line: Check 650' Elevation: Check I guess I'm ready to go. Lol, through all the bragging you got the advisory name wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dang.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I will be unhappy with the white rain (or regular cold rain). No use pretending I wouldn't be. Hoping for a surprise, expecting to be unhappy at my locale. Inside the beltway, whether it be Balt or DC is no good in these set-ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs are definitely wet but the surface line never gets to DC. 850s fall below 0 somewhere between 10a and 1p. I'm interested to see the surface temps on the plumes when they come out in a few. Maybe a few of the over amped members are skewing the surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Dang.... I'm kinda torn on where I want to be on Monday... home or Millersville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Even though the forecast is for 2-4 here, I think it will be more like an inch or 2. But I am kinda sitting this one out. I honestly don't care if I get snow or not. I got mine Tuesday night with 5 inches of sparkling fluff. SN+ at 12 degrees was awesome, and I wasn't expecting it. I am just having fun tracking the Monday storm and hoping the Immediate DC area somehow gets pasted. You guys are so overdue and this storm could do it with the intense lift that should be passing near or over DC area. I just got a feeling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 SREFs are definitely wet but the surface line never gets to DC. 850s fall below 0 somewhere between 10a and 1p. I'm interested to see the surface temps on the plumes when they come out in a few. Maybe a few of the over amped members are skewing the surface temps? There is a large amount of color fill along I-95 on the 850 maps as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Even though the forecast is for 2-4 here, I think it will be more like an inch or 2. But I am kinda sitting this one out. I honestly don't care if I get snow or not. I got mine Tuesday night with 5 inches of sparkling fluff. SN+ at 12 degrees was awesome, and I wasn't expecting it. I am just having fun tracking the Monday storm and hoping the Immediate DC area somehow gets pasted. You guys are so overdue and this storm could do it with the intense lift that should be passing near or over DC area. I just got a feeling... Agreed. Lots of people are being overly pessimistic. If this was before 3/6 and 12/10 everyone would be calling for 2-4 or 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There is a large amount of color fill along I-95 on the 850 maps as well... Yeah, good point...I missed that. The color fill is south of the mean, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm kinda torn on where I want to be on Monday... home or Millersville either is good really Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 There is a large amount of color fill along I-95 on the 850 maps as well... My apologies but what do you mean by color fill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 My apologies but what do you mean by color fill? The color fill is the spread amongst the members while the lines represent the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheesyPoofs Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Agreed. Lots of people are being overly pessimistic. If this was before 3/6 and 12/10 everyone would be calling for 2-4 or 3-6.Not sure I get your point. We use those events as we have learned from past experiences. If those events had not occurred, yeah, we may be more optimistic, but that would just be out of ignorance. One difference is this is early Feb and not March ((3/6), and the rates are expected to be heavier than both 12/10 and 3/6. Nonetheless, rates were supposed to save us in 3/6 but the heavy rates just never materialized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Agreed. Lots of people are being overly pessimistic. If this was before 3/6 and 12/10 everyone would be calling for 2-4 or 3-6. I don't agree with that statement. The temperature profiles don't agree with that statement. This has come up and I believe most have put it to sleep. The data doesn't support that mind set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't agree with that statement. The temperature profiles don't agree with that statement. This has come up and I believe most have put it to sleep. The data doesn't support that mind set. Well..isn't that pessimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Listen, Ive said it before, I will again. If you live DC-South, you probably wont be happy with the outcome of this storm unless you like a short period of white rain that may coat the ground or provide an inch.Baltimore into Southern PA is game for a wide range of 2-8 inches south to north.Thats the bottom line here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 The problem with this forum is that our particular region provides such a wide varying of weather conditions within a 50 mile period that some people sound overly pessimistic and some sound overly optimistic..Our area is pretty much unlike any other in the contintental US Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I'm kinda torn on where I want to be on Monday... home or Millersville? I'd stay in Millersville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Listen, Ive said it before, I will again. If you live DC-South, you probably wont be happy with the outcome of this storm unless you like a short period of white rain that may coat the ground or provide an inch.Baltimore into Southern PA is game for a wide range of 2-8 inches south to north.Thats the bottom line here. Thanks for letting us know... I was worried Baltimore would get all rain... I should just not look at the models at all anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Well..isn't that pessimistic. Unfortunately, yes. Just going with the data supplied by the models. The trend (and I emphasize "the trend") has gone form light qpf and cold to high qpf and warm. Not one model, but a majority. The usual NW areas will do best (as usual) and the SE areas will do worst (as usual). I wish it was a rosier outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 I don't put much stock in the SREF, but that was a beautiful run. Freezing line at 850 in here by 1 a.m., at the surface by 4 a.m. And looks like another 0.60-0.70" falls after that. Need 3" to reach climo, and this model does that and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Thanks for letting us know... I was worried Baltimore would get all rain... I should just not look at the models at all anymore yaknow, inside the beltway, in the city, we've got a real shot at a lot of rain, yes. or white rain. non-accumulating snow. That's exactly how that mostly played out 12/10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 yaknow, inside the beltway, in the city, we've got a real shot at a lot of rain, yes. or white rain. non-accumulating snow. That's exactly how that mostly played out 12/10. Funny... I got 5 inches from the March mess when DC got basically nothing... I am not inside the beltway or the city... but thanks though. I appreciate you guys letting us know we will get nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 Funny... I got 5 inches from the March mess when DC got basically nothing... I am not inside the beltway or the city... but thanks though. I appreciate you guys letting us know we will get nothing I didn't say you would get nothing. For all I know you will get half a foot. Pretty sure anyone outside 495 and 695 to the north or west will do pretty damn ok. if that's springfield, Congrats! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 How does the CFSv2 look today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 2, 2014 Share Posted February 2, 2014 NAM already 50 miles slower with 850s at 12h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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