BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA NAM soundings at hr 42 don't look so bad right before the heaviest precip comes through, imo. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=724&sounding.y=301&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=42¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You got it winterwxluv, ground will still be solid frozen and radiating below top 1". Lot of yapping again this time, just like last one, about how we don't kow what is what. This is a classic rain to start, switch to snow n&w of Beltway, city up for grabs but also likely goes over to snow. Gotta get decent baro. support, >30.10 essential, 30.20 would be good, 30.25 great. problem is we arent going to see pressure rises until the event is underway...in advance of the start time, pressure will be nowhere where we need it...so where the good snow line sets up is tricky...there will probably be sharp gradients in amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Mount Holly's first stab. Its interesting, and odd. Not sure I can follow their reasoning for coming up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA NAM soundings at hr 42 don't look so bad right before the heaviest precip comes through, imo. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=724&sounding.y=301&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=42¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false 800 hot spot is ug-ly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What would you look for in a model run to indicate a chance for thundersnow? Do you need to read a skew-t for that, 700VVs? What exactly? I don't know much about severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Mount Holly's first stab. Its interesting, and odd. Not sure I can follow their reasoning for coming up with that. sno.png I think 2-4" is a fair start. Its enough to get people's attention in these parts, and they still have a few days to add if need-be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA NAM soundings at hr 42 don't look so bad right before the heaviest precip comes through, imo. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=724&sounding.y=301&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=42¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false I'm terrible with those, but that +5 between 850 and 700 isn't a problem? Can someone explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm terrible with those, but that +5 between 850 and 700 isn't a problem? Can someone explain? it's a huge problem for DC...that is a horrible sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What would you look for in a model run to indicate a chance for thundersnow? Do you need to read a skew-t for that, 700VVs? What exactly? I don't know much about severe wx. I "think" the dew point temp and actual temps do a little left, right, left (saw tooth) around 600-700mb but that's a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 800 hot spot is ug-ly Yea that's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Been out for about nine hours, what's changed? Anything? Or is this still a hot mess? Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Been out for about nine hours, what's changed? Anything? Or is this still a hot mess? Sent from my iPod touch Hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think 2-4" is a fair start. Its enough to get people's attention in these parts, and they still have a few days to add if need-be. I was referring to their dual 2-4 inch areas. Based on latest guidance I wouldn't expect more than an inch in lower DE, and probably nothing at the beaches. And whats with the 1-2 jip zone? Just kinda odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's 48 here and having little effect on the snow. The ground can't warm much with snow on top of it.We'll be mostly snow free here by tomorrow though I still have some mini glaciers right next to my building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yea that's ugly. Is that not sleet? I only chose hr 42 because that seemed to be the last point before D.C. dropped below freezing. Here is hr 45. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is that not sleet? I only chose hr 42 because that seemed to be the last point before D.C. dropped below freezing. Here is hr 45. Am I missing something? with heavy precip rates, it should be wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is that not sleet? I only chose hr 42 because that seemed to be the last point before D.C. dropped below freezing. Here is hr 45. Am I missing something? That one is better I think. If rates are good, it'd be a glob of wet snow I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 it's a huge problem for DC...that is a horrible sounding Shortly after that it might transition to sleet. Somewhere around 15Z it probably goes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I like how everyone calls nam useless that far our but panics when it shows unfavorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The clown maps on WxBell rock if you're a weenie. NAM still looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 fwiw, Euro skewts are finally out on Accuwx, and the good news is......there's no warm level at 800mb at IAD or BWI at 48 hrs (Monday 12Z) and both locations are isothermal freezing from 48 hrs thru 54 hrs (54 looks 31 degrees isothermal)!!! DCA is sooooo close to isothermal freezing at 48 hrs, it too should be all snow; by 54 hrs it is isothermal freezing too so, Euro is not as bad as I thought and definitely colder than last night's run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Shortly after that it might transition to sleet. Somewhere around 15Z it probably goes to snow. And according to the latest NAM, there is only about .1 -.15 falling after 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 18z RGEM at 48 -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/18_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_048.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 WPC seems bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 RGEM looks like a pounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 WPC seems bullish hpc.jpg Is that hand drawn or computer generated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Without precip type maps yet it is hard to say how much of the precip fell as snow on the RGEM since it comes out in 12 hour intervals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Without precip type maps yet it is hard to say how much of the precip fell as snow on the RGEM since it comes out in 12 hour intervals The top link above my 48hr img is that... its snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 And according to the latest NAM, there is only about .1 -.15 falling after 15z. After seeing Bufkit, it's even less than that for snow and more sleet within that .1 - .15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is this our wettest winter storm in 3 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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