stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 .7+ for dc and 3 degrees shy of warning criteria. I can work wirh this Wait...euro qpf is .7? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wait...euro qpf is .7? .75 exactly per Accuwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Unless it's a few degrees too cold. I suppose a couple hours of non sticking +sn is still a win. SnowTV at its finest. Just don't look at the ground and it's allgood It's a wet run and pretty close. I know you're grinding right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wait...euro qpf is .7? yeah...0.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 With the euro verbatim depiction, I think a few inches would fall around the city. QPF is very impressjve around N VA. If only the US model temps verify This is probably about as good as it gets in the cities unless the close by purples near the nc border jump and pull some cold air down. Everything shifted slightly south which sorta puts us in the max potential zone.. well, DC area up into N MD. But it has most of us mid-upper 30s at 6z and above freezing throughout. Hard to be bullish even if you double QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Wait...euro qpf is .7? Yea and 1.25 is a 45 minute drive se in driving rain. Chase? Purples man. Purples Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 yeah...0.75" yeah there was a lil more after my comment earlier which was just thru 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 BWI a hair colder than IAD, which is unusual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS temps + UKIE/EURO QPF = wet snowstorm bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yea and 1.25 is a 45 minute drive se in driving rain. Chase? Purples man. Purples richmond south is a lot closer than it seems looking at a map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS temps + UKIE/EURO QPF = wet snowstorm bomb Adversus solem ne loquitor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0z Canadian - 1.20", 2" 0z Euro - 0.75", maybe a sloppy 1-3" 12z Canadian - 1", 4-5" 12z Euro - 0.75", 1-2" 0z Canadian ENS - 0.6", 1-2" 21z SREF - 0.55", 2-3" 0z NAM - 0.50", 2-3" 12z Euro ens - 0.45", 2" 0z GFS - 0.40", 3-4" 0z GEFS - 0.40", 3-4" 12z Canadian ensembles - 0.35", 1-2" 18z GEFS - 0.35", 1-2" 12z JMA - 0.35", ? 15z SREF - 0.30", 2" 18z GFS - 0.25" - 1-2" 18z NAM - 0.25", maybe 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 darn shame whatever falls will be washed away a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Adversus solem ne loquitor Well played good sir Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 0z Canadian - 1.20", 2" 0z Euro - 0.75", maybe a sloppy 1-3" 0z Canadian ENS - 0.6", 1-2" 21z SREF - 0.55", 2-3" 0z NAM - 0.50", 2-3" 12z Euro ens - 0.45", 2" 0z GFS - 0.40", 3-4" 0z GEFS - 0.40", 3-4" 0z JMA - 0.40", ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 richmond south is a lot closer than it seems looking at a map. Yea, I was off with my contours too. Kings Dominion for 1.25 so an hour and ten for the chase. I'll buy beer but my suburban gets 12mpg so you buy the gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 darn shame whatever falls will be washed away a few days later Rain is efficient at washing away non accum snow. We live in a special place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Best case scenario at this point is 1 to 3. We have the QPF, just not the temps. Sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 euro has bwi with .22" qpf Tuesday night thru 6z with surface at 31 (next system) we ran out of models folks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro and gfs are in 2 different universes with #3. Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Euro and gfs are in 2 different universes with #3. Wow They sure are. Not even close. At least if next weekend looks decent getting through the Wed. mess will be easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I haven't looked at anything past #1, what does it show tonight? Much faster and flatter vort out of the west and disorganized precip shield out in front on friday. Verbatim we get like 2-4 through the area with no cutter or coastal. Just a hot mess that we come out winning in. Nobody gets big snow. We kinda jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Much faster and flatter vort out of the west and disorganized precip shield out in front on friday. Verbatim we get like 2-4 through the area with no cutter or coastal. Just a hot mess that we come out winning in. Nobody gets big snow. We kinda jackpot DT staked his rep on that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Has a weird storm Next Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Has a weird storm Next Sun The entire look is bizarre. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Has a weird storm Next Sun Oddly, Its kinda what I posted in the banter thread about 2 events. One out in front and one behind. But I thought the one behind would suck but it's a central va hit verbatim. For dc area its an extended period of light snow events. The differences at h5 compared to the gfs give serious pause. Especially for the gfs rain bomb. Late week is totally up in the air. Zero consensus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks. Just hoping we can produce on Monday for now. It's always fun to look ahead but concentrating on Monday is the wise thing to do. Storm #3 has too many options at this point and nothing is off the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Thanks. Just hoping we can produce on Monday for now. The only thing to think about is monday. Beyond that is only getting more complicated and unknown instead of trending the other way. Wacky week on tap. Now I'm rooting for ice on wed just for fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Oddly, Its kinda what I posted in the banter thread about 2 events. One out in front and one behind. But I thought the one behind would suck but it's a central va hit verbatim. For dc area its an extended period of light snow events. The differences at h5 compared to the gfs give serious pause. Especially for the gfs rain bomb. Late week is totally up in the air. Zero consensus Bob, when does that 2-4" fall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Bob, when does that 2-4" fall? Mitch, its a jacked up solution. It's all snow but light precip and it's more than 2-4. All 6 hour panels from 1am Saturday till 7pm Sunday show precip and its all snow.. Looks like 2 waves. Maybe .5ish or so? It's an odd run. But at least it looks nothing like the gfs Debbie downer Rainer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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