PhineasC Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 In a marginal situation like this the models won't be able to nail half a degree. I don't think this run changes much except show us it really needs to come down hard for most of us to have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Warmer and QPF scores in the south. I dunno. Even if it is the NAM, still...warm south trend checked. LWX issues watch. KOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 In a marginal situation like this the models won't be able to nail half a degree. I don't think this run changes much except show us it really needs to come down hard for most of us to have a shot. We will be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Someone post a few clown maps. We will all feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 good start for LWX crap map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vern Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm reading about the 18z NAM at a birthday party. Does that make me a bad dad? NAM looks like a slopfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 good start for LWX crap map BfammlgCAAA2_eL.png bearish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 surprised they didn't include montgomery/loudon They did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 bearish maybe a bit up north.. looks pretty good around here at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Philly appears to have the worlds largest elctrosnowmagnet installed this year and during the 70s and 80s when I listened to KYW radio in PHL to hear the Accuwx live updates, they almost always had the same amount of snow as BWI, sometimes they did a little better, but sometimes BWI did never did they get so much more than BWI than they have in the past 4 years EDIT: same thing for Wilmington, they were virtually identical with snow to BWI....not any more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 The cold ground is laughing at today's mid-50s and tomorrows 60. It's 48 here and having little effect on the snow. The ground can't warm much with snow on top of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA NAM soundings at hr 42 don't look so bad right before the heaviest precip comes through, imo. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=724&sounding.y=301&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=42¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 You got it winterwxluv, ground will still be solid frozen and radiating below top 1". Lot of yapping again this time, just like last one, about how we don't kow what is what. This is a classic rain to start, switch to snow n&w of Beltway, city up for grabs but also likely goes over to snow. Gotta get decent baro. support, >30.10 essential, 30.20 would be good, 30.25 great. problem is we arent going to see pressure rises until the event is underway...in advance of the start time, pressure will be nowhere where we need it...so where the good snow line sets up is tricky...there will probably be sharp gradients in amount Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Mount Holly's first stab. Its interesting, and odd. Not sure I can follow their reasoning for coming up with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blueapple Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA NAM soundings at hr 42 don't look so bad right before the heaviest precip comes through, imo. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=724&sounding.y=301&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=42¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false 800 hot spot is ug-ly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What would you look for in a model run to indicate a chance for thundersnow? Do you need to read a skew-t for that, 700VVs? What exactly? I don't know much about severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Mount Holly's first stab. Its interesting, and odd. Not sure I can follow their reasoning for coming up with that. sno.png I think 2-4" is a fair start. Its enough to get people's attention in these parts, and they still have a few days to add if need-be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 DCA NAM soundings at hr 42 don't look so bad right before the heaviest precip comes through, imo. http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.x=724&sounding.y=301&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=01&model_init_hh=18&fhour=42¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false I'm terrible with those, but that +5 between 850 and 700 isn't a problem? Can someone explain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow. Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm terrible with those, but that +5 between 850 and 700 isn't a problem? Can someone explain? it's a huge problem for DC...that is a horrible sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 What would you look for in a model run to indicate a chance for thundersnow? Do you need to read a skew-t for that, 700VVs? What exactly? I don't know much about severe wx. I "think" the dew point temp and actual temps do a little left, right, left (saw tooth) around 600-700mb but that's a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 800 hot spot is ug-ly Yea that's ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Been out for about nine hours, what's changed? Anything? Or is this still a hot mess? Sent from my iPod touch using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Been out for about nine hours, what's changed? Anything? Or is this still a hot mess? Sent from my iPod touch Hot mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 I think 2-4" is a fair start. Its enough to get people's attention in these parts, and they still have a few days to add if need-be. I was referring to their dual 2-4 inch areas. Based on latest guidance I wouldn't expect more than an inch in lower DE, and probably nothing at the beaches. And whats with the 1-2 jip zone? Just kinda odd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's 48 here and having little effect on the snow. The ground can't warm much with snow on top of it.We'll be mostly snow free here by tomorrow though I still have some mini glaciers right next to my building. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Yea that's ugly. Is that not sleet? I only chose hr 42 because that seemed to be the last point before D.C. dropped below freezing. Here is hr 45. Am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is that not sleet? I only chose hr 42 because that seemed to be the last point before D.C. dropped below freezing. Here is hr 45. Am I missing something? with heavy precip rates, it should be wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is that not sleet? I only chose hr 42 because that seemed to be the last point before D.C. dropped below freezing. Here is hr 45. Am I missing something? That one is better I think. If rates are good, it'd be a glob of wet snow I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2014 Share Posted February 1, 2014 it's a huge problem for DC...that is a horrible sounding Shortly after that it might transition to sleet. Somewhere around 15Z it probably goes to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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